政府审计功能协同与财政支出效率:理论与实证

本文在构建审计功能协同发展影响财政支出效率的理论模型基础上,采用动态空间面板模型考察了"免疫系统"观下审计功能协同发展对财政支出效率的影响效应.研究表明:中国省域财政支出效率呈现出明显的空间溢出效应和俱乐部集聚特征;财政支出效率在时间单维度、空间单维度分别表现为惯性效应和标尺效应.审计功能协同发展对财政支出效率的影响呈现先上升后下降的倒"U"型特征,充分发挥审计功能协同对财政支出效率的提升效应具有较大潜力.     

Asia-Pacific Stock Market Integration: New Evidence by Incorporating Regime Changes

ABSTRACT

This work provides new evidence of Asia-Pacific stock market integration by incorporating the regime changes of each stock market through the smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model. According to empirical results, most Asia-Pacific stock market returns follow STAR dynamics to a significant degree with more rapid and frequent regime changes of a shorter nature compared with G7 markets. A series of STAR-based Granger causality tests reveal evidence of stronger equity market integration compared with linear Granger causality tests. We also find that Asia-Pacific stock markets are integrated in different levels. Finally, we provide evidence that in the early twenty-first century the influence of China and the United States on Asia-Pacific stock markets has been maintained while that of Japan has been weakened.     

从南昌高校看我国大学生的医疗保险

文章以南昌12所高校中随机抽样获得问卷数据,采用EXCEL数据录入,导入SPSS18.0软件进行统计分析得来的结论为例,分析我国大学生医疗保险目前存在的问题,并提出相应的改善建议,旨在为提高和完善大学生医疗保险制度提供参考性意见。     

Investment financing: evidence from Korea

This study examines the relative importance of various forms of capital in financing investments by Korean firms. Our results from the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method indicate that, unlike U.S. firms, Korean firms rely substantially on cash holdings to finance investments. These results also suggest that Korean firms use long‐term debt more actively than equity issuance to finance investments. Subgroup analyses show that large firms and Chaebol‐affiliated firms use more long‐term debt but less equity issuance than comparison firms do, suggesting that debt capacity allows firms to reduce the use of equity issuance. However, there is little evidence that financing decisions are driven by information asymmetry. The results from the quantile regression (QR) method suggest that Korean firms tend to use debt capital more than they do equity capital at low and medium levels of investments, while their reliance on equity capital increases at high levels of investments.     

Analyst Optimism and Incentives under Market Uncertainty

We examine how analysts’ changing incentives driven by changes in market uncertainty affect their forecast optimism. Analysts issue more optimistically biased earnings forecasts and buy recommendations under high market uncertainty (VIX). The lower reputational costs and larger benefits of optimistic output explain the increased optimistic output: Analysts are less likely to be penalized for inaccuracy and can stimulate more trading activity from optimistically biased output when market uncertainty is high. We find that the likelihood of analysts’ turnover decreases, while the trading volume associated with optimistic output increases, with VIX. No evidence suggests that analysts’ self‐selection affects our findings on optimism and market uncertainty.     

Investment Decisions in Anticipation of Recessions and Outperformance of Pre-Acting Firms

We empirically examine whether firms make investment decisions in anticipation of recessions and subsequently perform better. Using a large quarterly dataset of fixed asset investments for U.S. firms during 1984–2012, we show that not all firms efficiently adjust their investment decisions in anticipation of a recession. However, we find that pre-acting firms that properly adjust their investment decisions (i.e., underinvest) before a recession outperform re-acting firms that fail to make proper investment decisions (i.e., overinvest) before a recession in subsequent returns on assets, returns on investments, and market-adjusted return measures.     

资本计量方法改革、商业银行风险偏好与信贷配置

为提高银行业风险管理水平与信贷配置效率,监管部门于2014年开展了资本管理高级方法的试点工作。本文基于上市银行2010至2016年的微观数据,与银监会公布的行业信贷风险进行匹配,采用双重差分和三重差分法,实证分析前述改革如何影响试点银行的风险偏好和信贷调配。研究发现,在资本管理高级方法实施后:(1)试点银行显著降低了风险加权资产的规模;(2)试点银行风险偏好的变化存在非线性的特征,在调减高风险行业贷款的同时,并未显著增加最安全行业的贷款,而是增加了风险略高行业的贷款,体现出试点银行对风险与收益的权衡;(3)进一步将行业划分为“虚”与“实”,研究发现试点银行减少了房地产业(“虚”)、制造业(“实”)和建筑业(“实”)贷款,显著增加了金融业(“虚”)贷款。本文研究不仅丰富了资本监管方面的文献,也对金融支持供给侧结构性改革具有启示意义。     

The effects of regulation on industry structure and trade generation in the US securities industry

This study investigates the effects of Regulation FD and the Global Research Analyst Settlement on market share within the US securities industry as well as the determinants of market share during 1996–2004. We find that these regulations did not cause top brokers to lose market share in spite of their reduction of information asymmetries existing within the brokerage industry. They did, however, significantly reduce the quarterly variability in market share changes. We find that Regulation FD and the Global Research Analyst Settlement reduce the importance of an all-star analyst, issuer affiliation, and analyst optimism for gaining brokerage market share. We further discover that the Global Research Analyst Settlement increases the importance of coverage as a market share determinant while reducing the value of analyst experience for non-top brokers. We find that our results remain robust even when we limit our analysis to a set of pure brokerage firms.     

邢邯城际铁路发展可行性浅析

近年来,随着国内城市化进程加快,城际交通相关规划项目明显增多.城际铁路因提高邻近城区间出行便捷度,促进人员流动,有助于城区间各资源的相互协调及合理分配,为科学推进城市化建设在交通领域提供重要价值.冀南地区邢台、邯郸两市,因沿铁路分布城区数量多,距离近,人员往来密切,铁路区位优势大.本文通过论证冀南地区邢邯城际铁路发展可...