Robust Measures of Earnings Surprises

Event studies of market efficiency measure earnings surprises using the consensus error (CE), given as actual earnings minus the average professional forecast. If a subset of forecasts can be biased, the ideal but difficult to estimate parameter‐dependent alternative to CE is a nonlinear filter of individual errors that adjusts for bias. We show that CE is a poor parameter‐free approximation of this ideal measure. The fraction of misses on the same side (FOM), which discards the magnitude of misses, offers a far better approximation. FOM performs particularly well against CE in predicting the returns of U.S. stocks, where bias is potentially large.     

Country asymmetry,trade agreements,and transfers

Using a standard 2 × 2 trade agreement model, I show that the welfare effects of a free trade agreement (FTA) depend on the asymmetry on supply and demand functions. When countries are sufficiently asymmetric with respect to the size or the demand functions, the small country tends to be better off, while the large country is worse off. Thus, the small country must compensate the large country for the FTA to be incentive‐compatible. However, in the presence of sufficient asymmetry in the supply functions, the small country is worse off, while the bigger is better off. In this case, the transfer must flow from the large to the small country. This last finding helps explain why some FTAs between rich and poor countries provide for adjustment transfers to the latter.     

在线购买信任模式的中国实证研究

信任的缺失是使消费者不愿在线购买的主要原因之一。为提供中国在线购买信任问题一个有效的解决方案,基于对Cheung and Lee(2000)和Kit Lui(2003)等在线购买信任模式实证研究结果和局限性的认识,本论文提出一个修正模式并在中国大陆的情境下开展实证研究。研究结果显示,在所有网上购买信任的前置变量中,网上商店的有用性和消费经历与在线购买信任表现出更为强烈的正相关。并且,消费经历与有用性不但通过在线购买信任变量积极影响在线购买意图,并且对在线购买意图的产生也有较强的、直接的积极作用。另外,在线信任等变量在人口统计学特征上和消费习惯上表现出一定的差异,男性、学历较高、上网时间长、网购次数多、每次花费金额多、预测未来两年在线消费比例上升的在线消费者群体,其对在线购买的信任更多地表现在有用性和安全控制的良好认知上。     

Optimal mixed taxation,credit constraints,and the timing of income tax reporting

We study optimal income and commodity tax policy with credit‐constrained low‐income households. Workers receive an even flow of income during the tax year, but report their incomes and make tax payments (receive transfers) at the end of the year. They spend their disposable income on multiple commodities over the year. We show that differentiated subsidies on commodities can be optimal even if the Atkinson–Stiglitz Theorem conditions apply. When the optimal policy leaves low‐income households with binding credit constraints, it may be optimal to subsidize differentially the good that they consume in higher proportion. Uniform subsidies would also relax the credit constraint, but would be more costly to the government since they would equally benefit unconstrained households. Numerical examples suggest that commodity tax differentiation increases with basic needs and with the interest rate at which government borrows.     

EMPIRICAL PERFORMANCE OF GARCH MODELS WITH HEAVY‐TAILED INNOVATIONS

We introduce a new type of heavy‐tailed distribution, the normal reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution (NRIG), to the GARCH and Glosten‐Jagannathan‐Runkle (1993) GARCH models, and compare its empirical performance with two other popular types of heavy‐tailed distribution, the Student's t distribution and the normal inverse Gaussian distribution (NIG), using a variety of asset return series. Our results illustrate that there is no overwhelmingly dominant distribution in fitting the data under the GARCH framework, although the NRIG distribution performs slightly better than the other two types of distribution. For market indexes series, it is important to introduce both GJR‐terms and the NRIG distribution to improve the models’ performance, but it is ambiguous for individual stock prices series. Our results also show the GJR‐GARCH NRIG model has practical advantages in quantitative risk management. Finally, the convergence of numerical solutions in maximum‐likelihood estimation of GARCH and GJR‐GARCH models with the three types of heavy‐tailed distribution is investigated.     

DOES SIZE MATTER? THE INFLUENCE OF FIRM SIZE ON WORKING CONDITIONS,JOB SATISFACTION AND QUIT INTENTIONS

Using a detailed survey on Spanish workers, this paper investigates the relationship between firm size and working conditions, the extent to which firm size differences in workers' job satisfaction can be accounted for by differences in their work environment and the impact of firm size on workers' quit intentions. The results indicate that: (1) employees in larger firms face a worse work environment; (2) working in large firms significantly reduces job satisfaction when no controls for working conditions are included, but taking them into account makes differentials across size categories statistically insignificant; and (3) no systematic differences exist in intentions to quit across firm size categories, irrespective of conditioning on wages.     

IFRS Adoption in Emerging Markets: The Case of Jordan

The aim of this study is to research the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in Jordan, which was one of the first Middle Eastern emerging economies to adopt IFRS. The paper investigates the related factors that pressure and prevent such adoption over time, and illustrates the developmental aspects of such adoption. An interpretive methodology is employed, and perceptions of the study's participants are analysed regarding the adoption of IFRS in Jordan, which is an area that is under researched. Semi‐structured interviews were undertaken to collect Jordanian experts’ perceptions. Based on the empirical data analysis and prior theoretical and empirical literature, an adoption model was developed, which can serve future studies as well. The model illustrates the paradox of accounting changes in emerging economies, in which the actual conditions that pressure IFRS adoption are also the conditions that prevent full adoption. The model also provides an explanation of the implementation process of IFRS in emerging economies at both country and corporation levels. It combines practical features and related theories in an integrative model seeking to explain the phenomenon of IFRS as a new accounting regulation change.     

SEPARATING EFFICIENCY AND EQUALITY,AUTOMATION, AND PIKETTY'S THEORY OF INCREASING CAPITAL SHARE

Despite disincentive effects, it is more efficient to tackle inequality by general equality promotion policies, including tax/transfers, than by trying to pursue equality in specific issues or policies. The latter policy also has the same degree of disincentive effects as the general policy but has additional distortive effects. While Piketty' concern with inequality is well taken and his proposal to reduce inequality has merits, his argument on the inevitability of increasing capital share under capitalism and the condition of rate of returns to capital being larger than the rate of growth in incomes (r > g) is not correct. (JEL D3, D6, H)     

BUYERS,SELLERS, AND MIDDLEMEN: VARIATIONS ON SEARCH‐THEORETIC THEMES

We study exchange that is bilateral but indirect—it involves chains of intermediaries, or middlemen—in markets with frictions. These frictions include search and bargaining problems. We show how, and how many, intermediaries might get involved in a chain, and how bargaining with one depends on upcoming negotiations with those downstream. The roles of buyers, sellers, money, and prices are discussed, allowing us to clarify some neglected connections between different branches of search theory. Pursuing one such connection, with monetary economics, we show how bubbles can emerge in intermediation, even with fully rational agents and perfect foresight.     

Dissecting Exchange Rates and Fundamentals in the Modern Floating Era: The Role of Permanent and Transitory Shocks

In this paper, we apply a permanent–transitory decomposition method to analyze the link between nominal exchange rates and fundamentals in the modern floating era. The results suggest that transitory shocks dominate nominal exchange rate fluctuations, while permanent shocks dominate the variations in fundamentals. Therefore, the findings suggest that the nominal exchange rate should not be approximated by a pure random walk. Moreover, we find that unobserved fundamentals in the Taylor rule model can explain the transitory components in exchange rates.