The Fear Premium and Daily Comovements of the S&P 500 E/P ratio and Treasury Yields before and during the 2008 Financial Crisis

I develop a new risk measure called the Total Fear Premium that generalizes Faugere‐Van Erlach (2009) and accounts for both flight‐to‐safety and flight‐to‐liquidity behavior. This new measure helps to explain why the daily S&P 500 forward earnings yield (E/P ratio) is strongly negatively correlated with daily Treasury yields of all maturities during the 2008 financial crisis, which is a reversal from the relation that prevailed before the crisis. The Total Fear Premium “mimics” the VIX during the financial crisis. Once the basic GARCH formulation modeling the interaction between the earnings yield and Treasury yields is augmented with the Total Fear Premium, the relation between the earnings yield and short‐term Treasury yields becomes significantly positive, in line with Fama's (1975) view that short‐term yields are good proxies for expected inflation. Two by‐products of this analysis are: 1) a new risk premium measure associated with flight‐to‐liquidity and 2) a new way to measure the inflation risk premium on a daily basis.     

Derivatives Clearing,Default Risk,and Insurance

Using daily data on margins and variation margins for all clearing members of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, we analyze the clearing house exposure to the risk of default by clearing members. We find that the major source of default risk for a clearing member is proprietary trading rather than trading by customers. Additionally, we show that extreme losses suffered by important clearing firms tend to cluster, which raises systemic risk concerns. Finally, we discuss how private insurance could be used to cover the loss from defaults by clearing members.     

AGRICULTURAL PRICE INSTABILITY: A SURVEY OF COMPETING EXPLANATIONS AND REMEDIES

Abstract There are two explanations for agricultural price dynamics. One follows cobweb logic and models fluctuations driven by expectation errors but emphasises that these expectations create complex dynamics and possibly chaos. The other stems from the rational expectations tradition of dynamics driven by real shocks. The empirical evidence tends to support the latter, but is not conclusive. The rational expectations model generates an optimal dynamic path from which no improvement can be expected from public intervention. However, if we take account of all the potential market failures in agricultural markets, and especially in developing countries, this conclusion might require some qualifications, although an appropriate policy design for stability has still to be achieved. This paper surveys the positive and normative literature on agricultural prices, highlighting empirical evidence and identifying remaining unresolved issues.     

Evolution of International Statistical Standards via Life Cycle of Products and Services

This paper describes international statistical standards in the context of the product life cycle. To set the stage, the historical evolution of standardization is traced from the Xia Dynasty of China to the present. The transition from local standards geared for manufacturing to national and then international standards is highlighted with acceptance sampling standards. International statistical standards now cover a broad range of topics beyond acceptance sampling, so a scheme is needed to organize them into a coherent structure. The product Life cycle provides just such a framework. The product Life cycle (which is subsumed to include service, as well) is partitioned into four main megaphases, namely: conception, development, delivery and maturity and death. Each megaphase is linked to relevant statistical methods in general and statistical standards in particular. A gap analysis identifies potential future directions of statistical standards developments and the attendant role that statisticians can continue to play in this arena.     

Multidimensional inequality comparisons: A compensation perspective

We provide a unified treatment of the two approaches pioneered by Atkinson and Bourguignon (1982, 1987) [3], [4] by resorting to compensation principles in the bivariate case. We treat the attributes of individual utility asymmetrically by assuming that one attribute can be used to compensate another. Our main result consists of two sufficient second-order stochastic dominance conditions. In the case where the compensated variable has a discrete distribution, the distribution of the compensating variable must satisfy a condition which degenerates to the Sequential Generalized Lorenz test for identical marginal distributions of the compensated variable. Furthermore, the distributions of the compensated variable must satisfy the Generalized Lorenz test.     

Do First‐Time House Buyers Receive Financial Transfers from Their Parents?*

Using Danish longitudinal data with information about wealth for a sample of first‐time house buyers and their parents, we test whether there are direct financial transfers from parents to children in connection with the house purchase, or in connection with unemployment spells occurring just after the purchase, when children typically hold few liquid assets. First, we document that child and parent financial resources are correlated. Then, we introduce conditioning variables and exploit the panel aspect of the data to also condition on fixed unobserved factors, which arguably govern preferences and/or productivity. We find no evidence of direct financial transfers.