External monetary shocks and monetary integration: Evidence from the Bulgarian currency board

Starting July the 1st 1997, Bulgaria adopted a Currency Board (CB) monetary system. This paper aims at investigating if the adoption of the CB monetary system, which involves the cost of losing monetary autonomy, has provided a relatively better (with respect to other CEEC) monetary integration of Bulgaria with the European Monetary Union (EMU). Since Bulgarian monetary variables are endogenous under a CB, we focus on the ECB and FED interest rates as the main sources on monetary volatility. First, we find that ECB shocks are more rapidly absorbed and have less significant impact of domestic variables, with respect to other external monetary shocks (FED rate changes). Second, the responses of Bulgarian variables following changes in the ECB interest rate present lower persistence and significance, with respect to what the previous literature emphasized for other CEEC with monetary autonomy. This latter result still holds when accounting for different sources of cross-country heterogeneity outlined in the literature, thus supporting that the adoption of the CB may have worked as a rather good device in terms of integration of Bulgaria into the EMU.     

Bayesian regression with B‐splines under combinations of shape constraints and smoothness properties

In this paper, we approach the problem of shape constrained regression from a Bayesian perspective. A B‐splines basis is used to model the regression function. The smoothness of the regression function is controlled by the order of the B‐splines, and the shape is controlled by the shape of an associated control polygon. Controlling the shape of the control polygon reduces to some inequality constraints on the spline coefficients. Our approach enables us to take into account combinations of shape constraints and to localize each shape constraint on a given interval. The performance of our method is investigated through a simulation study. Applications to a real data sets in food industry and Global Warming are provided.     

Joining the pack or going solo? A dynamic theory of new firm positioning

The question of new firm positioning in the marketplace and entrant's subsequent long-term performance lies at the heart of strategic entrepreneurship. We suggest a dynamic theory of new firm positioning that hinges on an important feature of the competitive environment: industry-level product diversity. The key argument is that industry-level product diversity drives imitation or differentiation at entry, which in turn shapes the exit likelihood of new entrants. So, in our theory, the extent of the new entrant's product portfolio overlap with all the industry's incumbents takes center stage. Support for our logic is obtained from the analysis of the life histories of 640 British motorcycle producers during the period 1899–1993.     

Inflation,minimum wage and other wages: an econometric study on French macroeconomic data

This study examines the set of interdependences between the formation of wages, prices and the minimum wage (SMIC) through a vectorial error correction model estimated on French quarterly macroeconomic data covering the 1970–1/1999-4 period. Two periods are distinguished: the period of inflation rise from 1970 to 1981, which coincides with an important squeeze of the wage range, measured by the ratio of the minimum wage to the hourly wage rate; the period of disinflation since 1981, that has been concomitant with a stability of wage inequalities. Disinflation has hardly benefited the evolution of the SMIC which has always profited by price rises, in real and relative terms, which have become less strong. This evolution does not benefit any more on wage rises, when the interdependences between variables are taken into account. The SMIC seems however to have gained in efficiency as an instrument on wage disparity reduction. It rises are finally more persistent in real terms and relatively to the other salaries and have always as little inflationary impact on wages as on prices.     

Defining Poverty Lines As a Fraction of Central Tendency

We show under lognormality that when the Gini coefficient is stable over time, defining the poverty line as a fraction of a central tendency of the living standard distribution restricts the evolution of the poverty measures to stability. That is. poverty does not change if the Gini coefficient does not change. Moreover, when the Gini coefficient slightly changes, most of the poverty change can be considered a change in inequality. The consequences of using different poverty lines are then analyzed. Thus, important features in studies of poverty change based on these lines may result from methodological choices, rather than from economic mechanisms.     

Short-Selling Prior to Earnings Announcements

This paper examines short‐sales transactions in the five days prior to earnings announcements of 913 Nasdaq‐listed firms. The tests provide evidence of informed trading in pre‐announcement short‐selling because they reveal that abnormal short‐selling is significantly linked to post‐announcement stock returns. Also, the tests indicate that short‐sellers typically are more active in stocks with low book‐to‐market valuations or low SUEs. The levels of pre‐announcement short‐selling, however, mostly appear to reflect firm‐specific information rather than these fundamental financial characteristics. We believe that these results should encourage financial market regulators to consider providing more extensive and timely disclosures of short‐selling to investors.     

The Structure of External Financing Costs and the Economies of Scale View: New Evidence from Seasoned Equity Offerings in Germany

This paper is focused on the cost of raising equity capital in Germany. In the spirit of AltinkiliÇ and Hansen (2000) it challenges the conventional wisdom that flotation costs are characterised by economies of scale. For a sample of 120 SEOs on the German capital market over the years 1993–98 it is found that average total flotation costs amount to 1.61% of gross proceeds, while average underwriting fees are about 1.32%. Moreover, it turns out that flotation costs rise the larger the free float of the company is and the larger the share of stocks offered within a firm commitment cash offering is. As far as the economies of scale view is concerned, we do not find clear evidence in favour of decreasing marginal flotation costs. Moreover, fixed costs seem not to be very high in that they account on average for not more than 14–24% of total flotation costs or total underwriting fees, respectively.     

The Impact of Media Multitasking on the Cognitive and Attitudinal Responses to Television Commercials: The Moderating Role of Type of Advertising Appeal

In two studies, we explored the effect of media multitasking on viewers' cognitive and attitudinal responses to television commercials and the moderating role of advertising appeals. The limited capacity theory of Lang (2000 Lang, Annie (2000), “The Limited Capacity Model of Mediated Message Processing,” Journal of Communication, 50 (1), 46–70.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) that integrates both the motivational and cognitive ability aspects of information processing was used as the theoretical framework. The results of Study 1 show that, in line with previous findings, media multitasking negatively affects cognitive responses but has an overall positive effect on attitudinal responses to television commercials. The results of Study 2 suggest that this effect on attitudinal responses is present only for commercials that focus on the desirability (compared to the feasibility) of a product. The results indicate that in media multitasking contexts, television commercials that rely primarily on stressing the desirability of a product have both a cognitive and an attitudinal advantage compared to those that rely primarily on stressing the feasibility of a product.     

Luenberger and Malmquist Productivity Indices: Theoretical Comparisons and Empirical Illustration

This contribution establishes, from a theoretical viewpoint, the relations between the Malmquist productivity indices, that measure in either input or output orientations, and the Luenberger productivity indices, that can simultaneously contract inputs and expand outputs, but that can also measure in either input or output orientations. The main result is that a Malmquist productivity index overestimates productivity changes, since it provides productivity measures that are nearly twice those given by the Luenberger productivity index looking for simultaneous contractions of inputs and expansions of outputs. This relationship is empirically illustrated using data from 20 OECD countries over the 1974–97 period.