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This paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world real GDP growth using mixed-frequency models. It shows that a recently proposed indicator that covers multiple dimensions of the global economy consistently produces substantial improvements in forecasting accuracy, while other monthly measures have more mixed success. Specifically, the best-performing model yields impressive gains with MSPE reductions of up to 34% at short horizons and up to 13% at long horizons relative to an autoregressive benchmark. The global economic conditions indicator also contains valuable information for assessing the current and future state of the economy for a set of individual countries and groups of countries. This indicator is used to track the evolution of the nowcasts for the U.S., the OECD area, and the world economy during the COVID-19 pandemic and the main factors that drive the nowcasts are quantified. 相似文献
44.
Christiane Clemens 《The German Economic Review》2009,10(4):422-447
Abstract. This paper examines the effects of aggregate factor income risk in a tractable version of the stochastic Romer endogenous growth model. Labor supply is endogenous. The presence of labor income risk unambiguously increases savings and growth due to precautionary motives. Households not only underaccumulate but also work less along the balanced growth path of the competitive economy when compared with the Pareto-efficient allocation. The paper also discusses distributive disturbances for the case of inelastic labor supply. Here, growth effects are negative for empirically plausible correlations of the underlying shocks. 相似文献
45.
There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil production since the early 1990s. We explore reasons for this evolution. We show that a likely explanation of this empirical fact is that both the short‐run price elasticities of oil demand and of oil supply have declined considerably since the second half of the 1980s. This implies that small disturbances on either side of the oil market can generate large price responses without large quantity movements, which helps explain the latest run‐up and subsequent collapse in the price of oil. Our analysis suggests that the variability of oil demand and supply shocks actually has decreased in the more recent past, preventing even larger oil price fluctuations than observed in the data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
46.
According to social-psychological research, feelings of uncertainty in decision-making evoke two opposite responses: (i) reduction
of uncertainty by information search, leading to less stereotyping of people, and hence less discrimination; (ii) social identification
with an ingroup, inducing more reliance on stereotypic perceptions and prejudices, and hence more discrimination against an
outgroup. We integrate both responses in a microeconomic model of hiring and pay decisions by an employer. Increasing competition
in the product market makes the employer feel more uncertain about his profits, but also raises the opportunity cost of screening
expenditures. This elicits substitution of ingroup identification for screening expenditures, and hence enhances discrimination. 相似文献
47.
Christiane Hellmanzik 《Empirical Economics》2013,45(1):281-303
This paper investigates whether travel increases the value of paintings produced by modern visual artists. The analysis is based on the 214 most prominent modern visual artists born between 1850 and 1945 and auction records of their paintings over the past 20 years. We find that artworks produced in the year of a journey are 7% more valuable than paintings produced in periods with no travel. We attribute this effect to human capital investments, knowledge spillovers and inspiration from the travel destination itself. There are persistent, but declining benefits to travel over the subsequent 4 years. The analysis shows that the impact of travel is smaller for later periods as modern art becomes more abstract. The effect on the value of paintings differs depending on the purpose of a journey: work-related, recreational and politically motivated journeys have a positive contemporaneous effect on value, whereas educational journeys have a negative effect. In addition, we find that France, Germany and the United States are the most frequently visited destinations for modern artists and also yield considerable benefits during times of strong innovation. 相似文献
48.
Christiane Pott Andreas W?mpener 《Zeitschrift für Planung & Unternehmenssteuerung》2008,52(4):407-425
Zusammenfassung Seit der Verabschiedung des KonTraG 1998 gibt es in Deutschland eine gesetzliche Vorschrift zur Erweiterung
des internen Kontrollsystems um Aspekte des Risikomanagements. Die Erweiterungen der Verlautbarungen des
IDW zeigen, dass damit auch ein ge?ndertes Verst?ndnis und eine intensivere Auseinandersetzung
mit internen Kontrollsystemen seitens der Wirtschaftsprüfer und Unternehmen einhergehen. Dieser Aufsatz
untersucht, inwieweit das KonTraG und die damit verbundene Ausweitung und Versch?rfung der Prüfungspraxis
Einfluss auf Best?tigungsvermerke von Unternehmen, die nach dem HGB bilanzieren, haben. Darüber
hinaus werden zus?tzliche, in der einschl?gigen Literatur best?tigte, Einflussfaktoren auf
die Qualit?t von internen Kontrollsystemen sowie auf die Art der Best?tigungsvermerke als Kontrollvariablen
einbezogen. Die Ergebnisse deuten auf einen positiven Effekt des KonTraG hin und zeigen mit Hilfe der Difference-in-Difference
Methodologie nach der Berücksichtigung von St?rvariablen eine signifikante Zunahme von beschr?nkten
Best?tigungsvermerken nach Einführung des KonTraG.
Summary Since the issuance of KonTraG in 1998 Germany has regulatory requirements to supplement internal control systems with a risk management component. The extensions of IDW’s standards indicate also the need for an altered understanding and a more intense analysis with internal control systems by auditors and companies. This research tries to investigate to what degree the KonTraG and the related expansion and intensification of the audit affect HGB following companies’ audit opinions. Furthermore, we control for other confounding factors affecting the quality of internal control systems and internal audit opinions as indicated in prior literature. The results imply a positive effect of KonTraG and show, based on a difference-in-difference approach including potentially confounding variables, a significant increase in qualified audit opinions post-KonTraG.相似文献
49.
Innovation measurement in the knowledge-intensive services (KIS) industry is very complex, due to a lack of adequate innovation indicators. A rather new empirical approach involves the analysis of trademarks for the measurement. This paper aims to explore the use and relevance of trademarks for service firms. Data from the German section of the ‘Community Innovation Survey’ are used, and a survey with 278 participating firms is conducted. The results of the two independent empirical studies demonstrate that a trademark can be used as an innovation indicator, at least for knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS) and product innovations. The results also illustrate which firm-inside and environmental features explain the use of trademarks as an intellectual property protection measure. 相似文献
50.