Reducing microbiological risk in the kitchen: piloting consensus conference methodology as a communication strategy

Foodborne diseases are a major public health problem. Improper storage and food preparation at home can favour microbial contamination of food. Consumers play a crucial role in controlling this risk. To reduce exposure to risk, it is essential to provide information and guidance on contamination management in the home. The aim of this study was to pilot a method of participatory communication addressed to young consumers and designed to reduce the microbiological risks associated with the consumption of meat products. The methodology was based on application of the ‘consensus conference’ model on food safety issues. The consensus conference served not only as a participatory strategy to share knowledge but also as a method for sharing in the development of risk communication content (guidelines) to be disseminated to the reference target. Young people’s perceptions, habits and behaviour in the kitchen were explored in the preparatory stage of the consensus conference by means of a survey and a focus group. Three consensus conferences were held in Italy attended by 60 university students (19 and 22 years old). Application of the consensus conference model as a communication process proved to be an effective opportunity to engage young consumers and experts on the topic of food safety. This discursive participation approach was broadly welcomed by the participants. Specifically, direct interaction with the experts was considered to be an important part of the communication process. The findings of the project were used to select concise communication content based on the perceptions, behaviours and fact-finding needs of the selected target. Publication of this content in the form of guidelines on microbiological risk management at home has enabled the results of the consensus conferences to be extended and the targeted communication material on risk reduction in daily food handling practices to be disseminated.     

Equilibrium reserve prices in sequential ascending auctions

We study a model where bidders have perfectly correlated valuations for two goods sold sequentially in two ascending-price auctions. The seller sets a reserve price before the beginning of each auction. Despite the lack of commitment by the seller, we characterize an equilibrium and study its properties. Strategic non-disclosure of information takes the form of non-participation in the early auction by low-valuation bidders, while high-valuation bidders bid up to their true valuations. Some buyers who would profitably buy at the reserve price refrain from participating in order to decrease the second-auction reserve price.     

Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?

External shocks, such as commodity price fluctuations, natural disasters, and the role of the international economy, are often blamed for the poor economic performance of low-income countries. This paper quantifies the impact of these different external shocks using a panel vector auto-regression approach and determines their contributions to output volatility in low-income countries. We find that they can only explain a small fraction of the output variance of a typical low-income country. Other factors, most likely internal causes, are the main source of fluctuations. From a quantitative perspective, the output effect of external shocks is typically small in absolute terms, but significant relative to the historic performance of these countries.     

Forecasting industrial production and the early detection of turning points

In this paper we propose a simple model to forecast industrial production in Italy up to 6 months ahead. We show that the forecasts produced using the model outperform some popular forecasts as well as those stemming from an ARIMA model used as a benchmark and those from some single equation alternative models. We show how the use of these forecasts can improve the estimate of a cyclical indicator and the early detection of turning points for the manufacturing sector. This is of paramount importance for short-term economic analysis.The first draft of this paper was mostly prepared while Claudio Lupi was working as a Research Director at ISAE. The present version of the paper is a revision of a preliminary draft that was circulated under the same title as ISAE working paper 20/01. The authors would like to thank two anonymous referees, audiences at ISAE, Dublin (22nd International Symposium on Forecasting), and Ente Einaudi (econometrics seminars) for comments. Fruitful discussions and suggestions from Gianluca Cubadda, Sergio de Nardis, John FitzGerald, Antonio García-Ferrer, Franco Peracchi, and Tommaso Proietti are gratefully acknowledged. None of them is responsible for any remaining error. The opinions expressed in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of ISAE or its staff.First revision received: Ocotber 2002/Final revision received: May 2003     

IDENTIFYING FACTORS WHICH INFLUENCE PRODUCT INNOVATION: A CASE STUDY APPROACH

This article provides an analysis of factors affecting the level of product innovation in a small enterprise setting. The perspective chosen considers the interaction of management and environmental factors and its impact on product innovation and explores how these factors interrelate to influence small business success (growth). A causal multi-site model is developed which will assist in identifying product innovation determinants for high-growth and low-growth firms. Moreover, direct and secondary explanations of product innovations will be isolated. Twelve case studies will be examined. The conclusions are that, for high-growth firms, determinants of product innovation that influenced small-business success (growth) were technology, competitive edge, research and development, product life-cycle, market change, product/market mix and customer base. For low-growth firms, customer base was a major determinant of product innovation which influenced small-business success (growth).     

A general HJM framework for multiple yield curve modelling

We propose a general framework for modelling multiple yield curves which have emerged after the last financial crisis. In a general semimartingale setting, we provide an HJM approach to model the term structure of multiplicative spreads between FRA rates and simply compounded OIS risk-free forward rates. We derive an HJM drift and consistency condition ensuring absence of arbitrage and, in addition, we show how to construct models such that multiplicative spreads are greater than one and ordered with respect to the tenor’s length. When the driving semimartingale is an affine process, we obtain a flexible and tractable Markovian structure. Finally, we show that the proposed framework allows unifying and extending several recent approaches to multiple yield curve modelling.     

On the lowest-winning-bid and the highest-losing-bid auctions

Theoretical models of multi-unit, uniform-price auctions assume that the price is given by the highest losing bid. In practice, however, the price is usually given by the lowest winning bid. We derive the equilibrium bidding function of the lowest-winning-bid auction when there are k objects for sale and n bidders with unit demand, and prove that it converges to the bidding function of the highest-losing-bid auction if and only if the number of losers n−k gets large. When the number of losers grows large, the bidding functions converge at a linear rate and the prices in the two auctions converge in probability to the expected value of an object to the marginal winner.