旅游对传统村落的影响研究——以安徽齐云山为例

旅游影响一直是国内外旅游研究的重要课题,旅游地居民对旅游发展的感知是研究旅游影响的重要途径。此次调查以安徽省黄山市休宁县齐云山为例,采用问卷调查和现场访谈相结合的方式,运用SPSS、CATPACTM等软件对调查结果进行数理统计,从居民与游客角度分析了旅游开发给齐云山居民带来的经济、社会文化、环境的若干影响,以及居民对旅游业所持的态度。文章着重于探讨居民对于因旅游开发所带来的村落影响的感知,以及他们对于当前旅游影响的评测和对未来旅游发展的期待。     

Foot-and-mouth Disease and Trade Restrictions: Latin American Access to Pacific Rim Beef Markets

Owing to their eradication of foot-and-mouth disease Argentina and Uruguay have recently been granted access to the fresh beef markets of the United States and Canada. This raises the prospect of Latin American suppliers gaining access to other Pacific Rim markets, and of increasing the integration of the Pacific and non-Pacific beef markets. A two-commodity spatial equilibrium model is constructed for the base year 1995. Projections are then made for the year 2001 under various policy and other scenarios. In some instances, major changes in trade patterns may result.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE TO PRICE UNDER CERTAINTY,WITH REFERENCE TO THE UNITED KINGDOM EGG MARKET, 1954 TO 1966

Hen egg production in the United Kingdom expanded throughout the 1950's and early 1960's in the face of successive reductions in the guaranteed price thus raising questions about the efficacy of the guaranteed price system as a production control mechanism. The objective of this analysis is to estimate the guaranteed price elasticity of supply of hen eggs over the twelve-year period 1954 to 1966. Two models are used, a conventional linear form and a Nerlove type lagged model. The independent variables considered are the guaranteed price, the price of feed, and egg yield as a proxy for technology. The non-lagged equation is the more satisfactory and gives an elasticity value of 1.66, suggesting that flock owners were highly sensitive to changes in the guaranteed price. This sensitivity tended to be obscured by producer eagerness to profit from technological advance, which was the predominant factor affecting the scale of egg production over the period.     

Rejoinder to Peltzman

Since 2008, the U.S. economy has been mired in the second worst economic crisis in its history. Conceivably, massive government spending could bring the economy out of this slump as massive war spending ultimately ended the Great Depression of the 1930s. However, a far superior strategy exists: guaranteeing employment accompanied by retraining to enable all unemployed workers to become absorbed into the regular work force. Beyond ending the crisis, the superiority of this strategy is that it would institutionalize a procedure for insuring that, in an increasingly technologically dynamic and open economy, workers would possess the necessary skills for available jobs. Guaranteeing employment would also eliminate the ecological costs associated with the need to seek growth to generate employment at practically any cost. Finally, it would establish a new moral social contract, whereby everyone is granted the dignity that accompanies being a productive member of society. Welfare for those able to work could disappear, along with the degradation and humiliation accompanying it.     

Labour-Market Developments at a Time of Heightened Uncertainty

These are testing times for labour-market policies in Indonesia. The country faces two major challenges in an unpredictable international and domestic environment: providing people with better, more secure jobs and raising productivity to help raise living standards and reduce poverty. Over the past several months, new global and domestic threats to economic growth have emerged and may hinder progress in jobs and productivity. In the longer term, the government is searching for new strategies to increase productivity, with a focus on supply-side investments in skills and training. In relation to events abroad, uncertainty has increased over the early initiatives taken by the new US president and his nationalist administration, such as the scuttling of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. At home, likely to be of some significance for economic policy are mass actions that were levelled against Jakarta’s governor but de facto also directed against the government. In the medium term, our assessment of the record of the Joko Widodo (Jokowi) government on the labour market is mixed. Over the past two years, growth has been slower than under the previous administration and hence job creation has also been muted. The experience of a handful of countries in Asia suggests that the government might have done more to stimulate economic growth and create jobs. The disappointing performance of manufacturing stands out. Yet inflation has fallen and the slide in the value of international trade—both exports and imports—has reversed in recent months. Improved fiscal management and a generally successful tax amnesty are other pluses. There was also an unexpected but considerable fall in unemployment in 2015–16, according to labour-force statistics. Some policies, such as the new approach to minimum wages, seem to have had beneficial effects for both business and the economy, and Indonesia has done well in some international rankings, such as the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business index. However, the picture for the medium to longer term seems less bright for the labour market. There has been much talk about raising productivity by improving skills through government support for investment in training and apprenticeships, as well as by expanding vocational training along the lines of the German model. Expanding tourism is seen as one solution to the lack of employment for young secondary- and tertiary-educated jobseekers. But we have an impression of policy-making on the run; often, the argument for government intervention has not been made clearly enough. We argue that Indonesia still lacks a coherent, well-thought-out plan to increase jobs and productivity.     

The UK and the Euro: Debating the British Decision

This article seeks to inform and enliven the debate on whether or not Britain should join the euro. The central focus of the article involves interviews with two leading economists, Professor Willem Buiter (Chief Economist and Special Counsellor to the President, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) who strongly supports the case for joining, and Professor Patrick Minford (Professor of Applied Economics, Cardiff Business School) who takes the opposite stance. The article begins with an introduction which places the interviews in context and concludes with a final section summarising the central points of commonality and departure arising in the interviews with Professors Buiter and Minford.     

Industrial incentives,domestic resource costs and resource allocation in Madagascar

This paper uses 104 episodes from the Hufbauer et al. (1985, 1990) dataset to examine the correlates of classes of outcomes of economic sanctions. The parsimonious equations presented identify the characteristics of sanctions episodes conducive to success rather than marginal success, and the characteristics productive of failure rather than marginal failure. Failure is most likely if there is significant third party assistance to the target, and if the pre-existing trade linkage between sender and target is small. Success is most easily achieved when the objective is not classified as 'modest', and when pre-sanction relations between sender and target are cordial or neutral. The equations presented overcome data and methodological flaws of earlier studies, exhibit reasonable predictive accuracy, and satisfy a battery of tests of statistical significance, hypothesized coefficient sign, goodness of fit, high likelihood and informational efficiency.     

Leisure corrupted: an artist's portrait of leisure in a changing society

Theoretical arguments that leisure is the basis of any culture are available. Yet, scarcity in the literature of serious consideration of leisure in non-Western societies demonstrates that the topic has been neglected. One possible explanation for the failure to achieve progress in cultural comparisons of leisure is the lack of data. At least three approaches permit this type of comparison. This paper focuses on a literary approach by investigating how East Africa's most prominent creative writer, Ngugi wa Thiong'o, treats leisure in his most important English language novels. This analysis centers on two of his novels, A Grain of Wheat and Petals of Blood. The two novels are complex, intricate stories drawing heavily on Western philosophy and literature as well as African folklore. Although Ngugi suggests that leisure is the foundation of civilization, the fibre that makes the cloth of society, he portrays leiusre distinctively in social terms likely to surprise those familiar with Western traditions of leisure.     

Musings on the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Increases

In considering the macroeconomic effects of oil price increases, it is important to be mindful of whether changes come from the supply or demand side and whether they are accompanied by impacts on financial markets. Also, it is important to know whether a change is likely to be temporary or permanent and whether it can be offset by policy responses. Finally, the short-run effects of oil price changes are likely to be different from the long-run effects. This paper explores these questions and their ramifications for macroeconomic growth.     

Constraints to Park Visitation: A Meta-Analysis of North American Studies

The constraints that curb visitation to parks have received considerable research attention and remain an important issue. Constraints to outdoor leisure in parks include structural barriers, such as cost of entry, interpersonal barriers, for example, lack of a partner to visit with, or intrapersonal barriers, including lack of interest. Using a meta-analysis approach, this article integrates the findings of 22 North American studies with 541 estimates, conducted over a 30-year period, to determine the key constraints to park visitation based on various socio-demographic factors. The findings highlight the varying roles that constraints play in limiting the visitation of people according to race, age, gender, education and income. Gaps in the literature are identified, with implications for encouraging visitation for more constrained groups discussed. An agenda for future research is presented.