New Economic Indicators for Australia, 1949-84

This article attempts to identify and describe the main characteristics of Australia'a business cycles during the period 1949 to 7984 with the aid of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators, using the methodology of the International Economic lndicator project at the Center for lnternational Business Cycle Research, Columbia University, New York. The methodology to identify Australia's classical cycle and growth cycle chronologies is discussed. Reviews are made of the lead-lag patterns of, first, both chronologies in relation to the specific cycles of the individual coincident indicators, and second, the growth chronology in relation to the leading and lagging indicators. Australia's growth cycle chronology is compared with the chronology of other countries, notably of United States, United Kingdom, and Japan. The general uses of an indicator analysis are reviewed. An appendix compares the reference cycle chronologies previously available for Australia and the indicators used to obtain them.     

Returns to corporate diversification in the 1970s

This research analyzes the performance of large corporations during the business cycles of the 1970s. The analysis identifies the level of diversification preferred by a risk-averse investor at different stages of the business cycle. The data base is a group of 222 large industrial corporations for which the number of four-digit SIC production areas has been determined for each firm. The analytical method used is that of second-degree stochastic dominance, a method that is sensitive not only to mean differences in corporate performance but also to the skewness of profitability distributions. The findings indicate that risk-averters would prefer the ten-year performance of moderately diversified firms to the performance of firms with low levels of diversification. In addition, moderately diversified firms were preferred to highly diversified firms. Finally, the experience of the 1970s suggest that there are serious managerial diseconomies of diversification in recessions.     

Assessing the organizational fit of a just-in-time manufacturing system: Testing selection, interaction and systems models of contingency theory

The adoption of new manufacturing practices such as just-in-time (JIT) and total quality management (TQC) is only a first step to improving manufacturing performance. Even more critical is the fit between manufacturing practices and organizational design, structure and processes. Using archival and survey data, this paper reports the results of a field study within a Fortune 500 company that tests three operationalizations of contingency theory as discussed by Van de Ven and Drazin (1985) [The Concept of Fit in Contingency Theory, Research in Organizational Behavior, pp. 333–365]. Results show that the misfit between worker empowerment required by JIT/TQC practices and existing authoritarian management partially explain relative workgroup performance as do other conflicts within workgroups and between operators and supervisors.     

Public Choice and Urban Water Quality*

Abstract . It is the purpose of this paper to examine critically the choice of “zero discharge” as me ultimate goal of our federal water pollution policy and to demonstrate that a goal of 90 percent removal of pollutants from effluents of urban areas will be more economically efficient. Our results indicate that in reaching “Zero discharge,” there is a minimal return in water quality for urban areas which are located on large bodies of water. The final conclusion is that the substantial resources, which would be required to surpass the level of 90 percent removal of pollutants, could be employed more effectively in other social programs.     

Jan Tinbergen's Income distribution: Analysis and policies

Summary This paper is a detailed review and critique of Jan Tinbergen'sIncome Distribution: Analysis and Policies. In Part I, the books primary findings and their bases are recounted. This presentation serves as the basis for a number of questions regarding the merits of the overall approach — in particular, the empirical methodology — and the reliability of the findings. These questions are posed in Part II. In Part III, an overall appraisal of the work is offered.North-Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam, 1975.Professor of Economics and Fellow of the Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin-Madison. This article was prepared while the author was a Fellow at the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study. The work was supported in part by the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study and by funds granted to the Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin-Madison by the U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare pursuant to the Economic Opportunity Act of 1964. Helpful comments on an earlier draft by Hans Daudt, Arthur Goldberger, Victor Halberstadt, Arnold Heertje, and Jan Pen are acknowledged. A discussion with Jan Tinbergen on issues raised in his volume was especially valuable, This review article appeared in a slightly different form in the Winter, 1975 issue of theJournal of Human Resources.