Volatility linkages in the spot and futures market in Australia: a copula approach

To better characterize the dependence structure of the joint returns distribution, we propose to blend copula functions with Asymmetric GARCH (AGARCH) models, which are allowed for generalized error distribution. We model the copula’s marginals by the AGARCH processes that can differentiate between the impacts of positive and negative shocks on the returns volatility while taking the large kurtosis of the returns into account. An application of the procedure is elaborated on the All Ordinaries Index and its corresponding Share Price Index on future contracts in Australia. The findings reveal that the two spot and future markets show a strong right tail dependence but no left tail dependence. This provides a very useful knowledge for the risk management and hedging in futures markets.     

Creating superior customer value for B2B firms through supplier firm capabilities

In a dynamic global business-to-business (B2B) environment, innovation and marketing appear crucial to providing supplier firms' positional advantage through the ability to create value for customers. Our examination is grounded in seeking to address the research question: To what extent is the creation of superior performance, relationship, and co-creation value driven by market orientation, product innovation and marketing capabilities in B2B firms? The results of a survey of 155 large B2B firms show product innovation capability and marketing capability partially mediates the relationship between a firms' market orientation and its ability to create value (performance and co-creation), except for the role of marketing capability which we found acted as a full mediator of the relationship between market orientation and relationship value.     

Erratum to “Walras and dividends equilibrium with possibly satiated consumers”

The main contribution of the paper is to provide a weaker nonsatiation assumption than the one commonly used in the literature to ensure the existence of competitive equilibrium. Our assumption allows for satiation points in the set of individually feasible consumptions, provided that the consumer has satiation points available to him outside this set. As a result, we show the concept of equilibrium with dividends (see Aumann, R.J., Drèze, J.H., 1986. Values of markets with satiation or fixed prices. Econometrica 54, 1271–1318; Mas-Collel, A., 1992. Equilibrium theory with possibly satiated preferences. In: Majumdar, M. (Ed.), Equilibrium and Dynamics: Proceedings of the Essays in Honour of David Gale. MacMillan, London, pp. 201–213) is pertinent only when the set of satiation points is included in the set of individually feasible consumptions. Our economic motivation stems from the fact that in decentralized markets, increasing the incomes of consumers through dividends, if it is possible, is costly since it involves the intervention of a social planner. Then, we show, in particular, how in securities markets our weak nonsatiation assumption is satisfied by Werner’s (1987) assumption.     

Mean-variance hedging for continuous processes: New proofs and examples

Let be a special semimartingale of the form and denote by the mean-variance tradeoff process of . Let be the space of predictable processes for which the stochastic integral is a square-integrable semimartingale. For a given constant and a given square-integrable random variable , the mean-variance optimal hedging strategy by definition minimizes the distance in between and the space . In financial terms, provides an approximation of the contingent claim by means of a self-financing trading strategy with minimal global risk. Assuming that is bounded and continuous, we first give a simple new proof of the closedness of in and of the existence of the F?llmer-Schweizer decomposition. If moreover is continuous and satisfies an additional condition, we can describe the mean-variance optimal strategy in feedback form, and we provide several examples where it can be computed explicitly. The additional condition states that the minimal and the variance-optimal martingale measures for should coincide. We provide examples where this assumption is satisfied, but we also show that it will typically fail if is not deterministic and includes exogenous randomness which is not induced by .     

OPTIMAL HIGH‐FREQUENCY TRADING IN A PRO RATA MICROSTRUCTURE WITH PREDICTIVE INFORMATION

We propose a framework to study optimal trading policies in a one‐tick pro rata limit order book, as typically arises in short‐term interest rate futures contracts. The high‐frequency trader chooses to post either market orders or limit orders, which are represented, respectively, by impulse controls and regular controls. We discuss the consequences of the two main features of this microstructure: first, the limit orders are only partially executed, and therefore she has no control on the executed quantity. Second, the high‐frequency trader faces the overtrading risk, which is the risk of large variations in her inventory. The consequences of this risk are investigated in the context of optimal liquidation. The optimal trading problem is studied by stochastic control and dynamic programming methods, and we provide the associated numerical resolution procedure and prove its convergence. We propose dimension reduction techniques in several cases of practical interest. We also detail a high‐frequency trading strategy in the case where a (predictive) directional information on the price is available. Each of the resulting strategies is illustrated by numerical tests.     

Does Real Exchange Rate Depreciation Boost Capital Accumulation? An Intertemporal Analysis

This paper examines the investment‐enhancing effect of real exchange rate (RER) depreciation in a two‐sector small open economy model where a representative firm in the tradable sector maximises its discounted profit over an infinite planning period. In this framework, a one‐time, permanent, unanticipated depreciation in the RER leads to a higher steady‐state level of capital stock and investment. This consequently increases the optimal investment rate associated with an arbitrary level of capital stock as the saddle path shifts upwards. In the benchmark calibration, the investment‐enhancing effect of RER depreciation is sizeable. One per cent depreciation in the RER leads to an increase of 0.4444 per cent in the rate of capital accumulation.     

Seatbelt and child restraint use among vehicle occupants in Ho Chi Minh City: an observational study in Vietnam

Abstract

This paper presents the trend of seatbelt use, disaggregated by vehicle occupants, in Ho Chi Minh City between 2016 and 2018. We conducted statistical analyses to identify the determinants of seatbelt use, including the effect of a new fine imposed against seatbelt law violation in the rear seats that became effective in January 2018. Seatbelt use was observed in at least half of all vehicle occupants, and drivers were more likely to use seatbelts than passengers. Only 4.4% of children younger than 5-years and 2.5% of 5 to12-year-olds used a child restraint system. Seatbelt use increased among all occupants after the imposed fine, especially among rear-seat passengers. Imposing new or increasing fixed penalties, with enforcement and public education, may increase seatbelt use to prevent road traffic injuries.     

ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND BOARD MONITORING: EVIDENCE FROM CEO TURNOVERS

We examine whether economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affects a board's chief executive officer (CEO) replacement decision. We find that high EPU reduces the likelihood of forced CEO turnover. Our results support the idea that performance assessment may be more difficult when uncertainty is high. We provide evidence that succession planning may be important to firms in reducing the effects of EPU, as firms with an identifiable heir apparent are not influenced by high EPU. Likewise, voluntary CEO turnovers are not affected by EPU. Overall, our results provide evidence that boards make personnel decisions in response to external macroeconomic pressures.     

Credit Ratings and Earnings Management around IPOs

This study examines the impact of having a credit rating on earnings management (EM) through accruals and real activities manipulation by initial public offering (IPO) firms. We find that firms going public with a credit rating are less likely to engage in income‐enhancing accrual‐based and real EM in the offering year. The monitoring by a credit rating agency (CRA) and the reduced information asymmetry due to the provision of a credit rating disincentivise rated issuers from managing earnings. We also suggest that the participation of a reputable auditing firm is crucial for CRAs to effectively restrain EM. Moreover, we document that for unrated issuers, at‐issue income‐increasing EM is not linked to future earnings and is negatively related to post‐issue long‐run stock performance. However, for rated issuers, at‐issue income‐increasing EM is positively associated with subsequent accounting performance and is unrelated to long‐run stock performance following the offering. The evidence indicates that managers in unrated firms generally manipulate earnings to mislead investors, while managers in rated firms tend to exercise their accounting and operating discretion for informative purposes.