Machine tools and mass production in the armaments boom: Germany and the United States, 1929–44

This article anatomizes the ‘productivity race’ between Nazi Germany and the US over the period from the Great Depression to the Second World War in the metalworking industry. We present novel data that allow us to account for both the quantity of installed machine tools and their technological type. Hitherto, comparison of productive technologies has been limited to case studies and well‐worn narratives about US mass production and European‐style flexible specialization. Our data show that the two countries in fact employed similar types of machines combined in different ratios. Furthermore, neither country was locked in a rigid technological paradigm. By 1945 Germany had converged on the US both in terms of capital‐intensity and the specific technologies employed. Capital investment made a greater contribution to output growth in Germany, whereas US growth was capital‐saving. Total factor productivity growth made a substantial contribution to the armaments boom in both countries. But it was US industry, spared the war's most disruptive effects, that was in a position to take fullest advantage of the opportunities for wartime productivity growth. This adds a new element to familiar explanations for Germany's rapid catch‐up after 1945.     

The Organization of Production

The organization of production depends on both technical and governance factors. The integration of recent advances in cost theory into production theory makes it easier to appreciate the joint effects of transaction and coordination costs interacting with wages and capital costs in the decision-making of firms. The corporate function, integrating the production function and the governance function, facilitates the joint analysis of the full array of factors including the effects of interrelatedness and complementarities of new technologies and of pecuniary economies of scale. The corporate function and pecuniary economies of scale also provide new elements in the understanding of the ever present variety of firms in industrial structures and the role of historic time in the theory of the firm.     

Pricing options under stochastic volatility: a power series approach

In this paper we present a new approach for solving the pricing equations (PDEs) of European call options for very general stochastic volatility models, including the Stein and Stein, the Hull and White, and the Heston models as particular cases. The main idea is to express the price in terms of a power series of the correlation parameter between the processes driving the dynamics of the price and of the volatility. The expansion is done around correlation zero and each term is identified via a probabilistic expression. It is shown that the power series converges with positive radius under some regularity conditions. Besides, we propose (as in Alós in Finance Stoch. 10:353–365, 2006) a further approximation to make the terms of the series easily computable and we estimate the error we commit. Finally we apply our methodology to some well-known financial models.      

Do Internet Activities Add Value? Evidence from the Traditional Banks

Very little is known about how adopting Internet activities impact traditional banks. By tracing the experience of Italian commercial banks, we provide evidence and implications for banks’ use of new Internet technology and innovative banking products as they relate to performance. Using different definitions for what is considered as Internet activity and by examining alternative proxies for bank return and risk, we find a significant link between offerings of Internet banking products and bank performance. Although this link is significantly positive for bank returns, we find a negative, marginally significant, association between the adoption of Internet activities and bank risk.

The rise of cost accounting: evidence from Italy

Accounting historians link the origins of cost accounting to the rise of manufacturing firms and, in a more detailed way, to efficiency control, pricing and decision-making problems faced in those organizations. To date, the international debate has mainly focused on practices in the USA, Great Britain and France, with little evidence available of developments in other countries, such as Italy. In this paper, the authors analyse the development of cost accounting in an Italian firm, 'La Magona d'Italia'. This iron, steel and tinplate firm, situated in Piombino, is observed over the period 1865-1940, i.e. during the central phase of the industrial revolution in Italy. We find that several factors influenced the implementation of a cost accounting system at Magona, including efficiency control, strategic decision making, and stock valuation. We also find a strong British influence on Magona's strategy, organization and information system, particularly in respect of finance, managers, technology and accounting practices. There is little evidence that Italian accounting traditions and practice played much of a role.     

The diffusion of an organizational innovation: International data telecommunications and multinational industrial firms

The paper analyses the structural and technological determinants of the diffusion of international data network as a major technological and organizational innovation in a sample of 40 U.S. and European multinational firms in the period 1963–1980. According to the results faster adopters appeared to be large U.S. firms, exposed to worldwide competition, with inhouse telecommunication skills. Smaller European firms adopted the technology later, often pushed by the provision of ad hoc technical solutions by service and hardware marketing firms. Smaller latecomers with centralized management structures were, however, quicker in the diffusion process. Both in the interfirm and intrafirm diffusion ‘implicit knowledge’ was a more effective factor than R–D intensity.     

The efficiency of social public expenditure in European countries: a two-stage analysis

Do European countries differ in the efficiency of their welfare policies? And which factors can account for such variability? To address these questions, we perform a two-stage efficiency analysis. First, based on a composite output indicator for social protection expenditure, we measure efficiency by means of the Free Disposable Hull and Data Envelopment Analysis techniques. Second, we perform an econometric analysis to identify the factors that can be associated to cross-country differences. We find that countries scoring higher efficiency have higher education and GDP levels, a smaller population size, a lower degree of selectivity of their welfare systems and a lower corruption level.     

Developing a transformative business strategy through the combination of design thinking and futures literacy

The paper describes a systematic methodology that combines futures literacy and design thinking to enable the collective discovery of new and disruptive business niches. It is a participatory approach centred on design know-how, which promotes innovative forms of engagement and articulation. The proposed methodology balances experience in designing and applying foresight approaches and futures literacy knowledge labs together with a multidisciplinary understanding of institutional context.

The methodology fosters decision making processes that embrace complexity and treat uncertainty as a resource, thus improving an organisations’ capacity to use the future to expand its understanding of the present. It has been applied at the Center for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), an organisation where institutionalised foresight and technology assessment takes place in Brazil, especially in support of Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) policy design and implementation, as well as evaluation. However, its clients also include different ministries within government and industries alike.

The article outlines the ways in which the organisation involved all its collaborators in jointly rethinking its future, building upon collective intelligence, narrative building, sense making, framing and reframing. The design principles called for these experiments to follow a collective learning curve that enable a renewed focus on systemic and transformative innovation. The crafting of new strategic questions was inspired by jointly expanding the understanding of the imaginary futures of the interrelated systems in which the organisation might play a role. As a consequence, new and disruptive possible roles for the institution were identified. These insights then informed the assessment and choices for the redesign of the business strategy.

This paper presents the methodology for combining design thinking and futures literacy, the application of this methodology to CGEE, and the major findings of the overall exercise. Readers will find out about the impact of this exercise on the organisation’s approach to both its own strategic positioning and to the design and implementation of foresight and strategic studies. The paper concludes by outlining the implications of the proposed methodology for foresight practice.