VOLATILITY AND COVARIATION ESTIMATION WHEN MICROSTRUCTURE NOISE AND TRADING TIMES ARE ENDOGENOUS

This paper considers practically appealing procedures for estimating intraday volatility measures of financial assets. The underlying microstructure model accommodates the inherent properties of ultra high‐frequency data with the assumption of continuous efficient price processes. In this model, microstructure noise and trading times are endogenous but do not only depend on the prices. Using the (observed) last traded prices of the assets, we develop a new approach that enables to approximate the values of the efficient prices at some random times. Based on these approximated values, we build an estimator of the integrated volatility and give its asymptotic theory. We also give a consistent estimator of the integrated covariation when two assets (asynchronous by construction of the model) are observed.     

Corporate security prices in structural credit risk models with incomplete information

The paper studies derivative asset analysis in structural credit risk models where the asset value of the firm is not fully observable. It is shown that in order to determine the price dynamics of traded securities, one needs to solve a stochastic filtering problem for the asset value. We transform this problem to a filtering problem for a stopped diffusion process and apply results from the filtering literature to this problem. In this way, we obtain an stochastic partial differential equation characterization for the filter density. Moreover, we characterize the default intensity under incomplete information and determine the price dynamics of traded securities. Armed with these results, we study derivative assets in our setup: We explain how the model can be applied to the pricing of options on traded assets and we discuss dynamic hedging and model calibration. The paper closes with a small simulation study.     

Political Processes in Management,Organization and the Social Shaping of Technology

The notion of path dependence is regularly deployed to account for the way past commitments have an important bearing on current choices. We make a distinction between the notions of past and path dependence and focus on path dependence as two types of event sequences: selfreinforcing and reactive. We then address the issue of how the notion of path dependence can be reconciled with a temporal-relational perspective on agency. These notions are tested and refined using a longitudinal case study of ICI's move away from chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and the decision to build three plants to produce one CFC alternative (HFC-134a) for the global refrigeration market. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of path dependence for research on technological and firm evolution.     

Psychological barriers in European stock markets: Where are they?

We examine four European stock indices and the prices of eight major German stocks for indications of psychological barriers. The frequency, (expected) returns, intraday volatility and trading volume of these assets are studied contingent on whether the prices lie within a certain range around round numbers. Our results indicate that psychological barriers do not exist on a consistent basis. It seems that some barriers have disappeared after these anomalies have been published. This discovery is consistent with current literature findings about disappearing stock market anomalies.     

Sabotage in Tournaments with Heterogeneous Contestants: Empirical Evidence from the Soccer Pitch

In this paper, we address the problem of sabotage in tournaments with heterogeneous contestants. In a first step, we develop a formal model, which yields the prediction that favorites exert higher productive effort, while underdogs are more tempted to engage in destructive actions (sabotage). This is because favorites have a higher return on productive effort and both types of effort are substitutes. In a second step, we use data from German professional soccer to test this prediction. In line with the model, we find that favorite teams win more tackles in a fair way, while underdog teams commit more fouls.     

Tax incentives in fiscal federalism: an integrated perspective

Abstract Models of fiscal federalism rarely account for the efficiency implications of intergovernmental fiscal ties for federal tax policy. This paper shows that fiscal institutions such that federal tax deductibility, vertical revenue‐sharing, and fiscal equalization (being common features of existing federations) encourage local taxation, but may discourage federal taxation. Furthermore, the structure of public spending is skewed towards local spending. We also show that, when considering Leviathan governments, fiscal institutions reduce confiscatory taxation by the federal government. The result is contrary to the Cartelization Hypothesis ( Brennan and Buchanan 1980 ). Finally, we characterize the efficient design of intergovernmental fiscal ties.     

‘Low cost–high tech’ innovations for China: why setting up a separate R&D unit is not always the best approach

In this article, we investigate the following question: How can multinational corporations set up their R&D organizations in order to make the best use of their existing technologies and experiences, while at the same time gain a deeper understanding of Asian markets, their requirements, and trends? To answer this question we used a case study approach to examine two distinct organizations which are developing specific innovations for the Chinese market. We refer to these innovations as ‘low cost–high tech’ innovations, which seem specifically appropriate for emerging market contexts like in China. Based on our findings, we refine an existing theoretical framework and propose a set of new organization types for R&D units.     

Real Estate in a Mixed‐Asset Portfolio: The Role of the Investment Horizon

In this article, three oft‐mentioned special characteristics of the real estate asset market—high transaction costs, marketing period risk and return predictability—are addressed in analyzing the role of U.K. commercial real estate investments in a mixed‐asset portfolio. Due to favorable horizon effects in risk and return, the allocation to real estate in a portfolio with stocks, bonds and cash increases strongly with the investment horizon. Examining the relative importance of return predictability, transaction costs and marketing period risk for the optimal allocation to real estate, the article finds that the consideration of return predictability is very important, except for short‐term horizons. Accounting for transaction costs is crucial for short‐ and medium‐term investors. Marketing period risk appears to be negligible. Traditional mean‐variance analysis—that is, ignoring return predictability, transaction costs and marketing period risk—can be very misleading.