The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism

We perform an empirical investigation of the macroeconomic consequences of international terrorism and interactions with alternative forms of collective violence. Our analysis is based on a rich unbalanced panel data set with annual observations on 177 countries from 1968 to 2000, which brings together information from the Penn World Table data set, the ITERATE data set for terrorist events, and data sets of external and internal conflict. We explore these data with cross-sectional and panel growth regression analysis and a structural VAR model. We find that, on average, the incidence of terrorism may have an economically significant negative effect on growth, albeit one that is considerably smaller and less persistent than that associated with either external wars or internal conflict. As well, terrorism is associated with a redirection of economic activity away from investment spending and towards government spending. However, our investigation also suggests important differences both regarding the incidence and the economic consequences of terrorism among different sets of countries. In OECD economies, in particular, terrorist incidents are considerably more frequent than in other nations, but the negative influence of these incidents on growth is smaller.     

Estimating the Euler equation for output

New Keynesian macroeconomic models have generally emphasized that expectations of future output are a key factor in determining current output. The theoretical motivation for such forward-looking behavior relies on a straightforward generalization of the well-known Euler equation for consumption. In this paper, we use maximum likelihood and generalized method of moments (GMM) methods to explore the empirical importance of output expectations. We find little evidence that rational expectations of future output help determine current output, especially after taking into account the small-sample bias in GMM.     

A text book treatment of calculating returns on non-traditional portfolios

This paper addresses a gap in traditional portfolio literature by providing techniques for identifying returns on non-traditional portfolios.Futures contracts require daily cash flows over the holding period; these cash flows determine the rate of return. The security deposit represents a tied investment since the funds are not available for other uses and do not earn a risk adjusted return. To initiate a short option or a short stock position also requires a cash outflow. The cash outflow or equity deposit effectively constitutes an investment since the trader postpones consumption in a risky medium that does not guarantee the return of the funds.By identifying the amount of the investment and rates of returns, it is possible to extend normative investment analysis to non-traditional portfolio holdings. This paper introduces four propositions to aid in this process.     

Traumberuf oder Verlegenheitslösung?

So far relatively little is known about the situation of Ph.D. students in media and communication research. The main purpose of this study is, therefore, to shed light on the employment and working conditions for young scholars on their way to their doctoral degrees. We conducted a survey of 281 Ph.D. students in Germany, Switzerland and Austria. The results show that, on the one hand, young scholars are intrinsically highly motivated to do their jobs. On the other hand, they perceive an academic career as a very uncertain venture with many obstacles. Furthermore, several types of Ph.D. students can be distinguished: idealists, careerists and waverers. It is shown that only the idealists conform to the concept of a productive and interested scholar. The results are discussed in terms of their importance for the future development of the field.     

Robert W. McChesney: Rich Media, Poor Democracy: Communication Politics in Dubious Times

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Zur Qualität der Medienkontrolle: Ergebnisse einer Befragung deutscher Rundfunk- und Medienräte

This article presents the results of a survey among German media supervisors (members of supervising boards in public broadcasting stations and state media institutions). Given the increasing commercialization and internationalization of television, the supervising boards play a crucial part in assessing the quality of programs. From among 940 German supervisors, 364 took part in the survey, which covered the individual role conceptions of respondents as well as their attitudes towards quality criteria for television. Results suggest that both the supervisors’ amount of television use and the types of programs they prefer is clearly different from patterns in the population. This, along with the observation that supervisors often criticize what they saw privately, suggests (given the diversity of programs) that too much might be expected of them. Media supervisors do heed quality criteria in their work, but these probably do not correspond to other groups’ criteria, and especially not to the general population’s. To conclude, suggestions are discussed to improve the system of supervising programs by important social groups.     

Focusing the catastrophic illness debate.

Unlike other aspects of the American health experience, there is a current void of information on expensive illness experiences. This paper is designed to fill this void and prrsents an analysis of the incidence and cost of catastrophic illness in the United States. Catastrophic illness is defined as an illness episode for which a person incurs $5,000 or more of medical expenses in a calendar year. This information is used to provide a framework for focusing the debate about catastrophic and national health insurance.