油气公司采用根本原因分析方法提高设备的可靠性

你的继续改进工作在取得初步成效后,是否仍以预定计划为中心而未取得实际进展?你们公司是否把长期存在的问题作为开展工作的动力?你们是否在不同的场所经常重复分析同样的问题?在你们公司里,对于什么是可靠性的问题,每个人是否都有不同的理解?我们公司在拉丁美洲5个国家中都有许多油田和气田,并且都遇到了困难,为了创造持久的利润,我们决定对不断改进的方法全面地进行标准化。改进的方法有:(1)把问题和机遇按轻重缓急依次排列起来;(2)分析这些问题和机遇的根本原因(RC);(3)开发和实施解决方法;(4)继续研究上述各种方法的利润。     

EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE CHINESE POLICIES ON THE WORLD GRAINS MARKET

The implications for the world grains market of a reduction in China's domestic absorption, and of the removal of its key manufacturing protection, are analysed in this paper. These policy changes are modelled both alone and together with grain self-sufficiency in China and with reduction in farm support in the US and EC. In themselves, the reduction in absorption and removal of manufacturing protection in China would have only marginal effects on the world grains market. If, however, China were to achieve grain self-sufficiency while adopting these macroeconomic and trade policies, world grain prices and trade would fall considerably. In contrast, even a partial removal of protection in the US and EC, simultaneously with the above Chinese macroeconomic and trade policy changes, could substantially increase world grain prices and trade. These positive effects would be considerably reduced if at the same time China were to become self-sufficient in grain.     

High-growth recoveries, inventories and the Great Moderation

We present evidence about the disappearance of the high-growth recoveries from recessions with intense job creation typically observed until the eighties. This result matches the belief that recessions now have an L-shape as opposed to the old-time recessions that always had a V-shape. We also show how this change in business cycle dynamics can explain part of the Great Moderation. We postulate that these two phenomena may be due to changes in inventory management brought about by improvements in information and communications technologies.     

Does the WTO Increase Trade and Cause Convergence?

We study whether proximity to the nearest tax haven affects FDI and the number of American affiliates in a tax haven. Our results show that distance to the nearest tax haven is positively related to FDI inflows and the number of American affiliates in tax havens. These findings suggest that there is harmful competition between tax havens. We also find evidence of positive spillovers: the number of American affiliates in a tax haven is positively related to the number of affiliates in its closest neighboring tax haven. This suggests the presence of agglomeration benefits given there is an affiliate in a nearby tax haven.     

Beyond economic and value wars: Mythic images of future cities

Images of the future are essential to a society's survival. According to Polak [1], images of the future reflect and foreshadow society's future; as images go, so goes society. As a visual medium, cities in particular depend on robust images of the future. I submit that our ability to develop useful images of future cities depends on our visual literacy in understanding architectural images. This study explores alternative futures illustrated with future fantasies as an experiment in connecting images, archetypal myths, and alternative futures. Using two variables (strength of the economy and shifts in social values), four scenarios are proposed: Frontier Freedoms, Urban Fortress, Eco-Survival, and Utopian Hopes. Scenarios of future cities depicted by architectural imagery and linked to worldviews and archetypal myths broaden public discourse beyond economics and technology to address qualitative contextual factors such as identity, community, sacredness, and nature.     

Machine Learning and Expert Judgement: Analyzing Emerging Topics in Accounting and Finance Research in the Asia–Pacific

In this paper, we focus on the question to what extent machine learning (ML) tools can be used to support systematic literature reviews. We apply a ML approach for topic detection to analyze emerging topics in the literature—our context is accounting and finance research in the Asia–Pacific region. To evaluate the robustness of the approach, we compare findings from the automated ML approach with the results from a manual analysis of the literature. The automated approach uses a keyword algorithm detection mechanism whereby the manual analysis uses common techniques for qualitative data analysis, that is, triangulation between researchers (expert judgement). From our paper, we conclude that both methods have strengths and weaknesses. The automated analysis works well for large corpora of text and provides a very standardized and non-biased way of analyzing the literature. However, the human researcher is potentially better equipped to evaluate current issues and future trends in the literature. Overall, the best results might be achieved when a variety of tools are used together.     

Does Order Flow Commonality Extend Across Trade Sizes and Securities?

We examine commonality in order imbalances across different types of securities and find that the extent of commonality is greater than previously documented. Order imbalances in portfolios of small stocks, large stocks, and closed-end funds have explanatory power for other portfolio returns even in the presence of own order flow. Our analysis of order flow composition reveals commonality in small and medium trades, but not in large trades, across portfolios. The activity from small-size trades is systemic, but not generally associated with returns on other securities. Order imbalances from larger size trades provide more information relevant to stock prices.     

A simple Keynesian model of inflation and unemployment under rational expectations

Zusammenfassung Ein einfaches keynesianisches Modell der Inflation und der Arbeitslosigkeit bei rationalen Erwartungen. — Dieser Aufsatz entwickelt ein einfaches makro?konomisches Modell keynesianischer Struktur, in dem eine lang-same Anpassung der Nominall?hne das gleichzeitige Bestehen von Inflation und Arbeitslosigkeit zul?βt. Die Preise der Fertigwaren sind vollst?ndig flexibel, und die Erwartungen hinsichtlich der zukünftigen Preisbewegungen werden rational ge-bildet, so daβ sie alle Informationen über institutionelle Beschr?nkungen des Arbeits-marktes und über die w?hrungs- und fiskalpolitischen Regeln der Regierung ent-halten. Es wird gezeigt, daβ es trotz kurzfristiger Starrheit der L?hne m?glich ist, die Volkswirtschaft sofort bei Zielgr?βen für Inflation und Besch?ftigung zu stabili-sieren, wenn man die Maβnahmen so kombiniert, wie R. Mundell (1971) vorgeschla-gen hat, d.h. die Rate der monet?ren Expansion sollte sich nach der angestrebten Inflationsrate richten und die Fiskalpolitik dem Besch?ftigungsziel dienen.

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Résumé Un simple modèle Keynesien d’inflation et de ch?mage sous des expectatives rationelles. — Ce papier développe un simple modèle macroéconomique de la structure Keynesienne où l’ajustement lent des rémunérations nominales permet la coexistence de l’inflation et du ch?mage. Les prix des biens finaux sont complètement flexibles et les expectatives concernant les mouvements futurs des prix sont formées rationellement en manière qu’elles incorporent toutes les informations regardant les restrictions institutionelles sur le marché du travail aussi bien que les règles de la politique monétaire et fiscale du gouvernement. Nous démontrons que, malgré de la rigidité salariale à court terme il est possible de stabiliser immédiatement l’économie sur le niveau des buts d’inflation et de ch?mage supposé que la combinaison des politiques recommandée par R. Mundell ({dy1971}) soit pour-suivie, c’est-à-dire que le taux de l’expansión monétaire devrait être lié au but d’inflation et la politique fiscale au but de ch?mage.

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Resumen Un modelo keynesiano simple de inflación y desempleo bajo expec-tativas racionales. — En este artículo se desarrolla un modelo macroeconómico simple de una estrutura keynesiana, donde un ajuste lento de los salarios nominales permite la coexistencia de inflación y desempleo. Los precios de los bienes finales son completamente flexibles y las expectativas referentes a movimientos futuros de precios se forman racionalmente, de tal manera que ellas incorporan toda la información referente a limitaciones institucionales en el mercado del trabajo, como también las reglas gubernamentales de las políticas monetaria y fiscal. Se muestra, que a pesar de la rigidez de corto plazo de los salarios, es posible estabilizar instan-tàneamente la economia a niveles establecidos como metas para la inflación y el desempleo, siempre que se aplique la mezcla de politicas recomendada por R. Mundell (1971), p.ej.: la tasa de expansión monetaria debe ser ajustada a la tasa de inflación asignada como meta y la política fiscal a la tasa de desempleo asignada como meta.

     

Diversification strategy and systematic risk

This paper addresses the relationship between diversification strategy and systematic risk (beta). Beta values are examined for six diversification categories, and it is found that betas for unrelated diversifiers are significantly higher than those of other firms. Possible contributions to this difference, including market power, capital structure, and capital intensity are explored.