Econometric Causality

This paper presents the econometric approach to causal modelling. It is motivated by policy problems. New causal parameters are defined and identified to address specific policy problems. Economists embrace a scientific approach to causality and model the preferences and choices of agents to infer subjective (agent) evaluations as well as objective outcomes. Anticipated and realized subjective and objective outcomes are distinguished. Models for simultaneous causality are developed. The paper contrasts the Neyman–Rubin model of causality with the econometric approach.     

Interpreting Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts

Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts have been increasingly accepted globally by both risk managers and regulators as a tool to identify and control exposure to financial market risk. However, modern portfolios are characterized by a constantly changing composition of security holdings that reflect portfolio managers’ strategies, expected prices, and net cash flows into the portfolio. As a result of these factors, portfolio returns are time-varying mixtures of distributions which are unlikely to be well approximated by conventional methods.     

On the estimation of returns to scale, technical progress and monopolistic markups

A number of theoretical results on estimating returns to scale, technical progress and monopolistic markups are derived when there are multiple outputs and inputs. The choice of value added versus gross output and problems that arise in aggregation across sectors of an economy are also considered. Using US data on manufacturing, evidence is found of increasing returns to scale across all levels of aggregation. Technical progress is typically found to be insignificant implying that economic growth has been driven by increasing returns to scale rather than technical progress. Such findings have important implications for the macroeconomic modeling of economic fluctuations.     

Inter-organizational communication as a relational competency: Antecedents and performance outcomes in collaborative buyer–supplier relationships

Inter-organizational communication has been documented as a critical factor in promoting strategic collaboration among firms. In this paper, we seek to extend the stream of research in supply chain management by systematically investigating the antecedents and performance outcomes of inter-organizational communication. Specifically, inter-organizational communication is proposed as a relational competency that may yield strategic advantages for supply chain partners. Using structural equation modeling, we empirically test a number of hypothesized relationships based on a sample of over 200 United States firms. Our results provide strong support for the notion of inter-organizational communication as a relational competency that enhances buyers’ and suppliers’ performance. Implications for future research and practice are offered.     

Information processing and leadership styles: Constructive thinking and transformational leadership

Transformational leaders increase job satisfaction and well‐being among workers. According to the cognitive‐experiential self‐theory (CEST), all behavior is guided by two information‐processing systems: a rational and an experiential system. Study 1 examined the relationship between information processing and transformational leadership among experienced school leaders (N = 183). The rational system had a strong positive correlation with transformational leadership, whereas the experiential system was weakly correlated. Study 2 (N = 126) examined constructive thinking and transformational leadership. Global constructive thinking, emotional coping, and behavioral coping all had strong positive correlations with transformational leadership. These results suggest that improving leaders' awareness of their own information‐processing and thinking systems might encourage more productive transformational‐leadership techniques.     

How much does a single graduation cohort from further education colleges contribute to an open regional economy?

How much does a single graduation cohort from further education colleges contribute to an open regional economy? Spatial Economic Analysis. This paper combines elements of growth accounting and numerical general equilibrium analysis to produce an alternative micro-to-macro modelling approach. This is used to evaluate the macroeconomic impact on the Scottish economy of the human capital generated by a single graduation cohort from further education colleges. The macroeconomic impact is found to be significant and larger than growth accounting would suggest due to the associated endogenous investment, employment and competitiveness effects. From a policy perspective this identifies the importance of the conventional teaching role of education institutions and the key function played by further education colleges in this process.