Economics at the Antitrust Division: 2017–2018

This article describes some of the work of Antitrust Division economists over the past year, with a focus on modeling. It begins by illustrating the mapping from evidence to prediction using tools for assessing the effects of mergers using Bertrand, Cournot, and auction models. It then turns to two hot topics in competition policy: the implications of claims of increasing margins for merger enforcement and the validity of claims of increasing concentration. Finally, it considers how mergers affect prices in bargaining models.     

Who's pulling the strings? The influence of network structure on standard dominance

Innovative systems and infrastructures require generally accepted common compatibility standards to enable components of such systems to interoperate. In some cases, various standards are developed by competing standards organizations, often resulting in standards battles. This paper focuses on factors that affect the outcome of these standards battles, and, specifically, on the effect of the structure of the industry-wide standards networks on standard dominance. The empirical context is the consumer electronics, telecommunications, and ICT arenas. We conduct a study of 103 standards organizations from 2000 to 2011. We find support for the hypothesis that standards that are supported by standards organizations that have a central position in the industry-wide standards network have a high chance of achieving dominance.     

Incorporating Prior Information into A GMM Objective For Mixed Logit Demand Systems

Random parameters demand system estimates can generate upward sloping demands and imply margins outside of the theoretical bounds for profit maximization. If such violations are numerous enough, they can confound merger simulation exercises. Using Lerner indices for multiproduct firms playing static Bertrand games, we find that up to 35 per cent of implied margins for beer are outside the bounds. We characterize downward sloping demand and the theoretical bounds for profit maximization as prior information and extend the GMM objective function, incorporating inequality moments for product‐level own‐elasticities and brand level or product level Lerner indices. Very few violations remain when an inequality constrained estimator is used.     

Network formation models with costs for establishing links

Abstract. In this paper we study endogenous formation of communication networks in situations where the economic possibilities of groups of players can be described by a cooperative game. We concentrate on the influence that the existence of costs for establishing communication links has on the communication networks that are formed. The starting points in this paper are two game-theoretic models of the formation of communication links that were studied in the literature fairly recently, the extensive-form model by Aumann and Myerson (1988) and the strategic-form model that was studied by Dutta et al. (1998). We follow their analyses as closely as possible and use an extension of the Myerson value to determine the payoffs to the players in communication situations when forming links is not costless. We find that it is possible that as the costs of establishing links increase, more links are formed.     

Lifecycle‐based donor performance analysis

With charities of all sizes now having the ability to collect and store very large quantities of data about their donors on in‐house database systems, detailed donor performance analyses have an increasingly essential role to play in the effective planning and management of fundraising. If, however, such activities are to support fully the work of fundraisers then it is important that they are undertaken from the perspective of the fundraiser rather than of the specialist data analyst. This paper introduces an approach to donor performance analysis that is founded on what is termed a ‘donor lifecycle model’. The aim of this is to provide a formal analysis methodology that provides end results that can be more easily interpreted by nonspecialists and so more effectively used in support of the efficient planning of fundraising programmes. Copyright © 2000 Henry Stewart Publications