Testing time-homogeneity of rating transitions after origination of debt

When modelling rating transitions as continuous-time Markov processes, in practice, time-homogeneity is a common assumption, yet restrictive, in order to reduce the complexity of the model. This paper investigates whether rating transition probabilities change after the origination of debt. Accordingly, we develop a likelihood-ratio test for the hypothesis of time-homogeneity. The alternative is a step function of transition intensities. The test rejects time-homogeneity for rating transitions observed over 7 years in a real corporate portfolio. Especially 1-year transition probabilities increase over the first year after origination. This time effect suggests that banks should manage their credit portfolios with respect to the age of debt.      

Pathways After Default: What Happens to Distressed Mortgage Borrowers and Their Homes?

We use a detailed dataset of seriously delinquent mortgages to examine the dynamic process of mortgage default—from initial delinquency and default to final resolution of the loan and disposition of the property. We estimate a two-stage competing risk hazard model to assess the factors associated with post-default outcomes, including whether a borrower receives a legal notice of foreclosure. In particular, we focus on a borrower’s ability to avoid a foreclosure auction by getting a modification, by refinancing the loan, or by selling the property. We find that the outcomes of the foreclosure process are significantly related to: loan characteristics including the borrower’s credit history, current loan-to-value and the presence of a junior lien; the borrower’s post-default payment behavior, including the borrower’s participation in foreclosure counseling; neighborhood characteristics such as foreclosure rates, recent house price depreciation and median income; and the borrower’s race and ethnicity.     

Has Labor Income Become More Volatile? Evidence from International Industry‐Level Data

Changes in labor market institutions and the increasing integration of the world economy may affect the volatility of capital and labor incomes. This article documents and analyzes changes in income volatility using data for 11 industrialized countries, 22 industries and 35 years (1970–2004). The article has four main findings. First, the unconditional volatility of labor income has declined in parallel to the decline in macroeconomic volatility. Second, the industry‐specific, idiosyncratic component of labor income volatility has hardly changed. Third, cross‐sectional heterogeneity is substantial. If anything, the labor incomes of high‐ and low‐skilled workers have become more volatile relative to the volatility of capital incomes. Fourth, the volatility of labor income relative to the volatility of capital income declines in the labor share. Trade openness has no clear‐cut impact.     

Parental occupation and children’s school outcomes in math.

We investigate the relationship between math attitude and students’ math scores using data obtained from PISA 2012 and a 2SLS model. Math attitude is approximated by an indicator that takes into account intangible (parental attitude, student instrumental motivation and student math anxiety) and tangible (parental help in math homework) factors. The presence of one family member in a math-related career is our instrumental variable. We find that an increase of one standard deviation in math attitude increases the student score by approximately 30 points, a relevant effect since 40 points is the equivalent of one year of schooling.     

Import penetration and returns to tasks: recent evidence from the Peruvian labour market

This paper provides original evidence on the impact of import penetration on wages of individuals performing manual/cognitive task-intensive jobs in the Pe     

Modelling zeroes in microdata

Although the literature contains a number of suggestions for dealing with problems caused by a preponderance of zero expenditure observations that frequently occur in micro level budget studies, in general, these suggestions seem to be either empirically intractable or theoretically unappealing. In this paper it is argued that a natural theoretical specification can be motivated by duality theory and that the statistical technique of compositional data analysis provides a corresponding complementary stochastic specification. The resulting model is a consistent theoretical and stochastic specification for handling the possibility of a zero demand over a range of expenditures and/or prices. The model is then applied to the 1988/89 Australian Household Expenditure Survey.     

Analysing the determinants of bank efficiency: the case of Italian banks

Since PHILLIPS (1958) wrote his landmark article on the relationship between money wage rates and unemployment, much work has been conducted concerning ‘Phillips’ curves'. While some writers, such as LIPSEY (1960), SAMUELSON and SOLOW (1960) and HANSEN (1970), remained relatively close to Phillips' original model, other strayed from it. BRECHLING (1968), DICKS-MIREAUX and DOW (1959), ECKSTEIN (1968), ECKSTEIN and WILSON (1962), HAMERMESH (1970), KUH (1967), PERRY (1966), PHELPS (1968), and TAYLOR (1970) are a few researchers who felt Phillips' formulation did not adequately explain changes in money wage rates. Their approaches ranged from formulating entirely new models to merely adding other explanatory variables to Phillips' model.

The present study estimates a Phillips' curve for the United Kingdom within the framework of Phillips' basic hypothesis. He grouped all observations according to unemployment levels, averaged the wage changes for each group, and fitted a curve by trial and error to the compact body of data. The current approach fits a curve to all data points using a direct estimation procedure. Only two basic variables are used; money wage rates and unemployment.

REES and HAMILTON (1967) pointed out that the estimated relation between wage changes and unemployment is highly sensitive to the form of the variables and the regression employed. One can obtain widely scattered results by either changing the type of numerical analysis on existing data or by changing the defined variables. It would not be surprising if the results of the present analysis differ from previous works. Not only are some of the data sources different from those previously employed but the numerical analysis is entirely new to Phillips' curve theory. Spline theory is used to fit the Phillips' curve.     

Long-Run and Short-Run Behavior of Korea's Current Account

Recent research indicates that an error correction mechanism exists for current account imbalances in Germany, Japan, and the United States. In this paper, I test whether current account imbalances in Korea are also self-correcting. The Empirical results are ambiguous: while no conintegrating relationship can be detected, and error correction mechanism can. Using standard econometric methods, estimates of a small-scale macroeconomic model detect no effect of Korea's lagged net foreign claim position on any relevant variable. However, I do find that the current account is influenced by Korea's lagged net foreign claim position in a direct estimate of Korea's current account. [F32]