Globalization frustrated: The case of white goods

This paper challenges the common view that mature industries are always ripe for global strategies. Based on data from the European Domestic Appliance industry, this paper shows how changing economic conditions can diminish the value of global strategies. Critical in these shifts were simultaneous rises in demand for variety (that eroded the benefits of scale and continental market share) and decreases in manufacturing scale (that permitted new supply options), which reduced the extent of the strategic market to national dimensions. They added complexity that decreased the profitability of the global players and increased that of national strategies. The fluctuating fortunes of leading firms are shown to have been caused primarily by choices of strategy, not by national factor costs.     

Trade uncertainty and the two-step procedure: The choice of numeraire and exact indexation

Summary In a small open economy it is optimal to first maximize national income and second choose the best consumption point.The same two-step procedure under (quantitative) uncertainty is suboptimal if one of the goods is used as numéraire. Optimality is restored however, if nominal prices are deflated by the exact price index. Hence there is equivalence between the appropriate two-step procedure and the introduction of a stock market under uncertainty (Diamond 1967) under ideal circumstances.I would like to thank, without implicating, Peter van Bergeijk, Steven Brakman, Willem Buiter, Richard Gigengack, Jean-Marie, Viaene, Casper de Vries and an anonymous referee for useful comments and Angelique van Haasteren and Martijn Herrmann for graphical assistance.     

DEVIL'S ADVOCACY IN MANAGERIAL DECISION-MAKING

There is some debate about the potential value of using devil's advocates in top-level organizational decision-making. In this paper, the contrasting views on this question are summarized briefly and the field and laboratory research on the devil's advocate and related techniques is discussed. This research is then used as the basis for detailed suggestions on the effective use of devil's advocates in improving managerial decisions.     

Income distribution,economic structure and employment in South Africa

This paper discusses the impact of a redistribution of current income from the White to the Black population on the distribution of sectoral output, and total employment by means of a semi‐closed input‐output model.

The results show that a redistribution of current income towards Black households — which no doubt will have positive social and political repercussions — has a non‐negative effect on GDP and a definite positive effect on the performance of sectors with a high private consumption expenditure component, as well as on total employment.     

The role of extension in the development of the farmer as entrepreneur

Different viewpoints were expressed at the 1990 annual national conference of the South African Society for Agricultural Extension regarding the role of extension in the development of the farmer as entrepreneur. It is expected that public funding will increasingly be limited to functions of general public interest. To achieve independence farmers should be willing to expose themselves to entrepreneur development stimuli. it is in the public interest to develop scarce human, economic and natural resources. Research findings indicate distinct behavioral differences between entrepreneurs of differing perceptions. A comprehensive interdisciplinary education is recommended for agriculturalists. Because needs change, education programmes must be re‐evaluated from time to time. It serves little purpose to educate people in extension who do not have a technical message to communicate. The state extension service seeks closer cooperation and liaison with agricultural co‐operative and private sector know‐how. Departmental policy will probably be less rigid in future.

A clear distinction should be made between information and extension services. The adoption of an ethical code for extensionists may be opportune. Relevancy is an important contributing factor to extensionist credibility.     

Fit performance of several programs used for non-linear least squares problems

Seven computerprograms for non-linear regression or curve fitting problems are compared. The comparison of the programs, running in different computing centra, is restricted to the fit performance. Six model functions are fitted according to the least squares criterion to data series, arising from practical work. The special least squares minimization programs turned out to be better suited for these problems than general optimizing programs.     

Estimation of a non-invertible moving average process: The case of overdifferencing

The effect of differencing all of the variables in a properly specified regression equation is examined. Excessive use of the difference transformation induces a non-invertible moving average (MA) process in the disturbances of the transformed regression. Monte Carlo techniques are used to examine the effects of overdifferencing on the efficiency of regression parameter estimates, inferences based on these estimates, and tests for overdifferenccing based on the estimator of the MA parameter for the disturbances of the differences regression. Overall, the problem of overdifferencing is not serious if careful attention is paid to the properties of the disturbances of regression equations.