Foreign Aid and Consumption Smoothing: Evidence from Global Food Aid

The paper examines the cyclical properties of food aid with respect to food availability in recipient countries, with a view to assessing its impact on consumption in some 150 developing countries and transition economies, covering 1970 to 2000. The results show that global food aid has been allocated to countries most in need. Food aid has also been countercyclical within countries with the greatest need. However, for most countries, food aid is not countercyclical. The amount of food aid provided is also insufficient to mitigate contemporaneous shortfalls in consumption.     

The performance of alternative forecasting methods for SETAR models

We compare a number of methods that have been proposed in the literature for obtaining h-step ahead minimum mean square error forecasts for self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models. These forecasts are compared to those from an AR model. The comparison of forecasting methods is made using Monte Carlo simulation. The Monte-Carlo method of calculating SETAR forecasts is generally at least as good as that of the other methods we consider. An exception is when the disturbances in the SETAR model come from a highly asymmetric distribution, when a Bootstrap method is to be preferred.An empirical application calculates multi-period forecasts from a SETAR model of US gross national product using a number of the forecasting methods. We find that whether there are improvements in forecast performance relative to a linear AR model depends on the historical epoch we select, and whether forecasts are evaluated conditional on the regime the process was in at the time the forecast was made.     

Understanding alcohol consumption across countries

ABSTRACT

With unpublished data from the International Comparison Program that cover the consumption of three alcoholic beverages in over 150 countries, we analyse drinking patterns around the world with an index-number approach, by estimating a demand system, and by studying the interaction among beverages in generating utility. We consider a separate demand system for each income quartile and find that tastes are not too different across quartiles. Broadly speaking, the results are robust to rolling sub-samples of countries, an alternative demand model and sample selectivity issues. The differences in the cost of alcohol across countries are also investigated, as is its role in affecting the degree of price-sensitivity of consumption.     

Do interest rate controls work? Evidence from Kenya

This paper reviews the impact of interest rate controls in Kenya, introduced in September 2016. The intent of the controls was to reduce the cost of borrowing, expand access to credit, and increase the return on savings. However, we find that the law on interest rate controls has had the opposite effect of what was intended. Specifically, it has led to a collapse of credit to micro‐, small‐, and medium‐sized enterprises; shrinking of the loan book of the small banks; and reduced financial intermediation. Because of their adverse effects on bank lending, we estimate that the interest rate controls have reduced economic growth by ¼–¾ percentage points on an annual basis. We also show that interest rate caps reduced the signaling effects of monetary policy. These suggest that (1) the adverse effects could largely be avoided if the ceiling was high enough to facilitate lending to higher‐risk borrowers and (2) alternative policies could be preferable to address concerns about the high cost of credit.     

Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts

We consider tests of forecast encompassing for probability forecasts, for both quadratic and logarithmic scoring rules. We propose test statistics for the null of forecast encompassing, present the limiting distributions of the test statistics, and investigate the impact of estimating the forecasting models' parameters on these distributions. The small‐sample performance is investigated, in terms of small numbers of forecasts and model estimation sample sizes. We show the usefulness of the tests for the evaluation of recession probability forecasts from logit models with different leading indicators as explanatory variables, and for evaluating survey‐based probability forecasts. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of stress management on nurse productivity and retention

Throughout the history of nursing there is a seeming legacy of personnel shortage, lack of funds, and, based on the nature of the role and related services, heightened levels of stress involved in patient care. The future of the profession, and more imminently, patient care and the health of nurses, may be significantly impacted by repeated challenges where current levels of stress and burnout are contributing to organizational problems, burnout, and attrition. Employee stress and burnout commonly lead to myriad health-related problems that result in significant organizational consequences. There are many methods of stress management, and sometimes the best and most effective begin with simple recognition, validation, and visible and committed efforts by the nurse executive. Regardless of the technique or approach, what is clear is that there is a need for nurse executives to include the development and enhancement of comprehensive stress-management programming for employees as a priority item to avoid burnout and attrition.     

The pay parity matrix − a tool for analysing the structure of pay

This article introduces a new tool for measuring relative pay within organizations. We call this innovation the ‘Pay Parity (PP) matrix’, and discuss its advantages and useful properties. The PP matrix allows us to conveniently measure, and draw inferences about, the nature of the whole remuneration schedule, such as its gradient and smoothness. We illustrate the application of the PP matrix by using data on the remuneration of academic executives in universities.     

Bicycle-related injuries: Injury,hazard, and risk patterns

Abstract

This paper provides the results of a U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) study to determine the circumstances involved in bicycle-related injuries treated in U.S. hospital emergency rooms. It also includes information from a CPSC exposure survey of the U.S. population of bicycle users and their patterns of bicycle and helmet use. Together, these data were used to identify and evaluate risk factors currently associated with bicycle use in the United States

Risk models identified factors specifically associated with injuries to children and to adults. Children were at particular risk of injury, and appeared to be especially vulnerable to head injury. In addition, the risk of injury for children was significantly increased when riding in non-daylight conditions. For both adults and children, there was a higher risk of injury on streets than in such areas as bike paths or unpaved surfaces. While some problems associated with bicycle assembly, operation, and maintenance were observed, the data did not suggest that any mechanical remedy is likely to reduce injuries substantially.