Oil Price Shocks and the Asymmetric Adjustment of UK Output: A Markov-switching approach

This paper examines the role played by real oil price shocks in influencing the growth in UK GDP. Our particular interest is the possibility that asymmetries might exist in such a relationship. Using Hamilton's regime-switching estimation, we consider whether oil price shocks influence both the deepness and duration of the business cycle. We find that asymmetries arise insofar as oil price appreciation is most likely to curtail the duration of the expansionary phase of the business cycle. This result is in contrast to existing studies of the oil price-macroeconomy relationship that have largely concerned the US.     

RELATIONSHIPS AMONG FARMERS' GOALS AND FARM ADJUSTMENT STRATEGIES: SOME EMPIRICS OF A MULTIDIMENSIONAL APPROACH

A knowledge of farmers' goals provides an important basis for understanding farmers' preferences for, and choices among, various farm adjustment strategies. Such information is also valuable in estimating the acceptability to farmers of various government measures to assist rural adjustment. The goals of Queensland graziers, with and without a history of farm expansion, are compared. Different adjustment strategies are analysed in terms of the ways in which they satisfy different individual goals. A dimensional analysis of relationships among goals and adjustment strategies reveals that, for those willing to expand but without a history of expansion, income and social goals are at odds with each other. For these graziers, property expansion seemed to be the strategy most likely to meet both these goals. For graziers with a history of expansion, income goals were complementary with social goals.     

Asian real interest rates, nonlinear dynamics, and international parity

This study tests for nonlinearities in the real interest differentials of four South East Asian economies with respect to Japan and the United States. The logistic and exponential smooth transition regression models are applied to monthly data over the sample period 1977M1–2000M3. There is evidence of nonlinearities in Asian real interest differentials where nonlinearities are often captured by the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model. The extent of nonlinearities varies across the sample with the Singapore–Japan and Thailand–Japan differentials exhibiting the sharpest transition from one regime to another. Large shocks to real interest parity (RIP) are more likely to lead to the reestablishment of parity at a faster rate than small shocks. Modeling the nonlinear stochastic dynamics of RIP can thus be useful for policymaking purposes in recovering information on monetary and financial crises.     

打破中国制造的“低成本”魔咒

只要中国人做了,其他人就不要做了。这是当今制造业的生动写照。但是,中国制造的破坏性策略使越来越多的企业陷入低成本的魔咒,劳动力成本、原材料和能源价格都在上涨,以及人民币持续升值,中国制造企业面临着严峻挑战。     

“The Current State of Genetic Testing: An Insurance Industry Perspective on the Rush to Legislate”, Charles S. Jones,Jr., January, 1999

Abstract

We propose a new type of retirement plan, aimed at achieving a compromise between stability in cost for the plan sponsor and guaranteed accumulation for the participants. The behavior of the plan is compared with that of a money purchase plan for both deterministic and stochastic investment scenarios. The proposed plan is shown to provide more stable and predictable benefits than a money purchase plan. Obstacles to the establishment of such a plan, from the perspective of U.S. pensions legislation, are considered.     

Does Question Format Matter? Valuing an Endangered Species

A three-way treatment design is used to compare contingent valuation response formats. Respondents are asked to value an endangered species (the red-cockaded woodpecker) and the restoration of its habitat following a natural disaster. For three question formats (open-ended, payment card, and double-bounded dichotomous choice), differences in survey response rates, item non-response rates, and protest bids are examined. Bootstrap techniques are used to compare means across formats and to explore differences in willingness to pay (WTP) distribution functions. Convergent validity is found in a comparison of mean WTP values, although some differences are apparent in the cumulative distribution functions. Differences across formats are also identified in item non-response rates and proportion of protest bids. Overall, the payment card format exhibits desirable properties relative to the other two formats.     

Predicting Consumers' Preferences for and Likely Buying of Local and Organic Produce: Results of a Choice Experiment

Data from consumer intercept surveying and a hypothetical choice experiment conducted in 11 Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA grocery stores were used to predict consumers' preferences for and likely buying of local and organic produce. Results indicate that consumers strongly prefer produce with local and/or organic attributes, but are generally less likely to buy produce with these attributes. Consumers' sociodemographic characteristics, knowledge of different produce types, distance traveled for food shopping, and metro-area location affected preferences and likely buying behavior. These results will help local farmers in New Mexico and other states improve their competitiveness, preserve agricultural traditions, and contribute to economic development.