The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: Evidence from Hong Kong and Taiwan

This paper investigates whether the macroeconomic performance of a small- open economy depends on the choice of exchange rate regimes. Hong Kong and Taiwan - two economies with many similar macroeconomic characteristics, but different in their choices of exchange rate regimes - provide a good setting to study the relation between the choice of exchange rate regime and macro-economic performance. We examine the basic facts of growth and inflation and the coefficients' stability of their vector autoregression (VAR), as well as cyclical characters of other aggregate variables in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Our empiric finding indicates that macroeconomic performance is not systematically related to exchange rate regimes.     

国内外甲基异丁基酮生产与市场分析

2006年世界甲基异丁基酮生产能力约为392.5 kt,主要用于溶剂和橡胶助剂领域,2006年国内甲基异丁基酮生产能力为15 kt,需求量约为47.7 kt左右.本文介绍国内外甲基异丁基酮生产现状、市场需求,重点分析国内甲基异丁基酮供求现状,目前我国已成为甲基异丁基酮主要消费国.并对我国甲基异丁基酮工业发展提出一些建议.     

大连普兰店北部乡镇与日本同纬度地区资源开发的比较分析

文章基于文献研究以及大连市普兰店北部乡镇的农业发展现状，依照科学发展观的原理，分析了同纬度地区日本的农业资源开发模式，就我国目前的自然条件、农业生产状况、开发经营模式、开发利用效益、农业发展组织模式、化肥施用水平等方面与日本进行比较，为北部乡镇的资源开发和经济发展提供有益的启示。     

Emotional and interpersonal competencies and leader development

A variety of recent leader development programs have focused on improving leaders' emotional and interpersonal competencies. Decades of leadership research suggest that these “people skills” are crucial for leader effectiveness. This paper reviews the history of these leader development programs as well as research on emotional and interpersonal competencies. Suggestions for grounding leader development programs in sound research on emotional and social competencies, as well as an agenda for future research on the development of leader emotional and interpersonal skills, are provided.     

Financial Development and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Six MENA Countries

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth for six Middle Eastern and North African countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia), within a quadvariate vector autoregressive framework. We employ four different measures of financial development and apply the augmented vector autoregression vector (VAR) methodology of Toda and Yamamoto to test for Granger causality. Our empirical results strongly support the hypothesis that finance leads to growth in five out of the six countries. Only in Israel could weak support be found for causality running from economic growth to financial development but no causality in the other direction. These findings suggest the need to accelerate the financial reforms that have been launched since the mid 1980s and to improve the efficiency of these countries’ financial systems to stimulate saving/investment and, consequently, long‐term economic growth.     

在做大商业品牌中正确处理六个关系

本文分析了入世后,上海企业家在做大商业品牌中,应正确处理好的六个关系,以及有关的述评。     

Looking for contagion in currency futures markets

This article tests whether there are pure contagion effects in both conditional means and volatilities among British pound, Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc futures markets during the 1992 ERM crisis. A conditional version of international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) is used to control for economic fundamentals. The empirical results indicate that overall there are no mean spillovers among those futures markets, but they are detected during the crisis period. That is, past return shocks originating in any one of the four markets have no impact on the other three markets during the entire sample period, suggesting that these markets are weak‐form efficient. However, this weak‐form market efficiency fails to hold during the market turmoil, especially for British pound and Swiss franc, and the sources of contagion‐in‐mean effects are mainly due to the return shocks originating in three European currency futures markets. As for the contagion‐in‐volatility, it is detected for British pound only because its conditional volatility is influenced by the negative volatility shocks from Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc, with Deutsche mark playing the dominant role in generating these shocks. JEL Classifications: C32; F31; G12. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:957–988, 2003     

MANAGING VENDOR INVENTORY IN A DUAL LEVEL DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

Collaborative arrangements among members of the supply chain have received a great deal of interest in recent years as a means of reducing costs. One such arrangement is vendor managed inventory (VMI). VMI allows the vendor to make decisions concerning the quantity and timing of deliveries to the retailer. Such an arrangement offers the potential of a more efficient supply chain by removing the negative effects of retail ordering policies. A thorough review of the literature was conducted to identify factors likely to impact the performance of a VMI partnership. Computer simulation was used to study the effects of these factors from both the vendor's and retailer's perspectives. The results lend insight into the performance of VMI and guidance for managers as to the environments in which VMI is most effective.     

Are Expected Inflation Rates and Expected Real Rates Negatively Correlated? A Long‐Run Test of the Mundell‐Tobin Hypothesis

Some empirical evidence suggests that the expected real interest and expected inflation rates are negatively correlated. This hypothesis of negative correlation is sometimes known as the Mundell‐Tobin hypothesis. In this article we reinvestigate this negative relation from a long‐term point of view using cointegration analysis. The data on the historical interest rate on T‐bills and the inflation rate indicate that the Mundell‐Tobin hypothesis does not hold in the long run for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. We also obtain similar results using the real interest rate on index‐linked gilt traded in the United Kingdom.