Central Bank Currency Swaps and the International Monetary System

Central bank currency swaps have emerged as a de facto key feature of the international monetary system, with the US Federal Reserve having extensive recourse to them during the financial crisis, and their exploitation by the People’s Bank of China to help internationalizing the renminbi. Combined with the unlimited and exclusive power of central banks to create money these swaps can match the volatility of international capital flows. However, they have so far not been associated with conditionality, and are more precarious than alternative institutional arrangements. Strictly framing the discretionary use of this tool seems unrealistic but an internationally agreed set of principles would enable a fairer and perhaps more efficient exploitation of this instrument.     

The Risk Map: A new tool for validating risk models

This paper presents a new method to validate risk models: the Risk Map. This method jointly accounts for the number and the magnitude of extreme losses and graphically summarizes all information about the performance of a risk model. It relies on the concept of a super exception, which is defined as a situation in which the loss exceeds both the standard Value-at-Risk (VaR) and a VaR defined at an extremely low probability. We then formally test whether the sequences of exceptions and super exceptions are rejected by standard model validation tests. We show that the Risk Map can be used to validate market, credit, operational, or systemic risk estimates (VaR, stressed VaR, expected shortfall, and CoVaR) or to assess the performance of the margin system of a clearing house.     

Optimal control of linear econometric models with intermittent controls

Dynamic Programming is used to derive the optimal feedback solution to the minimization of a quadratic welfare loss-functional subject to a linear econometric model, when the value of some instrument variables can not be optimized in every model period, but only in single ones. In this way, the relative inertia of fiscal policy-making, as compared to monetary policy-making, can e.g. be taken into account. Analytical expressions are derived for the optimal feedback rules and for the minimum expected losses, and iterative schemes are proposed for their numerical computation. It is suggested that a numerical analysis of the economic gain to be realized by making more frequent adjustment of fiscal policy variables than is actually undertaken could yield valuable information for policy-makers.     

Economic Performance, Trade Restrictiveness, and Efficiency

The paper addresses the question of whether trade restrictiveness impacts economic performance, via a trade restrictiveness index that is decomposable into a trade distortion and a domestic distortion component. The paper builds on the Anderson and Neary price index measure of trade distortion, in evaluating trade restrictiveness via a distance function approach. This is accomplished by adding a “dual” version to their trade restrictiveness price index, based on distance functions that scale output quantities. The authors compute the trade restrictiveness quantity index (TRQI) using a parametric frontier approach to model the production side of the economy, and a panel of information on the agricultural sector of a set of European Community countries. The results suggest that the use of TRQI makes a considerable difference to interpretations of the efficiency impact of agricultural trade policies in EC countries, as compared to policy‐oriented aggregates or result‐oriented measures of trade restrictiveness.     

Short Sales Constraints, Liquidity and Price Discovery: An Empirical Analysis on the Paris Bourse

In the Paris Bourse some stocks are traded on a spot basis, while others are traded on a monthly settlement basis. The latter are likely to be less subject to leverage and short sales constraints. We empirically analyse the consequences of this difference for the order flow and the return process. Consistent with the theoretical analysis of Diamond and Verrechia (1987), we find that market sell orders are less frequent on the spot market than on the monthly settlement market (although not very significantly) and that the spot market reflects good news (significantly) faster than bad news.     

Social Value Orientation and Climate Strength as Moderators of the Impact of Work Group Cooperative Climate on Affective Commitment

We investigate the moderating role of an individual's social value orientation (which refers to self‐ versus other‐regarding preferences) and of climate strength (which refers to the extent of agreement among group members on group norms and values) on the relationship between work group cooperative climate and affective commitment among professional employees. We develop two plausible but opposite hypotheses on the moderation effect of social value orientation, one based on the behavioural assimilation assumption and the other on goal transformation theory. We argue that the work group's climate strength is an important contingency factor that affects which of both contradictory predictions holds. In a sample of 209 academic employees of a Belgian university, we find support for our arguments. Specifically, a cooperative climate enhances the affective commitment of employees with a prosocial value orientation (as predicted by the behavioural assimilation argument) but only when there is strong consensus among group members about the group's climate (high climate strength). Conversely, for those whose social value orientation is towards the self rather than others, a cooperative climate enhances affective commitment (consistent with goal transformation theory), especially when the climate is not agreed upon (low climate strength). These findings underscore recent claims that the predictive power of different theories in organizational behaviour depends on an individual's motives and values. We discuss the implications of our findings for the management of work groups consisting of employees with different social value orientations.     

Economic burden of chemotherapy-treated recurrent and/or metastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck in France: real-world data from the permanent sample of national health insurance beneficiaries

Aims: Overall survival (OS) of patients with recurrent or metastatic (R/M) squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN) is extremely poor. New therapeutic options emerge but need to establish their economic value. The objective was to describe the direct and related costs of R/M SCCHN in France.

Materials and methods: We selected all adult patients treated with chemotherapy for R/M SCCHN between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2014 from the permanent sample of the French national health insurance database (EGB). Data were analyzed from the index date (first chemotherapy) until patients’ death or 31 December 2015. “Treatment period” and “end-of-life” (EoL) (from last chemotherapy until death) were distinguished. Costs included all hospitalizations for SCCHN and ambulatory care. Costs of hospitalized and non-hospitalized adverse events (AEs) were estimated.

Results: Among 267 patients identified, 85% were men, 44% had metastases at the index date and the mean age was 62.0 years (±9.9). The most common tumor location was oropharynx (29%) but 39% of patients had multiple locations. Median OS was 9.3 (95% CI: 7.9–11.8) months for the overall population. The average total direct cost per patient was €49,954, broken down into €32,908 (95% CI: 29,525–36,290) for hospitalizations and €17,047 (14,941–19,152) for ambulatory care. Main cost drivers were drug acquisition and administration (€14,538) during the treatment period (209?days on average) and palliative care (€3,750) during the EoL period (125?days). Regarding related costs, around 12% of patients received disability pensions (€1,397 per patient [624–2,171]) and sick leave payments (€1,592 [888–2,297]). “Metabolism and nutrition disorders” and “Infections and infestations” were the most expensive hospitalized AEs (€1,513 and €1,180 per patient, respectively). Febrile neutropenia was the most expensive non-hospitalized AE (€766 per patient).

Conclusions: This analysis of real-world data confirms the poor prognosis of patients with R/M SCCHN and provides cost data for future economic evaluations.