Modeling Disinterest and Dislike: A Bounded Bayesian Mixed Logit Model of the UK Market for GM Food

Mixed logit models represent a powerful discrete choice analytical model but require assumptions about the functional form of the parameter distributions. The use of unbounded distributions, such as the normal distribution, may be regarded as unsuitable where theory indicates that all are negatively affected by increases in an attribute, such as price. Bounded distributions such as the triangular and log-normal are unable to model the case where a section of the population is indifferent towards an attribute, while the remainder are negatively disposed toward it. Train and Sonnier’s bounded mixed logit model accommodates these features and is employed in this paper. A censored normal and Johnson’s S_b distribution are used to model preferences in the UK for food attributes, including price and GM technology. Bi-modal distributions are identified regarding GM food: some are unlikely to ever consume it, some are close to indifference and willing to consume at relatively small discounts while the remainder are fairly unresponsive to further price reductions.     

Quantitative growth effects of subsidies in a search theoretic R&D model

Should government subsidize R&D and does it matter how these subsidies are allocated? We examine these questions in a dynamic model where R&D is described as sequential sampling from a distribution of new ideas. Successful discoveries affect future available resources and incentives for further R&D. Consequently, there may be under-investment in R&D. We study the effect of government interventions aimed at fostering growth through R&D. Calibrating the model with aggregate data from the Israeli business sector allows us to quantitatively compare two forms of support resembling those actually used to encourage R&D in the Israeli business sector: (i) an unrestricted subsidy that may be used at the recipients' discretion to finance R&D or other investments, (ii) a subsidy earmarked by the government for R&D activities only. While there is no theoretical way to determine which of the two subsidies will have a greater impact on search for new ideas and growth, we find that in the calibrated economy both subsidies have a significant but similar impact on the economy's output and TFP growth rates. Accordingly, in the case of the Israeli business sector, the incentives to conduct R&D were sufficiently strong, and no R&D-specific encouragement was needed. However, a sensitivity analysis reveals that for economies characterized by other parameter values this result may not be true. Correspondence to: B. Bental     

生物技术革命下的产业趋势与发展模式

当今世界正处在一个由科技和经济双重推动的加速变革时期,伴随着后IT时代的逐步来临,一场新技术革命和新产业革命已悄然孕育。面对国际科技、经济的发展趋势以及我国自身的发展现实,生物经济强国战略审时度势的提出,对于我国经济增长方式的彻底转变以及和谐社会的最终建立都具有重大的战略意义,并将为21世纪的强国之路奠定最为可靠的物质和技术基础,也必将对中华民族的伟大复兴发挥关键性作用。     

Individual bidder behavior in first-price private value auctions

Individual bid functions display sensitivity to the strategic considerations inherent in first-price auctions. However, several formal models, including heterogeneous Nash equilibrium bidding models with constant relative risk aversion, perform quite poorly.     

虚拟水及其在缓解区域水资源短缺中的应用研究

虚拟水是指生产商品和服务所需要的水资源数量。虚拟水战略是指贫水国家或地区通过贸易的方式从富水国家或地区购买水密集型农产品(粮食)来获得本地区水和粮食的安全。本文在综述前人对虚拟水研究的基础上,计算了2002年甘肃省及不同地区主要农产品虚拟水含量,并对甘肃省加强虚拟水贸易的战略进行了探讨。     

经济转型期的产业断层危机

产业断层危机不同于一般经济周期,它产生于产业结构升级转换中的结构失衡,表现为中长期的结构错落和增长速度迟缓。根据引发的因素可以分为“康氏周期拐点型”、“泡沫经济引致型”、“货币危机引致型”和“产业升级转换型”等类型,中国目前正处于工业化中期阶段,产业结构正面临着向新兴技术和新兴产业转型阶段,到2005年前后,我国将面临产业结构大规模升级,届时由于现阶段的资源瓶颈、产业回补、出口压力、技术瓶颈、产业虚高度化和尤格拉周期因素,可能会发生较大的产业断层危机。     

第三方物流服务提供商物流能力构成探讨

探讨第三方物流服务提供商物流能力的内涵、特征及其构成要素,提出第三方物流服务提供商的物流能力应包括物流要素能力、物流管理能力、物流服务能力、物流创新能力及物流规划能力,并对各种能力的内涵与评价指标进行了探讨.     

发展湖北现代农业物流的思考

针对农业市场的物流需求,指出创建湖北现代农业物流管理体系的重要性,并在分析当前湖北农业物流存在问题,明确现代农业物流内涵的基础上,结合湖北实际,探讨了发展湖北现代农业物流的构想。     

通用装备实施供应链管理过程中供应商的选择和评价研究

本文介绍通用装备实施供应链管理过程中军品供应商评价选择的实施步骤,结合具体实例介绍建立军品供应商评价指标体系,制定供应商评价标准,对军品供应商进行评价和选择的方法.