Efficient Markets Hypothesis and the Emerging Capital Market in Sri Lanka: Evidence from the Colombo Stock Exchange – A Note

The behaviour of stock prices on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) is examined with a view to determine its consistency with the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH). Runs, Autocorrelation and Cointegration tests are applied to daily, weekly and monthly CSE index data for the period of January 1991–November 1996. Results of Runs, Correlation and Cointegration tests overwhelmingly reject the serial independence hypothesis, leading to the conclusion that the behaviour of stock prices in the Colombo Stock Exchange is not consistent with the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. Tests of the-day-of-the-week-effect, however, show that there is no evidence of such a phenomenon on the Colombo Stock Exchange stock prices. Results of the tests of the-month-of-the-year-effect lead to the conclusion that CSE prices do not display any month-specific behaviour.     

Futures and forward price differential and the effect of marking‐to‐market: Australian evidence

The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of marking‐to‐market of futures contracts on the price differential between futures and forward contracts based on the predictions of the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1981) (CIR) model. Cox et al ., (1981) derive a series of propositions with respect to the relationship between futures and forward prices and a set of testable implications. These are tested empirically in this paper using Australian data from November 1991 to June 1997. The results provide evidence of the presence of significant futures and forward price differences, where the futures price is consistently below the forward price. Only partial support is found for the Cox et al ., (1981) propositions, implying that the effect of marking‐to‐market is not able to fully account for the price differential. Therefore, it is not possible to rule out the influence of other institutional factors on the futures‐forward price difference.     

The political economy of direct legislation: direct democracy and local decision–making

Local and regional governments account for an important share of total government spending and, given the decentralization trend in OECD nations, this is likely to increase. How should this spending be governed? This article argues that direct democracy is best suited to organize decision–making at the state and local level. To support this, we present the main theoretical arguments on why and how referenda and initiatives affect fiscal policy outcomes. The basic argument concerns voter control. Under representative democracy, citizens only have direct control at election time. With referenda and initiatives, citizens can selectively control their representatives on specific policies whenever they deviate sufficiently from citizens' preferences. As a result, fiscal policy outcomes are likely to more closely reflect voter preferences. We empirically test this on Swiss data since Switzerland provides a 'natural laboratory' for local governance. The governance structures of Swiss cantons and localities with respect to fiscal issues range from classic parliamentary democracy to pure direct democracy, and an important part of spending and taxation is controlled at these levels. Specifically, we estimate an econometric model of fiscal behaviour using data from 1986 to 1997 for the 26 Swiss cantons, and 1990 data on 134 local communities. It is shown that mandatory referenda on fiscal issues at both levels have a dampening effect on expenditure and revenue, and at the local level also on public debt. Combining this with existing empirical evidence leads to a relatively uncontested result, namely that elements of direct democracy are associated with sounder public finances, better economic performance and higher satisfaction of citizens.     

Employment,schooling and productivity growth

Summary This paper presents an empirical analysis of labour demand and labour productivity growth in The Netherlands. Assuming an aggregate production function with as factors capital and 3 types of labour, distinguished by educational attainment, cost minimization leads to a set of 3 labour demand relations to be estimated on time series data. Using the estimates and the implied elasticities, aggregate labour productivity growth is decomposed into factor substitution, autonomous factors, labour time shortening, economies of scale, utilization rates and the increased educational level of the working population. The contributions of substitution, utilization rates and education appear to be substantial, notably in the seventies.

List of symbols

Variables a _i Efficiency index of skill leveli - C production - h _i working-time index for skill leveli - g _i steady-state growth rate of skill leveli - K capital stock - L _i employment volume of skill leveli - L _i ^* desired level of labour skill leveli - p output price - p ^* desired output price - s _i ^* long-run static labour shares in the production value - p _k rental price of capital - P index of total factor productivity - P _l index of labour productivity - u _i utilization rate of skill leveli - u _k utilization rate of capital - w _i wage rate for skill leveli - y production volume - y _yij Hicks partial elasticities of complementarity - _i steady-state cost share of skill leveli - _k Bk steady-state cost share of capital - _f lf highest level price index in cost function nesting - _g 4 intermediate level price index in cost function nesting - _h 4 lowest level price index in cost function nesting - _i steady-state relative wage share of skill leveli - _ij Allen partial elasticities of substitution Parameters d _i l adjustment speed of skill leveli - d _p price adjustment speed - M mark-up on marginal costs - scale elasticity of production - _i distribution parameter in cost function,i = 3, g - _i distribution parameter in cost function,i = k, h - _i distribution parameter in cost function,i =1, 2 - _i autonomous labour productivity growth for skill leveli - _i cost share of skill level in base year - _f production cost index in base year - _i hours elasticity in labour efficiency index - group elasticity of substitution betweenL ₃ and (K, (L ₁,L ₂)) - _g Og group elasticity of substitution betweenK and (L ₁,L ₂) - _h 6h group elasticity of substitution betweenL ₁ andL ₂ We would like to thank B. Downey, G.M.M. Gelauff, A. Nieuwenhuis, J.M.M. Ritzen, J.C. Siebrand and an unknown referee for helpful comments on earlier drafts.     

Urban development patterns in Indonesia

The author examines recent urban development in Indonesia. "Analysis of urban developments in Indonesia has been hampered in the past by weak data. Recently, the National Urban Development Strategy (NUDS) project has generated a set of improved data. This paper aims at elaborating and supplementing the NUDS study. After a discussion of definitional problems, an analysis is carried out of urban growth rates at the provincial level. Private investment is shown to be a principal determinant of urban growth rates. Other significant determinants are rural immigration and the present level of urbanisation. Private investment is shown to be strongly biased towards provinces with large urban areas. In addition, polarisation is studied at the level of individual cities. It is found that a period of rapidly increasing polarisation has come to an end during the last decade."     

An extension of mixed estimation,with an application to forecasting new product growth

This paper extends the mixed estimation technique to handle a case in which the coefficients of a set of linear constraints are known nonlinear functions of an unknown parameter vector for which an extraneous unbiased estimate is available. This novel form of the mixed estimation technique is illustrated by applying it to the Bass innovation/diffusion model of new product growth. It is suggested that this is superior to the traditional method whereby managerial intuition is incorporated into this type of model, and is an attractive alternative to recently-suggested Bayesian methods.I thank an anonymous referee for helpful comments and references.     

L'approccio di B. De Finetti per la riassicurazione individuale proporzionale. Modelli semplificati e considerazioni operative

Viene studiato il problema della determinazione della strategia riassicurativa ottima in caso di riassicurazione individuale proporzionale, secondo l'approccio media-varianza. In particolare si analizzano alcuni modelli semplificati nei quali si raggruppano le polizze di un portafoglio sulla base di certe caratteristiche di omogeneità; ciò consente di ridurre in maniera sensibile la complessità dei calcoli previsti nella procedura generale. Completano il lavoro considerazioni di carattere operativo.

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Summary The optimal reinsurance strategy for the proportional reinsurance problem in a meanvariance framework is investigated. In order to simplify the algorithmic complexity, simple models based on the aggregation of portfolio policies are studied. Some operational remarks are added.