Interest differentials and extreme support for uncovered interest rate parity

This paper addresses two findings from the empirical literature testing uncovered interest parity (UIP): (i) more favorable results when interest differentials (IDs) are large and (ii) instability across samples. Simulations demonstrate that explanations of the results using large IDs based on the hypothesis of a “zone of speculative inactivity” are inconsistent with empirical evidence. Furthermore, it is shown that, if agents forecast IDs based on long-run values, coefficient estimates will be unstable if rates of decay in IDs vary significantly and, for ex post UIP to hold, IDs must decay in absolute value. This is consistent with OECD country data.     

For the greater good: business networks and business social responsibility to communities

Business networks (co-operative arrangements between independent business organizations) may be the signature organizational form of the contemporary global economy. Many policy-makers and local leaders advocate business network membership as an alternative development strategy for regional economic vitality. The extant literature on business networks has focused on their association with business success. However, little is known about their impact on other aspects of community life. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate the role of network membership on one non-economic dimension of the business community interface. We examined the relationship between business network membership and business social responsibility to communities, defined as the provision of leadership and support for community betterment projects. Data were gathered from telephone interviews with a random sample of 460 non-metro small business operators in the USA. Independent t-tests and ordinary least squares regression analyses controlling for theoretically important variables were conducted. Findings show that networked businesses provide more leadership and support for their communities than non-networked businesses. However, networked businesses were no more likely than non-networked businesses to use local suppliers of goods and services.     

Economic importance and statistical significance: Guidelines for communicating empirical research

Abstract

A critical objective for many empirical studies is a thorough evaluation of both substantive importance and statistical significance. Feminist economists have critiqued neoclassical economics studies for an excessive focus on statistical machinery at the expense of substantive issues. Drawing from the ongoing debate about the rhetoric of economic inquiry and significance tests, this paper examines approaches for presenting empirical results effectively to ensure that the analysis is accurate, meaningful, and relevant for the conceptual and empirical context. To that end, it demonstrates several measurement issues that affect the interpretation of economic significance and are commonly overlooked in empirical studies. This paper provides guidelines for clearly communicating two distinct aspects of “significance” in empirical research, using prose, tables, and charts based on OLS, logit, and probit regression results. These guidelines are illustrated with samples of ineffective writing annotated to show weaknesses, followed by concrete examples and explanations of improved presentation.     

An Empirical Investigation into the Perception of Vehicle Source Effects

Advertising managers, educators and regulators alike have observed the growth of federal programs mandating the form or content of consumer information disclosures. Although this activity often has been warranted, at times these programs may have had unintended “deceptive” effects. Examples might include the USDA's food grading systems, some of the FTC's corrective advertising activities and certain programs of affirmative disclosure of product information (e.g, gasoline octane ratings and the cigarette health warning). To avoid these problems one must give attention to principles learned from communication and attitude research. Further, such programs will benefit greatly from before-after impact evaluation studies to insure that results correspond with objectives.     

Changes over time in the return to education in urban China: Conventional and ORU estimates

Studies of the return to education in urban China have reported that this has increased over time, and that females typically have a higher return than males. In this paper we adopt a framework provided by the over education/required education/under education literature, and the decomposition developed by Chiswick and Miller (2008), to investigate the reasons for these findings. The finding by Chen and Hamori (2009), from analysis of data for 2004 and 2006, of the return to schooling for males exceeding that for females, is also examined using this decomposition.     

Reasonableness and Section 4 of the Employment Act 1980

This article explains the origins of s.4 of the Employment Act 1980 and assesses the place of this provision in the corpus of labour legislation enacted by the Conservative government since 1980. Its principal aim is to concentrate upon the concept of reasonableness which is central to the operation of the provision and to evaluate critically the role of the EAT and the industrial tribunals in interpreting it. Finally, the article seeks to assess the impact of the tribunaľs interpretation of s.4 on union admission and expulsion procedures.     

Regularity conditions and scope estimates: The case of large-sized U.S. banks

We consider economies and diseconomies of scope for large U.S. banks by employing ordinary and hybrid translog cost functions. We examine the regularity conditions in output space where scope estimates are calculated and reject all models for which these conditions fail. The translog model always possesses violations. For the hybrid translog, violations occur in every case except one. In this one case, we find economies of scope.     

Swinburne's Challenge: A Note on Probability Estimates for Nontypical Potential Evidence Instances

General confirmation theory, and especially its Bayesian variant, has never been able to adequately address the issue of how to handle qualitative evidence instances. Such statements encompass a wide class including historical claims, those of the human sciences not incorporating quantitative models, legal statements and the like. The issue was recognized by the philosopher Swinburne (1973) who puzzled how such statements as, Caesar crossed the Rubicon, could be assigned a meaningful probability estimate. The present paper suggests that such statements can be transformed into, at least, plausible probability estimates. This requires a two step process: judgements made by credible raters, and the transformation of judgements into one or more reliability co-efficients. These reliability estimates can then be utilized in the standard Bayesian model to yield plausible degrees of belief between hypothesis and evidence.