The export-productivity relationship: A time series representation for Austria

Zusammenfassung Der in vielen westlichen Industriel?ndern zu beobachtende positive Zusammenhang zwischen Produktivit?ts- und Exportwachstum führte zu zwei einander entgegengesetzten kausalen Hypothesen. Die erste, von Vertretern des “Export-led-growth”-Modells vorgebrachte Hypothese geht davon aus, da? das Produktivit?tswachstum im wesentlichen über das Exportwachstum bestimmt wird. Dagegen sieht die zweite, auf dem Ricardo-Modell und den Theorien des intra-industriellen Handels beruhende Hypothese das Wachstum der Exporte von der Produktivit?t bestimmt. Die Richtung in der Kausalit?t zwischen Exporten und Produktivit?t hat entsprechende Konsequenzen für die Einsch?tzung von Instrumenten der Industriepolitik. W?hrend das “Export-led-growth”-Modell und jüngere Au?enhandelstheorien Wechselkursabwertungen bzw. Exportsubventionen zur Ankurbelung der Exporte und damit der Produktivit?t nahelegen, ziehen die Theorien des intra-industriellen Handels eine Subvention von Forschung und Entwicklung und/oder des Outputs als wirkungsvollere Ma?nahmen zur Beschleunigung der Produktivit?t vor. Der Aufsatz untersucht anhand ?sterreichischen Datenmaterials, welche der beiden Kausalhypothesen mit der beobachteten Entwicklung der Exporte, der Produktivit?t und der Terms of Trade kompatibel ist. Dabei bedient sich die Arbeit des Wiener-Granger-Konzepts als statistischer Test auf Kausalit?t. Zudem werden Simulationen durchgeführt, um die dynamischen Eigenschaften der untersuchten Zeitreihen zu bestimmen.      

Disorganization and financial collapse

Since the fall of communism, the former Soviet Union experienced a strong output decline and a dramatic increase in arrears and barter. We develop a model which explains how these three phenomena are connected. We introduce liquidity and credit constraints into a model of disorganization and show how these problems can alleviate the hold-up problem. We argue further that barter creates a hostage that allows to deal with disorganization when credit enforcement becomes prohibitively costly. Based on a firm survey in Ukraine in 1997, we test how input shortages, financial shortages and barter affect output growth of firms.     

What Explains the Rise in Executive Pay in Germany? A Panel Data Analysis for 1977–2009

Executive compensation in Germany has become highly controversial since Vodafone's hostile takeover of Mannesmann in 2000. It has again been in the spotlight since the outbreak of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. Using a unique panel dataset of the 500 largest firms in Germany in the period 1977–2009, we find that executives tend to be rewarded when the sector is doing well rather than the firm they work for. Furthermore, we find that CEO pay and the demand for managers increases in Germany in difficult times when the typical firm size shrinks. Finally, domestic and global competition for managers appear to contribute to the rise in executive pay.     

Explaining the exchange rate pass-through in different prices

This paper examines the performance of a variety of new open economy macroeconomic models in explaining the exchange rate pass-through in a wide range of prices. Quantitative versions of different models are used to derive the dynamic response of various prices to an exchange rate shock. Predicted responses are compared with the evidence based on VAR models to examine how well different models fit the data. The results show that the best-fitting model incorporates a number of features highlighted by different strands of the literature: sticky prices, sticky wages, distribution costs and a combination of local (LCP) and producer currency pricing (PCP).     

Impact of Currency Boards on Fiscal Policy in Central and Eastern European Countries

The paper focuses on the impact of currency boards on fiscal policy in transition economies. Starting with an overview of theoretical and empirical studies in the related area, it tests for the interaction between monetary policy regimes and fiscal policy in Central and Eastern European countries who aim for the membership in the European Union. The theoretical background of this study lies in the model of Tornell and Velasco (1998). They demonstrate that fiscal transfers do not ultimately depend on the chosen exchange rate and monetary policy, but only on the worlds real rate of interest and the rate of time preference of the fiscal authority. A sample of 10 accession candidates constitutes a group of countries which go through similar macroeconomic stabilisation processes but have chosen different nominal anchors. The paper investigates whether there are any systematic differences between those countries with a currency board arrangement and those without. The empirical evidence suggests that currency boards enhance fiscal discipline in Central and Eastern European countries.     

INVESTOR OVEROPTIMISM AND PRIVATE EQUITY PLACEMENTS

We reexamine investor tendency to overweight recent experiences when predicting future performance of firms by examining a sample of firms making private equity placements. Our findings are consistent with the projection argument that investors use the recent experiences of other firms to predict the success of placing firms. Specifically, we find that the placements preceded by a larger number of recently very successful firms are associated with the significantly more favorable market reaction to the placement announcement and significantly poorer post‐placement stock price performance.     

Structural change through exchange rate policy

Zusammenfassung Strukturwandel durch Wechselkurspolitik. -Dieser Aufsatz untersucht, ob und wie die Wechselkurspolitik Produktivit?t und Qualit?t industrieller Produkte beeinflu?t. Anhand ?sterreichischer Daten wird gezeigt, da? Aufwertungen des Schillings die strukturelle Anpassung im ?sterreichischen Exportsektor begünstigt haben. In den siebziger Jahren haben reale Aufwertungen die Produktivit?t erh?ht und die Produktqualit?t verbessert, weil die Firmen ihre Wettbewerbsf?higkeit aufrechterhalten wollten. Es wird gezeigt, da? dies im Einklang mit dem Produktzyklusmodell und dem Modell des importinduzierten Wachstums steht, welche eine positive Beziehung zwischen dem Wechselkurs und der nicht durch den Preis bestimmten Wettbewerbsf?higkeit nahelegen.

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Résumé Changement structurel par la politique de taux de change. -Cet article explore l'influence de la politique de taux de change sur la productivité industrielle et la qualité des produits. Il est démontré par des données autrichiennes que les révalorisations du schilling ont favorisé l'ajustement structurel dans le secteur exportatrice autrichien. Pendant les années soixante-dix les révalorisations réels ont mené à une productivité plus haute et amélioré la qualité des produits parce que les entreprises cherchaient à maintenir leur capacité concurrentielle. Suivant l'auteur cela se trouve en conformité avec le ?product-cycle? modèle et le ?import-led-growth? modèle suggérant une relation positive entre le taux de change et la capacité concurrentielle non-prix.

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Resumen Ajuste estructural através de la política cambiaria. -Este trabajo explora el efecto de la política de cambios sobre la productividad industrial y la calidad de los productos. Utilizando datos austríacos se muestra que las revaluaciones del tipo de cambio favorecen el ajuste estructural en el sector exportador austríaco. En los a?os setenta, las revaluaciones del tipo de cambio contribuyeron a aumentar la productividad y a mejorar la calidad de los productos, dado que las empresas estaban preocupadas por mantener su margen competitivo. Esto concuerda con la teoría del ciclo del producto y con el modelo de crecimiento inducido hacia las importaciones, que sugiere la existencia de una relación positiva entre el tipo de cambio y la competitividad no basada en el precio.

     

Corporate hierarchies and international trade: Theory and evidence

Corporate organization varies within countries and between countries. We develop a theory which explains the variation in levels of decentralization across firms and links it to the trade environment that firms face. We introduce firms with internal hierarchies in a Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) model of international trade. We show that international trade increases the conflict of interest between CEO/owners and middle managers within firms and these eventually lead to decentralized corporate hierarchies. We test the theory with original data on the internal organizations of 2200 Austrian and German firms and find that the empirical evidence is consistent with the model's predictions.