Private information, money, and growth: Indeterminacy, fluctuations, and the Mundell-Tobin effect

We introduce an informational asymmetry into an otherwise standard monetary growth model and examine its implications for the determinacy of equilibrium, for endogenous economic volatility, and for the relationship between steady-state output and the rate of money growth. Some empirical evidence suggests that, for economies with low initial inflation rates, permanent increases in the money growth rate raise long-run output levels. This relationship is reversed for economies with high initial inflation rates. Our model predicts this pattern. Moreover, in economies with high enough rates of inflation, credit rationing emerges, monetary equilibria become indeterminate, and endogenous economic volatility arises.     

Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments

This paper analyzes rates of return on financial assets denominated in five major currencies and provides a framework for the determination of optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments. Three models are estimated: a univariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model, an extended ARCH model using the random coefficient (RC) procedure, and a pure RC model. A comparison of the forecasts of these models with those generated by a random walk model demonstrates that forecasts based on the RC/extended ARCH procedure are superior to those based on the random walk model and those based on direct ARCH estimation. These results could be useful for both international investors for the allocation of their wealth among fixed-income investment securities and central banks for the management of their external reserve assets.     

Struggling with Meaningfulness when Context Shifts: Volunteer Work in a German Refugee Shelter

This article draws on an ethnographic study of volunteer work in a German refugee shelter to explore how individual experiences of meaningfulness are intertwined with shifting discursive and organisational contexts. At the beginning of the so‐called refugee crisis, societal discourses portrayed this volunteer work as extraordinarily meaningful – a state we capture through the metaphor of ‘overflow’. This ‘overflow’ mobilised volunteers and was an important point of reference for framing their work experiences as meaningful. Later, shifting discursive and organisational contexts challenged their framings. Instead of letting go, however, the ‘overflow’ triggered volunteers to reframe their experience in dysfunctional ways in order to sustain their sense of meaningfulness. This paper reveals how shifting societal discourses feed into individual experiences of meaningfulness, shows how individuals may respond to such shifts in problematic ways and theorises the nature of such shifts in drawing on Swidler’s notion of settling contexts.     

INNOVATING GLOBALLY

Costas Markides has spent over two decades studying business strategy and innovation. Recently, he has been focusing on the bigger picture of how people can address major social problems. Can the techniques used by managers to create innovation inside organizations work with global change? Markides talks with Stuart Crainer about his latest research.     

Factors determining municipal broadband strategies across Europe

Recognizing that high-speed broadband connectivity emerges as a key element for growth, city authorities engage in fiber access deployments to empower their local communities in the digital economy. Currently, a growing number of municipal fiber projects are underway or planned while the international community and the telecommunications industry are yet undecided about the role and type of municipal intervention. This paper takes a holistic view of municipal broadband in Europe, aiming to understand the factors that determine municipal strategies in fixed Next-Generation Access (NGA) networks and the implications of municipal broadband to regulation and markets. The data suggests that the determining factors are (a) the engagement of public utilities; (b) the involvement of the private sector in joint infrastructure projects; (c) the local demand for retail and wholesale services; and (d) the institutional and regulatory framework at the European and national scale. The findings of the study indicate that (a) municipal initiatives are highly dependent on national factors, thus the resulting interventions fare strong resemblance within a single country, while they can be substantially different across national contexts; (b) current EU provisions for public involvement in broadband development stimulate municipal plans for large scale arrangements; and (c) national regulatory frameworks, that primarily address vertical integrated incumbents and nationwide markets, may need adjustments to handle emerging access monopolies of regional and city broadband infrastructures.     

Quality standards for used durables: An indirect subsidy?

We construct a theoretical framework to study the impact of quality standards for used durable goods on trade ?ows, pro?ts and consumer welfare. We show that asymmetric quality standards generate trade in used goods from high- to low-standard countries while at the same time reducing trade in new goods. Producers in the exporting country bene?t from this change while consumers lose. In the importing country consumers are better off but domestic industry is hurt. These ?ndings suggest that quality standards on used goods may be a powerful policy tool whose use should be monitored by the WTO.     

Changes in Assortative Matching and Inequality in Income: Evidence for the UK*

The extent to which like-with-like marry is important for inequality as well as for the outcomes of children who result from the union. In this paper, we present evidence on changes in assortative mating and its implications for household inequality in the UK. Our approach contrasts with others in the literature in that it is consistent with an underlying model of the marriage market. We argue that a key advantage of this approach is that it creates a direct connection between changes in assortativeness in marriage and changes in the value of marriage for the various possible matches by education group. Our empirical results do not show a clear direction of change in assortativeness in the UK between the birth cohorts of 1945–54 and 1965–74. We find that changes in assortativeness pushed income inequality up slightly, but that the strong changes in education attainment across the two cohorts contributed to scale down inequality.     

A model of exchange rate policy: evidence for the US dollar–Greek drachma rate 1975–87

This paper represents an attempt to model movements of the exchange rate between the US dollar and Greek drachma. A stuctural model is set up, and then a reduced-form error correction(EC) speicifcation is derived. On the basis of co-integration test, the results do not support the existence of al long-run equilibrium relationship between the exchange rate and price differential. Furthermore, the instrumental variable estimation of the EC model indicates that the monetary authorities have pursued a short-run anti-inflationary exchange rate poilicy that appreciates the exchange rate in the presence of wage inflation as an attempt to mitigate the depreciating pressures on the domestic currency and thus to ease the adjustment required on Greek producers.     

Dynamic relations of uncertainty expectations: a conditional assessment of implied volatility indices

This study examines the spillover effects in international financial markets with respect to implied volatility indices. The use of the latter as the basis of integration analysis means that we test market participants’ expectations and not the actual price fluctuations. The empirical analysis, which includes all publicly available implied volatility indices, employs the dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle (2002) and its findings suggest that there is significant integration of investors’ expectations about future uncertainty. Furthermore, by accounting for the dynamic volatility of implied volatility inter-dependencies, we are able to reveal possible shifts in conditional correlations of market expectations over time. More specifically, our findings show a slight increase in the conditional correlations for all the volatility indices under review over the years and prove that in periods of turbulence in the financial markets the conditional correlations across implied volatility indices increase.     

Human Capital Investment: The Returns from Education and Training to the Individual,the Firm and the Economy

This paper provides a non-technical review of the evidence on the returns to education and training for the individual, the firm and the economy at large. It begins by reviewing the empirical work that has attempted to estimate the true causal effect of education and training on individual earnings, focusing on the recent literature that has attempted to control for potential biases in the estimated returns to education and training. It then moves on to review the literature that has looked at the returns from human capital investments to employers. Lack of suitable data and methodological difficulties have resulted in a paucity of studies that have carried out sound empirical work on this issue. In the final part of the review, we look at the work that has tried to assess the contribution of human capital to national economic growth at the macroeconomic level. This work has generally involved using either a ‘growth accounting’ theoretical framework or ‘new growth’ theories. Although the empirical macroeconomic evidence that accompanies this work does not generally allow one to distinguish between the two approaches, there is a substantial body of evidence on the contribution of education to economic growth.