TECHNICAL CHANGE IN PRODUCTION PROCESSES OF THE SEQUENTIAL INTERINDUSTRY MODEL

Transient processes important to understanding technical change are modeled using a time-varying version of the Sequential Interindustry Model, SIM. A simple process of technical change is explored, where a new production technique replaces an old one for one of an industry's production processes. Using several measures internal and external to the industry the model can help in understanding the complex processes of technical change, point to difficulties in their analysis, and suggest guidance to further examinations. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Eighth International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, Sapporo, Japan, July 1986.     

A mark II survey and critique of future research teaching in North America

In 1970, an initial survey was carried out on teaching futurism at the undergraduate level based on forty courses that could be located in Canada and the United States (Technological Forecasting and Social Change, December 1970). During 1971 and 1972, information was collected, primarily by a replicated questionnaire, on approximately 200 courses in North America; this was reported on to the Third World Future Research Conference in Bucharest (September 1972) indicating major changes that had occured over the two-year period in the field. Six generalizations were made: (1) Futurism is becoming increasingly institutionalized as more and more courses are being “futurized” to a greater or lesser degree. (2) Learning/teaching interaction tends increasingly to employ innovative or “futuristic” techniques. (3) Much influential and seminal work in future research is not made by “futurists” per se, but enters the field from outside: technological forecasting and assessment, systems analysis, gaming, model building, etc. (4) Interdisciplinary future-oriented research on contemporary problems may be adding a new dimension to human capability. (5) There is still much froth and nonsense in “futuristics”, but can future research be truly innovative without such imaginative inputs? (6) Future research may turn out to be merely a subset in the policy sciences, i.e., delivery systems.     

A comparison of alternative methods of updating input-output coefficients

In recent years there has been a growing number of input-output models of economies ranging in scale from the rural to the national. While offering invaluable insights into the interaction of sectors within an economy, the input-output model suffers from the fact that its coefficient values are altered over time due particularly to technological change. Two of the prominent techniques designed to update these technical coefficients, the RAS and linear programming methods, are compared herein with regard to changes in U.S. national coefficients between 1963 and 1967. Suggestions for improvements to the latter method are outlined.     

Influence of decision styles on use of decision models

This article discusses how the “decision style” of an administrator influences the adoption and use of particular decision models. Several “interactive” and “analytical” decision models often used to guide decision making are described and critiqued to point out their virtues and deficiencies. Propositions are suggested that contend that “systematic,” “judicial”, “speculative”, and “intuitive” styles have clear-cut preferences for a particular decision model. This model seems to be used, even when another would be more suitable. Effective decision makers are postulated to adapt their styles, or at least to see the benefits of different styles. Mixed-mode models are proposed that seem to simulate the behavior of successful decision makers.     

A review of empirical studies of aggregate marketing costs and productivity in the United States

This article reviews empirical studies of aggregate marketing cost and aggregate marketing productivity in the United States. A methodological comparison is made of five cost studies for 1929 and seven productivity studies covering a period from 1869 to 1968. The cost studies do not clarify—one way or the other—if marketing costs too much or too little. The productivity studies, on the other hand, despite a variety of methodologies, reveal a rising secular trend over the past century. Thus, it may be concluded that irrespective of changes in cost, marketing is becoming more productive.