Entrepreneurial overconfidence and firm survival: an analysis using the Kauffman firm survey

We used the Kauffman Firm Survey of ventures founded in the year 2004 to identify overconfident (OC) entrepreneurs and found, contrary to the existing literature, that the hazard ratio for these entrepreneurs was lower than the corresponding value for their non-OC peers. We categorized an entrepreneur as OC if he or she believed that his or her firm enjoys a competitive advantage over its industry peers, while simultaneously underperforming relative to the industry in terms of average initial ROA. Specifically, we looked at the average ROA during the years 2004–2007 and compared it to the industry median. In addition to our hazard findings, we discovered that these OC entrepreneurs, while starting with lower initial ROA levels relative to their industry peers, may have enjoyed slightly better movement in ROA over the intervening years. Our results are explained in the context of the psychological literature on optimism.     

Yield curve risks in currency carry forwards

We provide empirical evidence that cross-country yield curve gaps (parallel gap, twist gap, and butterfly gap) are predictive to the expected currency carry premiums using currency forward contracts. We find that the expected currency gains are more notable as these yield curve risk factors at time t indicate short-term bond prices of investment currencies to go up (positive parallel movement, negative twist, and positive butterfly). We also find carry gains are more sensitively affected by cross-country monetary shocks than currency-country inflation pressures and business cycles. Our findings support that cross-country yield curve risk premiums still exist even after considering transaction costs.     

Is the service sector different in size heterogeneity?

We examined whether significant differences in size heterogeneity exist between the service and the manufacturing industries by using PL exponents as the proxy for intra-industry size heterogeneity. For the purpose, we analyzed firm size distribution (FSD) and estimated the PL exponents, on the right tails of FSD, of the service and manufacturing industries in Korea for the period 2008–2012 using the Business Activity Survey dataset created by the Korean National Statistical Office As a result, we observed that the estimates of the PL exponents for the service industry are lower than those for the manufacturing industry (\(\upalpha _\mathrm{Service}<\upalpha _\mathrm{Manufacturing}\)) regardless of size variable, year, and dataset. This relationship may be related to the weaker negative relationship between the size and growth of the service industry, which made the slope of the PL distribution in the right tail of the FSD smoother. This finding implies that size heterogeneity may be more distinctive in the service industry than in the manufacturing industry. In addition, the PL exponents of sales were larger than those of assets and smaller than those of employees (\(\upalpha _\mathrm{Asset}<\upalpha _\mathrm{Sales}<\upalpha _\mathrm{Employee}\)) regardless of industry, year, and dataset. We also observed the PL exponents in the survived-firm dataset to decrease, compared to those in the all-firm dataset.     

Interdisciplinarity in design education: understanding the undergraduate student experience

Interdisciplinarity is becoming a critical issue of concern for design schools across East Asia in their attempts to provide industry graduates with the skills and competences to make creative contributions in a global economy. As a result, East Asian higher education institutions are aggressively endeavouring to provide interdisciplinary undergraduate curriculum that combine traditional designerly skills with engineering knowledge and methods. The current study takes an interdisciplinary undergraduate course as case-study to examine how the pedagogic strategy of team teaching influences student learning experience. Two surveys of student learning were conducted for this research purpose. The first provided an indication of the holistic student learning experience, while the second explored the conditions of team and non-team teaching as influence upon learning experiences specifically. Results showed how students taught by a single instructor provided a more positive overall opinion of course quality and experienced significantly more encouragement to participate compared to team taught respondents. However, findings also indicated how team teaching significantly increased the students’ experience of a balanced contribution from different disciplinary perspectives and how the team teaching approach was significantly more effective in providing students with greater opportunities to understand the relevance of the different disciplines to the course subject. We conclude with a discussion of results in terms of the effective use of team teaching at undergraduate level as strategy for interdisciplinary learning experiences.     

The Interplay of Mood and Regulatory Focus in Influencing Altruistic Behavior

Using the context of print advertising, this research examines how the effects of mood on altruistic behavior vary as a function of whether a promotion or prevention focus is involved in messaging for child sponsorship. The findings reveal that when an ad message is framed in promotion focus, a happy mood fosters more favorable attitude toward child sponsorship and willingness to sponsor than a sad mood. In contrast, the effects of mood on attitude toward child sponsorship and willingness to sponsor are attenuated when an ad message is framed in prevention focus. Further, the results shed light on the process underlying the interactive impact of mood and regulatory focus by demonstrating the mediating role of perceived elaboration and goal commitment in advertising persuasion.     

Do fluctuations in crude oil prices have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the real exchange rate? Empirical evidence from Indonesia

Current research on the oil price impacts on exchange rates typically relies on the assumption that fluctuations in crude oil prices have symmetric impacts on a country's real exchange rate. Thus, the contribution of the paper is to use the non‐linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method of Shin, Yu, and Greenwood‐Nimmo (2014) and examine whether crude oil prices are asymmetrically passed on to the real exchange rate in the case of Indonesia. We uncover that oil price changes indeed asymmetrically affect the Indonesian rupiah in both the long and short run; i.e., the movement in the Indonesian rupiah appears to be more responsive to rising oil prices than to declining oil prices.     

Asymmetric effects of oil price changes on the balance of trade: Evidence from selected African countries

The main new contribution of this study was to delve into the asymmetric impacts of changes in oil prices on the trade balance in the framework of six major African economies. To tackle this topic carefully, we employ three measures of external balances—oil, non‐oil and total trade balances, and assess the asymmetric response of the external balances of those six economies to oil price changes in the short and long run. Like most previous studies, we first assume the impacts of oil price fluctuations to be symmetric and employ the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to explore the topic. We then separate oil price hikes from oil price plunges and implement the non‐linear ARDL method to reveal that the price of crude oil has a vital role to play in the trade balances for those six African economies. Further, there is evidence of significant asymmetric impacts of oil prices typically on the oil trade balance of Africa's top oil producing countries. For the non‐oil and total trade balances, in contrast, there is little evidence of the asymmetry of oil price changes.     

Testing contagion of the 1997–98 crisis in Asian stock markets with structural breaks and incubation periods

This study tests for the existence of financial contagion, using a method that allows an incubation period before contagion takes effect. We define contagion as an increase in cross-market linkages following shocks. With daily data on Asian stock markets during the 1997–98 crisis, we find significant upward shifts in the linkages between the Asian markets of both crisis and non-crisis countries. The upward shifts are maintained even after controlling for heteroskedasticity and common world and regional factors, providing strong evidence for financial contagion.     

A cross-cultural comparison of fast food restaurant selection criteria between Korean and Filipino college students

Despite the globalization of the hospitality and tourism industry, present cross-cultural research is limited to examining consumer behaviors or perceptions on the products and services the industry provides. The current exploratory study between Korea and the Philippines investigates college students’ perceptions on the fast food restaurant selection criteria with respect to the attributes they feel are important. A conjoint analysis, proven as a statistical marketing research tool with strong predictive power of consumer choices among multi-attribute product alternatives, was utilized for the analysis of the data for the study, and the analysis revealed that both Koreans and Filipinos viewed Menu Price as the most important attribute. Next important attributes, in Korea, were followed by brand, food-related factors and service- and hygiene-related factors, while in the Philippines, they were food-related factors, service- and hygiene-related factors and brand. This type of study is requisite for globalization of the food service industry in developing effective marketing strategies and establishing operational strategies, by understanding the different components of the Asian food service industry relative to the US market.     

How are gold returns related to stock or bond returns in the U.S. market? Evidence from the past 10-year gold market

Although the gold market over the past decade has been soaring relative to its prior history, there have been few studies on the relationship between the gold market and other major financial markets based on the past decade of data. To re-investigate how the gold market interacts with the stock market and the bond market, we re-visit economic and financial characteristics of gold using the past 10-year data in terms of co-integration, causality, predictive power, and extreme returns. We find that while gold returns are not co-integrated with stock returns and bond returns, gold returns have a unidirectional causality with both of them. Also, we discover that gold returns have some predictive power on subsequent short-term stock returns. Under extreme market scenarios, it turns out that gold returns tend to deteriorate more simultaneously with bond returns than stock returns. This means that gold can better serve as a safe haven for stock in a relative sense during temporary market downturns.