A general model for short-term interest rates

A general one-factor model for short-term interest rates is proposed. Besides the long memory fractionally integrated mean process, the model also consists of a power function of the interest rate as well as the GARCH effect in the conditional variance. The estimation results show that, while there is no evidence for fractional integration in the mean beyond the well-known martingale property, both the power function of the interest rate and the GARCH effect (but not the ARCH effect) are highly significant in the formation of the conditional variance. Test results also confirm a structure change in October 1979 due to the shift in the Federal Reserve monetary policy.     

我国出口贸易摩擦预警机制的现状、问题与对策

我国“入世”以后,为了保证出口的稳定增长,维持正常的出口秩序,迅速建立了出口贸易摩擦预警机制并已发挥了重要的作用。然而,出口贸易摩擦出现的一些新特点,对正在完善中的预警机制提出了新的挑战。本文对我国出口贸易摩擦预警机制的现状和问题进行了分析,并提出了相应的对策。     

Argentina: Macroeconomic Crisis and Household Vulnerability*

Using panel data from the Argentine Permanent Household Survey, this paper analyzes which households were more vulnerable to the Argentine macroeconomic crisis during 1999–2002. Results suggest that the impact of the crisis was not uniform across households, which differed in their ability to cope with shocks. In particular, households with more children, and whose head was male, less educated, and employed in the private sector were the most vulnerable, suffering larger than average declines in income. Shocks to labor income were significant, with both unemployment rates and unemployment spells increasing throughout the period, particularly during the peak of the crisis towards the end of 2001. Individuals with low levels of human capital (proxied by education and experience), males, and self‐employed were more likely to lose their jobs. Public sector employees, in contrast, were more protected from the impact of the crisis on employment.     

Time‐consistent optimal fiscal policy*

This article studies the properties of optimal fiscal policy in a stochastic growth model when the government cannot commit itself beyond the next period's capital income tax rate. We find that the results contrast markedly with those under full commitment. First, capital income tax rates are very high (65% on average versus close to zero on average under full commitment). Second, labor income taxes are rather low on average (about 12% versus a value of around 31% under full commitment). Finally, labor income taxes are quite volatile, whereas under full commitment their standard deviation is essentially zero.     

跨国公司跨境环境管理战略模式及其影响因素

跨国公司国际生产的延伸带来了对生产过程中的环境问题,引起了对跨国公司环境管理战略的关注.本文介绍的跨境环境管理的模式,其集中程度是由分散化逐渐向高度一体化提升的一个连续的集合.影响跨国公司各环境管理战略一体化程度因素包括产业因素、公司内部因素、正式规制因素以及市场因素.     

Intangible Flow Theory

The intangible flow theory explains that flows of economic material elements (such as physical goods; or cash) are consummated by human related intangible flows (such as work flows; service flows; information flows; or communicational flows) that cannot be precisely appraised at an actual or approximate value, and have properties precluding them from being classified as assets or capitals. Thus, although mathematical/quantitative research methodologies are very relevant for science, they are insufficient to study economy and society. Due to its prejudice against non‐mathematical/quantitative scientific reasoning, neoclassical economics could not be technologically prepared to reach the intangible flow dynamics of economic phenomena. Furthermore, the neoclassical solution to call people human capital or assets, besides being ethically very questionable, offers performative non‐scientific metaphors that intervene in the production of the reality they claim to represent; and sabotages the study of well delimited research questions by scientific approaches outside the realm of neoclassical economics.     

Strategic Interaction between Governments and Investors under Privatization Programs

This article analyses the strategic moves of governments and investors under privatization programs in a game‐theoretic context. In sequential‐move games of both perfect information and incomplete information, the best response of the strategic investors to observing a slow pace of privatization is to have a low participation in economic activity because of concerns over public policy credibility. This is true even if the government chooses to randomize its action to send mixed signals to the investors while adopting a slow pace of privatization for budgetary reasons. However, the outcome is Pareto inferior to a situation of phased but fast implementation of privatization programs and high private‐sector participation under plausible assumptions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Marketing charitable bequests to lawyers

There is scant literature about the role of the lawyer in influencing the likelihood of a charitable bequest being made in a will. Charities regularly advertise in legal journals and supply bequest materials to lawyers, but the effectiveness of these strategies for influencing lawyers appears not to have been measured in the literature or in practice. Our exploratory research indicates that specialist estate lawyers report that they pay little or no attention to traditional marketing of charitable bequests to them and that lawyers' specific information needs from charities about bequests are not being satisfied appropriately. Our study reveals that lawyers do seek information from charities in order to write a will's bequest clause, once a bequest has been considered by the client. Lawyers indicated frustration with obtaining this information from charities, and we recommend some actions for charities to rectify this situation. Recommendations for enhanced bequest solicitation are made together with suggestions for pathways for future bequest research involving lawyers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.