Subsampling the distribution of diverging statistics with applications to finance

In this paper we propose a subsampling estimator for the distribution of statistics diverging at either known or unknown rates when the underlying time series is strictly stationary and strong mixing. Based on our results we provide a detailed discussion of how to estimate extreme order statistics with dependent data and present two applications to assessing financial market risk. Our method performs well in estimating Value at Risk and provides a superior alternative to Hill's estimator in operationalizing Safety First portfolio selection.     

A Conversation with James O. Ramsay

Jim Ramsay was born on September 5, 1942, in Prince George, British Columbia. He pursued undergraduate studies at the University of Alberta, where he completed a BEd in 1964 with a major in English and a minor in mathematics. He then specialized in statistics and psychometry, earning a PhD in psychology from Princeton University in 1966. After holding a temporary lectureship in the Department of Psychology at University College London for one year, he joined the Department of Psychology at McGill University, where he rose through the academic ranks. He was chair of his department from 1986 to 1989 and spent sabbatical leaves in Cambridge, Grenoble, and Toulouse. He was named professor emeritus upon his retirement in 2007. Jim is the author of four influential books and over 100 peer‐reviewed articles in statistical and psychometric journals. He developed much of the statistical theory behind multidimensional scaling and is widely recognized as the founder of functional data analysis. Three of his papers were read to the Royal Statistical Society, and another won The Canadian Journal of Statistics 2000 Best Paper Award. The Statistical Society of Canada (SSC) awarded him a Gold Medal for research in 1998 and an honorary membership in 2012. Jim was president of the Psychometric Society in 1981–82 and president of the SSC in 2002–03. The following conversation took place at Jim's home in Ottawa, Ontario, on March 14 and April 4, 2012.     

Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard in Equity Partnerships: Evidence from Hollywood's Slate Financing Agreements

We use a movie industry project‐by‐project data set to analyze the principal–agent problem in slate financing arrangements. Under this specific film financing regime, which has become a significant mode of raising capital in Hollywood over the past decade, an external investor concludes a long‐term contract with a film producer and commits to cofinance a larger number of future film projects of that particular partner. In line with our theoretical conjectures, slate cofinanced movies receive poorer quality ratings and yield considerably lower return rates. Our data suggests that a substantial part of these performance differences may be attributed to adverse project selection and producer moral hazard.     

Two-stage non Gaussian QML estimation of GARCH models and testing the efficiency of the Gaussian QMLE

In generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models, the standard identifiability assumption that the variance of the iid process is equal to 1 can be replaced by an alternative moment assumption. We show that, for estimating the original specification based on the standard identifiability assumption, efficiency gains can be expected from using a quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator based on a non Gaussian density and a reparameterization based on an alternative identifiability assumption. A test allowing to determine whether a reparameterization is needed, that is, whether the more efficient QMLE is obtained with a non Gaussian density, is proposed.     

Discrete time Wishart term structure models

This paper reveals that the class of Affine Term Structure Models (ATSMs) introduced by Duffie and Kan (1996) is larger than previously considered in the literature. In the framework of risk factors following a Wishart autoregressive process, we define the Wishart Term Structure Model (WTSM) as an extension of a subclass of Quadratic Term Structure Models (QTSMs), derive simple parameter restrictions that ensure positive bond yields at all maturities, and observe that the usual constraint on affine processes requiring that the volatility matrix be diagonal up to a path independent linear invertible transformation can be considerably relaxed.     

Shrinkage estimation of semiparametric multiplicative error models

Within models for nonnegative time series, it is common to encounter deterministic components (trends, seasonalities) which can be specified in a flexible form. This work proposes the use of shrinkage type estimation for the parameters of such components. The amount of smoothing to be imposed on the estimates can be chosen using different methodologies: Cross-Validation for dependent data or the recently proposed Focused Information Criterion. We illustrate such a methodology using a semiparametric autoregressive conditional duration model that decomposes the conditional expectations of durations into their dynamic (parametric) and diurnal (flexible) components. We use a shrinkage estimator that jointly estimates the parameters of the two components and controls the smoothness of the estimated flexible component. The results show that, from the forecasting perspective, an appropriate shrinkage strategy can significantly improve on the baseline maximum likelihood estimation.     

The relevance of reputation in the nonprofit sector: the moderating effect of socio-demographic characteristics

This paper extends prior research on the reputation of nonprofit organizations (NPOs) by investigating the moderating role of socio-demographic characteristics in forming NPO reputation and reputation's effects on donating and volunteering behavior. The findings offer new insights into the role an NPO's reputation plays and its effects on key outcomes such as willingness to donate and work as a voluntary member in specific subgroups. The results show that successful reputation management is specifically important for male, older, highly educated, and affluent respondents. Communicational measures aimed at strengthening an organization's social responsibility are particularly promising regarding triggering favorable donor behavior and voluntary support. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Unique equilibrium in rent-seeking contests with a continuum of types

It is shown that rent-seeking contests with continuous and independent type distributions possess a unique pure-strategy Nash equilibrium.