An integrated analysis of the association between accrual disclosure and the abnormal accrual anomaly

We find no evidence of accrual mispricing for firms that disclose accrual information at earnings announcements. For these firms, the market differentiates the discretionary from the nondiscretionary components of the earnings surprise. In contrast, the market fails to distinguish between the discretionary and the nondiscretionary components of the earnings surprise for firms that do not disclose accrual information at earnings announcements. These firms experience some stock price correction around the filing date. However, the correction is only partial, resulting in a post-filing drift.

Football players’ career and wage profiles

The objective of this article is to look over football players’ career path, from lower leagues to the first league, and the associated wage profile. The information comes from a Portuguese longitudinal matched employer–employee data set defining several career events according to players’ movement across football clubs and across professional and semi-professional leagues. Our identifying strategy relies on coach changes to reduce the potential bias resulting from players’ moves between clubs. The estimated first-difference wage equations indicate that players can expect a wage premium when they get transferred to new clubs in higher leagues or a wage penalty when moving to lower leagues. Players who stay in the same club after the club being relegated can also expect a wage penalty.     

Volatility spillover effects in interbank money markets

Using daily data from 2006 to 2015, this paper applies alternative multivariate GARCH models and a modified version of the spillover index methodology proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 28(1):57–66, 2012) to test the existence of shock and volatility contagion effects across interbank money markets. Overall, we find evidence that money markets are highly interrelated, exhibiting dynamic cross market effects. Moreover, we emphasize the pertinence of conditional covariances and we show that volatility spillovers are time-varying and very responsive to the major economic events, increasing in periods of higher turbulence, which reinforces the importance of closely monitoring the evolution of money markets.     

Some unpleasant currency-devaluation arithmetic in a post Keynesian macromodel

The conventional view argues that devaluation increases the price competitiveness of domestic goods, thus allowing the economy to achieve a higher level of economic activity. However, these theoretical treatments largely neglect two important effects following devaluation: (1) the inflationary impact on the price of imported intermediate inputs, which raises the prime costs of firms and deteriorates partially or totally their price competitiveness; and (2) the redistribution of income from wages to profits, which ambiguously affects the aggregate demand as workers and capitalists have different propensities to save. New structuralist economists have explored these stylized facts neglected by the orthodox literature and, by and large, conclude that devaluation has contractionary effects on growth and positive effects on the external balance. Given that empirical evidence on the correlation between devaluation and growth is quite mixed, we develop a more general Keynesian–Kaleckian model that takes into account both opposing views in order to analyze the net impact of currency depreciation on the short-run growth rate and the current account. We demonstrate that this impact can go either way, depending on several conditions such as the type of growth regime, that is, wage-led or profit-led, and the degree of international price competitiveness of domestic goods.     

Rural tourism and the development of less favoured areas—between rhetoric and practice

Tourism has, in recent times, been advocated as a particularly efficient way to promote the development of the so‐called less favoured regions, mostly inland and mountain, owing to its potential for employment and income creation and the synergies it is able to generate in other sectors of activity. Based on the results of empirical research carried out in two distinct inland zones of Portugal, this article tries to demonstrate that a wide gap and considerable contradictions are emerging between the rhetoric and the real benefits that tourism has been producing in the local societies and economies of these regions. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Franchising in Europe: Exploring the Case of Spain with Self‐organizing Time Maps

Economic crises affect both the organizational side and the brand side of the franchise. Using self‐organizing time maps, this study examines how franchise brand behavior influences decisions by potential franchisees in Spain. The findings confirm that franchising offers an alternative to the business turnaround strategy, which firms apply when faced with adverse changes in the environment such as those caused by the economic crisis in Spain. Results show that all franchise brands within the same sector behaved similarly, except for brands in the catering sector, which displayed varying responses to the economic changes. The authors discuss the implications of these results for future franchisees.     

Do Artificial Neural Networks Provide Better Forecasts? Evidence from Latin American Stock Indexes

ABSTRACT

Forecasting is a key activity for academics and investors in the fields of finance and economics. This paper explores the usefulness of the non-linear artificial neural network (ANN) for forecasting Latin American stock indexes. Our goal is to estimate and compare the forecast accuracy of the ANN with three traditional models: random walk, ARMA, and GARCH. Our results provide strong support for the ANN as a potentially useful device for predicting Latin American stock indexes. ANN forecasts are more accurate than those of more traditional methods, and the results are robust using the Diebold and Mariano test and encompassing regressions.

RESUMEN. Trazar previsiones es, ciertamente, una de las actividades claves de los académicos e inversores en el campo de las finanzas y la economía. Este estudio explora la utilidad de una red artificial neural no lineal (ANN) para pronosticar los índices bursátiles latinoamericanos. Nuestra meta consiste en estimar y comparar la precisión de la previsión de una ANN con tres modelos tradicionales: el paso aleatorio, ARMA y GARCH. Nuestros resultados suministran fuerte apoyo a las ANN como un dispositivo potencialmente útil para predecir los índices bursátiles en Latinoamérica. Las previsiones ANN son más precisas que aquellas obtenidas con los métodos más tradicionales, y los resultados obtenidos utilizando las pruebas Diebold y Mariano y respectivas regresiones son más robustas.

RESUMO. A previsão é uma atividade fundamental para os acadêmicos e investidores no campo da economia e das finanças. Este estudo investiga a utilidade da Rede Neural Artificial (ANN) não-linear, para prever os índices das ações na América Latina. O nosso objetivo é avaliar e comparar a precisão do prognóstico da ANN com três modelos tradicionais: a movimentação aleatória, ARMA e GARCH. Os resultados obtidos reforçam a ANN como um dispositivo potencialmente útil na previsão dos índices de ações da América Latina. As previsões da ANN são mais precisas do que as previsões feitas por métodos tradicionais, e os resultados são significativos, utilizando o teste e as regressões Diebold e Mariano envolvidas.     

Fiscal Consolidations: A Theoretical Essay with a Heterogeneous-Agent Model

Since the emergence of the financial crisis, most of the EU countries have promoted impressive public interventions to support financial institutions, contributing to a significant rise in general government gross debt-to-GDP ratios. As such, the issue of how to best pursue a fiscal consolidation will become crucial regarding the fiscal policy stance. This paper aims at characterizing four different stylized debt consolidation strategies extensively identified in the literature (one pure revenue-based and three expenditure-based) in order to assess welfare affects and, in particular, the inequality effects involved. For this purpose, we built a general equilibrium heterogeneous-agent model capable of exploring the relationship between fiscal policy and the endogenous cross-section distribution of income and wealth. Moreover, we decompose the impacts on welfare criteria in order to distinguish pure efficiency effects from insurance and inequality effects. According to our simulations, the adjustment based on the reduction of unproductive expenditures came out to be the most welfare-enhancing compared to those based on tax increases or on social transfer reductions.     

Mergers & acquisitions research: A bibliometric study of top strategy and international business journals, 1980–2010

Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) are important modes through which firms carry out their domestic and international strategies and have been noted as the CEOs favorite strategy. As a significant field of study, M&A-research has accumulated substantial knowledge. This bibliometric study examines the extant strategy and international business literature on M&As. Methodologically, we examined a sample of 334 articles published in sixteen leading management/business journals, during a 31 year period — from 1980 to 2010. The results provide a global perspective of the field, identifying the works that have had the greater impact, the intellectual interconnections among authors and works, the main research traditions, or themes, delved upon on M&A-related research. Structural and longitudinal analyses reveal the changes in the intellectual structure of the field over time. A discussion on the accumulated knowledge and future research avenues concludes this paper.