Forecasting the region’s household income and demand by the input-output model (Case study of the Republic of Bashkortostan)

Methods of interrelated forecasting of the regional outputs of individual branches, household income, and consumption are considered. The instrument for the analysis and prediction for the parameters of the region’s economic system is a closed input-output model based on endogenous indicators of household income and demand.     

What has been happening to income distribution and poverty in the homelands∗

Based on a synthetic sample of Black households and information about employment and incomes, a provisional account is given of the distribution of income between households and poverty in the homelands in 1960, 1970 and 1980. It is concluded that while the majority of households remained poor in 1980 (80 per cent below the urban minimum living level), households above the 30th percentile of the distribution in 1980 were considerably better off in real terms than households at the corresponding percentile in 1960. Below the 30th percentile, however, relative deterioration has taken place and below the 15th percentile absolute deterioration. The massive expansion of homeland population by incorporation of metropolitan townships, resettlement and other immigration, complicates the interpretation of these findings.     

A simultaneous analysis of the labour force participation of married women and the presence of young children in the family

Summary The labour force participation of married women and the presence of young children in the family show a strongly negative correlation. In this article it is investigated whether this correlation is a reflection of a causal relationship between these two variables. To answer this question, a simultaneous logit analysis, following Mallax, is applied to data of the Dutch census of 1971 that are grouped by COROP region. The results suggest that there exists an asymmetric causal relationship between both variables with the causality running from the labour force participation of married women to the presence of young children in the family.The authors are indebted to Professors C. de Galan and C.K.F. Nieuwenburg and Mr. F.A.A.M. van Winden for valuable comments.