领先财富管理的运营思路——BCG中国财富管理市场研究报告摘要

波士顿咨询公司(BCG)发布的有关中国财富管理市场的最新报告探讨了在中国建立领先的财富管理业务的关键因素.BCG授权本刊撷取其精要,希望能给予致力于提升中国财富管理水平的机构和理财从业人员有益的启示.     

The risk return tradeoff in the long run: 1836–2003

Previous studies typically find a statistically insignificant relation between the market risk premium and its expected volatility. Further, several of these studies estimate a negative risk return tradeoff, contrary to the predictions of mainstream theory. Using simulations, I demonstrate that even 100 years of data constitute a small sample that may easily lead to this finding even though the true risk return tradeoff is positive. Small-sample inference is plagued by the fact that conditional volatility has almost no explanatory power for realized returns. Using the nearly two century history of U.S. equity market returns from Schwert [1990. Indexes of United States stock prices from 1802 to 1987. Journal of Business 63, 399–426], I estimate a positive and statistically significant risk return tradeoff. Finally, exploratory analysis suggests a role for a time-varying relation linked to the changing nature of the U.S. economy.     

The Adjustment Property

An input–output (IO) system which is capable of producing any semi-positive net product by an adequate choice of the activity levels of its processes satisfies the ‘adjustment’ property. We analyze under which conditions the adjustment property holds for IO systems in which some produced goods have a purely intermediate character. The peculiarity of these pure capital goods is that final demand for them is identically zero. One of the ways to deal with this type of system is to eliminate the pure capital goods, by means of vertical integration.     

Around and Around: The Expectations Hypothesis

We show how to construct models of the term structure of interest rates in which the expectations hypothesis holds. McCulloch (1993) presents such a model, thereby contradicting an assertion by Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1981), but his example is Gaussian and falls outside the class of finite-dimensional Markovian models. We generalize McCulloch's model in three ways: (i) We provide an arbitrage-free characterization of the unbiased expectations hypothesis in terms of forward rates; (ii) we extend this characterization to a whole class of expectations hypotheses; and (iii) we show how to construct finite-dimensional Markovian and non-Gaussian examples.     

Socially responsible investing and stock performance: New empirical evidence for the US and European stock markets

This paper empirically examines the theoretically ambivalent relationship between socially responsible investing (SRI) and stock performance. It contributes to the existing literature by considering both the US and the entire European stock markets and by using consistent world-wide corporate sustainability performance data. Our portfolio analysis from 1998 to 2009 is based on the common four-factor model according to Carhart (1997), which comprises market return, size, value, and momentum factors. We show for the US and the European stock markets that SRI is associated with large-sized firms. The insignificant abnormal stock returns for SRI in both regions are the main result of our paper. Therefore, our study supports the view that SRI stocks are correctly priced by market participants, although we cannot rule out that a corresponding mispricing has existed before the beginning of our observation period in 1998.     

Economic Implications of Further Harmonisation of Electronic Communications Regulation in the EU

There are some aspects of the European RFEC and its implementation today that could benefit from increased harmonisation; there are others in which substantial accommodation to local, national or regional circumstances and preferences is desirable or required.     

Der Flexibilitätsbeitrag in der Arbeitslosenversicherung

The controversy around fixed-term contracts centres around the conflict between the employer’s need for flexibility and the employee’s need for security. The authors propose flexible contributions for employers to the public unemployment insurance system to balance both interests. The employers’ contributions for their temporary staff would increase while the contributions for their permanent staff would in turn decrease slightly. The authors calculate four versions. With regards to the total sum of contributions, the first version holds the contributions received constant while the second version leads to a reduction. They then repeat these two calculations for fixed-term contracts without substantive grounds. The flexibility premium takes into account the higher unemployment risk of employees with fixed-term contracts and establishes monetary incentives for employers to hire employees with permanent contracts.     

Empirical Evaluation of Fair Use Flat Rate Strategies for Mobile Internet

The fair use flat rate is a promising tariff concept for the mobile telecommunication industry. Similar to classical flat rates it allows unlimited usage at a fixed monthly fee. Contrary to classical flat rates it limits the access speed once a certain usage threshold is exceeded. Due to the current global roll-out of the LTE (Long Term Evolution) technology and the related economic changes for telecommunication providers, the application of fair use flat rates needs a reassessment. We therefore propose a simulation model to evaluate different pricing strategies and their contribution margin impact. The key input element of the model is provided by so-called discrete choice experiments that allow the estimation of customer preferences.