Export,Exchange Rate Risk and Hedging: The Duopoly Case

Abstract. This paper studies a Cournot duopoly in international trade with firms exposed to exchange rate risk. A hedging opportunity is introduced by a forward market on which one firm can trade the foreign currency. We investigate two settings: First, we assume that hedging and output decisions are taken simultaneously. It is shown that hedging is exclusively done for risk‐managing reasons as it is not possible to use hedging strategically. Second, the hedging decision is made before the output decisions. We show that hedging is not only used to manage the risk exposure but also as a strategic device.     

Deutsche Leistungsbilanzüberschüsse in der Kritik

Germany runs large current account surpluses. Recently the surplus has been higher than seven per cent of GDP. This has provoked many different criticisms. First, some argue that the euro is the main problem. Second, German wages and prices have been criticised for being too low. Third, according to some critics, German domestic demand should be higher. Fourth, current account surpluses have been assumed to be unsustainable. The article discusses all those arguments and analyses their validity.     

Steuerflucht und Steueroasen

The current debate on tax planning has to distinguish between tax evasion and aggressive tax planning. While tax evasion is illegal and requires the enhanced exchange of information, measures against aggressive tax planning seem to be very complex and complicated. Tax havens’ benefits from tax haven activities are inversely related to the intensity of competition among tax havens. Once the set of tax havens narrows, each havens’ share of the business increases and its margins go up. This competition aspect makes initial successes easy but final success very difficult. Nevertheless, some authors argue that action against tax flight is inevitable. As tax flight is a multilateral phenomenon, coordinated initiatives by country groups appear particularly promising. Here the EU should be in the vanguard. Only automatic information exchange generates the transparency and leeway needed to eliminate income tax evasion and to permit countries to devise tax codes at their own discretion. Despite the European trend towards lower corporate taxes, an empirical analysis shows that German multinationals have increased their tax haven activities. Recent research suggests that this development might be explained by the increased usage of anti-tax avoidance measures by high-tax countries. The substitutive nature of different tax-avoidance schemes indicates that only a coordinated closing of loopholes for profit shifting would reduce the demand for tax-haven operations significantly.     

An efficient algorithm for pricing barrier options in arbitrage-free binomial models with calibrated drift terms

The interrelation between the drift coefficient of price processes on arbitrage-free financial markets and the corresponding transition probabilities induced by a martingale measure is analysed in a discrete setup. As a result, we obtain a flexible setting that encompasses most arbitrage-free binomial models. It is argued that knowledge of the link between drift and transition probabilities may be useful for pricing derivatives such as barrier options. The idea is illustrated in a simple example and later extended to a general numerical procedure. The results indicate that the option values in our fitted drift model converge much faster to closed-form solutions of continuous models for a wider range of contract specifications than those of conventional binomial models.     

Marktwirtschaftliche Energiewende: Ein Wettbewerbsrahmen für die Stromversorgung mit alternativen Technologien

If the German energy transition is to succeed, environmental soundness should not be the only criterion on the agenda with respect to the restructuring of the energy system. It is rather the security of electricity supply and likewise the social sustainability during the transformation process that has to be ensured. The primary question is how to fulfill this challenge in the light of the legal obligation of a complete nuclear power phase-out in the most cost-effective way. The looming avalanche of costs triggered by record-breaking highs of the expanding solar power systems, promoted under the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), should have made it clear that cost efficiency has only played a minor role so far. According to this study, (real) additional costs for all solar power systems, which had been installed between 2000 and the end of 2011 in Germany, sum up to about 100 billion Euros (prices as of 2011). Since these resources are withdrawn from other societal uses, it is essential that costs for the energy transition in general and in particular the consumers’ costs due to an increased share in renewable energies have to be minimized. For this reason, a new, more cost-efficient and market-oriented promotion/funding system is needed to replace the current system based on the EEG. As suggested by the Monopoly Commission (Monopolkommission 2011), the German Council of Economic Experts (SVR 2011) and recently by acatech, Germany’s National Academy of Science and Engineering (acatech 2012), a market-based promotion system with quantity control in the form of quotas for “green” energy would be a more efficient system. If from 2013 onwards, the future expansion of renewable energies would be fostered by a national quota-based system instead of the EEG, the expansion could be more cost-effective, according to calculations of this study. If, for example, the future price for green electricity certificates exclusively accelerated the expansion of on-shore wind power, the overall subsidies for those wind power capacities that may be installed between 2013 and 2020 merely amount to EUR 6.8 billion (current prices) instead of subsidies in the amount of nearly 58.8 billion Euro (current prices) in the case of further sticking to the EEG. This alone should give sufficient reason to replace the EEG as quickly as possible by a market-based support system such as the quota system.     

Stock investments for German life insurers in the current low interest environment: more homework to do

Currently a stock market rally and at the same time extremely low interest rates can be observed. This coincides with more volatile risk premiums for interest baring assets like government bonds. The mixture makes life harder for investment managers of (especially life) insurances. They have to continuously find profitable investments with good returns for the customers’ money, in case of the life insurers, in order to be able to pay at least the promised returns of the contracts. After the stock market burst around the turn of the century the levels of stock investments by German insurers have declined significantly, therefore also missing out on the rises leading up to the Lehman crash and also not participating in recent developments. With insurance asset managers avoiding stocks in the past years the questions can be raised, if they are forfeiting a good opportunity for their portfolio and if there is still time to participate in possible future gains. On the other hand the upcoming regulatory environment, namely Solvency II, will play an important role in the future and likely already has an impact on the investment decisions of the companies. Higher capital requirements for stock investments make it even harder to earn the so-called “Garantiezins”. Without ignoring the risks related to stock investments, effectively banning equities from asset managers’ buy lists might lead to missing out on desperately needed returns for the life insurance industry. So policy makers probably should reconsider their directives. This paper evaluates the attractiveness of stock investments from a long term as well as a risk adjusted perspective using e.g. different indicators and commonly used measurements for stocks with a rather conservative focus, in order to possibly get some insight into the future performance of stocks. Looking back to a decade of boom and bust cycles in the equity markets does not necessary rule out stocks as an important source for returns. The results are discussed comprehensively also in face of the regulatory changes to come. In the end timing plays a major role and due to that the current valuation of stocks as well as the look ahead are of vital importance. Assessing the reliability of professional forecasts for financial market time series—in this context especially for stocks as well as interest rates—plays an important role for asset managers.