Dutch disease revisited. Oil discoveries and movements of the real exchange rate when manufacturing is resource-intensive

We study how natural resource booms affect the real exchange rate in a situation where there are input–output linkages between the manufacturing sector and the natural resource sector. An increase in revenues from natural resources could de-industrialize an economy by raising the real exchange rate, rendering the manufacturing sector less competitive. This tendency towards de-industrialization has been called “Dutch disease”. We build a theoretical model showing that a country experiencing discoveries of natural resources, such as oil, is not necessarily bound to experience the Dutch disease. The appreciation of the real exchange rate can be escaped if patterns of specialization shift towards the manufacturing industries that use oil more intensively. In the second part of the paper, we test the model and find support for the claim that Dutch disease effect associated with discoveries of natural resources (namely oil) are dampened in countries that specialize in resource-intensive manufacturing industries.     

Public Expenditure and Revenue in Italy, 1862–1993

This study examines the long‐run equilibrium relationship between government expenditure and revenue in Italy from 1862 to 1993, using cointegration and causality techniques in the long as well as in the short‐run, through integrating the Error Correction Model (ECM) into the traditional Granger causality test. A Granger non‐causality test (due to Toda and Yamamoto) is also performed. Unit root tests have been applied in order to investigate the stationarity properties of the series. Moreover, three more homogeneous sub‐period (1862–1913; 1914–1946; 1947–1993) have been analysed. The nexus between public expenditure and revenue has been discussed also by Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (FEVDs). Empirical findings show that, for each sub‐period, the policy adopted reflects the prevailing paradigm of public finance. In fact, the ‘Tax‐and‐Spend' argument, received empirical support from the liberal period data. In contrast, the interwar years are in line with the ‘Spend‐and‐Tax' hypothesis. Finally, the “Fiscal Synchronization” hypothesis emerges in the republican ages.     

The legacy of the past: ancient economic thought on wealth and development

Ancient economic thought was in general hostile to enrichment and saw wealth as inner wealth. This attitude was coherent with an economy mainly closed and static, based on agriculture and on slave work. But also it greatly contributed to restrain economic development in ancient societies. Ancient economic thought had an enormous influence on early modern thought. The latter borrowed its hostility from enrichment, which contradicted the real tendency of the new society. Thus, from the beginning, modern economy could not enjoy the support of a high economic theory. It could not legitimate enrichment and the increase in consumption.     

Capital requirements and claims recovery: A new perspective on solvency regulation

Protection of creditors is a key objective of financial regulation. Where the protection needs are high, that is, in banking and insurance, regulatory solvency requirements are an instrument to prevent that creditors incur losses on their claims. The current regulatory requirements based on value at risk (V@R) and average value at risk (AV@R) limit the probability of default of financial institutions, but they fail to control the size of recovery on creditors' claims in the case of default. We resolve this failure by developing a novel risk measure, recovery V@R. Our conceptual approach is flexible and allows the construction of general recovery risk measures for various risk management purposes. We provide detailed case studies and applications. We show that recovery risk measures can be used for performance-based management of business divisions of firms and discuss how to calibrate recovery risk measures to historical regulatory standards. Finally, we analyze how recovery risk measures react to the joint distributions of assets and liabilities on firms' balance sheets and compare the corresponding capital requirements with the current regulatory benchmarks based on V@R and AV@R.     

Domestic value chains as stepping stones to global value chain integration

Identifying the determinants of global value chain (GVC) integration is essential to understand the past expansion and current slowdown in GVCs. In this paper, we study the role of domestic value chains (DVCs) for GVC integration. In the presence of industry‐specific fixed costs of fragmenting production and of switching across input suppliers, DVCs can either be stepping stones or stumbling blocks for subsequent GVC entry. Focusing on backward linkages, that is, the sourcing of intermediates, we provide robust empirical evidence in favour of the stepping‐stone hypothesis. In our benchmark specification, a one standard deviation increase in DVC integration raises subsequent GVC integration by about 0.4%. To identify the mechanisms at work, we exploit two dimensions of industry‐level heterogeneity: product differentiation (a proxy of fragmentation costs) and relationship specificity (a proxy of the costs of switching between suppliers). We find that DVC integration is less conducive to GVC integration in industries that are characterised by relatively high switching costs and relatively low fragmentation costs.     

Outsourcing and Competition Policy

We analyze optimal competition policy by a Competition Agency (CA) in a model with two countries, North and South, were a final good is produced by Northern oligopolistic firms using an input that can either be produced within the firm (vertical integration) or outsourced to Southern oligopolistic producers with lower labor costs (outsourcing). In the case where the final good is only consumed in the North, a CA in the South would optimally appropriate outsourcing rents through restrictions on the degree of competition among domestic firms. If the final good is consumed in both countries, we find that optimal competition policy in the South is marginally affected by the share of Southern consumption, leaving relatively important incentives to engage in rent-shifting. For a high enough share of Southern consumption, however, the interaction between the Northern and Southern CA is shown to be of the Prisoner’s Dilemma type, whereby the Nash equilibrium is Pareto-suboptimal and mutual cooperation on competition policy is globally desirable.     

Sustainability and comovement of government debt in EMU Countries: A panel data analysis

We investigate the sustainability of fiscal policy in a set of 19 European Monetary Union (EMU) countries over the period 1970–2016. Panel unit root tests in the presence of cross-section dependence show that the government debt series is stationary, indicating that the solvency condition would be satisfied for these countries. This confirms the effectiveness of the austerity measures implemented by these member states. Moreover, an unobserved common factor drives the comovement of government debt in the Eurozone.     

Evolution and development,categories of Genovesi’s economics1

Abstract

Genovesi represents the highest point of two long-lasting streams of thought. One of them criticises the hostility towards the increase in consumption, of Aristotelian origin. The other, which had starts with Petty, distinguishes more and less productive labours with an empirical approach. In both cases Genovesi provides an evolutionary view of economic development which is based on two processes: the increase in consumption and comforts, on the one hand, and the increase of intellectual labour, on the other. Genovesi’s original and decisive contribution on these themes have been always neglected.