DYNAMIC CDO TERM STRUCTURE MODELING

This paper provides a unifying approach for valuing contingent claims on a portfolio of credits, such as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). We introduce the defaultable (T, x) ‐bonds, which pay one if the aggregated loss process in the underlying pool of the CDO has not exceeded x at maturity T, and zero else. Necessary and sufficient conditions on the stochastic term structure movements for the absence of arbitrage are given. Background market risk as well as feedback contagion effects of the loss process are taken into account. Moreover, we show that any exogenous specification of the volatility and contagion parameters actually yields a unique consistent loss process and thus an arbitrage‐free family of (T, x) ‐bond prices. For the sake of analytical and computational efficiency we then develop a tractable class of doubly stochastic affine term structure models.     

Post‐socialist transition and intergenerational educational mobility in Kyrgyzstan

We investigate long‐term trends in intergenerational educational mobility in a lower middle‐income transition economy. We draw on evidence from Kyrgyzstan using data from three household surveys collected in 1993, 1998 and 2011. We find that Kyrgyzstan, like Eastern European middle‐income transition economies, maintained high educational mobility, comparable to levels during the Soviet era. However, we find that the younger cohorts, exposed to the transition during their school years, experienced a rapid decline in educational mobility. We also document that gender differences in schooling and educational mobility, found among older‐aged individuals, disappeared in the younger cohorts.     

Credit Derivatives in an Affine Framework

An efficient method for valuing credit derivatives based on three entities is developed in an affine framework. This includes interdependence of market and credit risk, joint credit migration and counterparty default risk of three firms. As an application we provide closed form expressions for the joint distribution of default times, default correlations, and default swap spreads in the presence of counterparty default risk. Vienna Institute of Finance is funded by WWTF (Vienna Science and Technology Fund).     

Polynomial diffusions and applications in finance

This paper provides the mathematical foundation for polynomial diffusions. They play an important role in a growing range of applications in finance, including financial market models for interest rates, credit risk, stochastic volatility, commodities and electricity. Uniqueness of polynomial diffusions is established via moment determinacy in combination with pathwise uniqueness. Existence boils down to a stochastic invariance problem that we solve for semialgebraic state spaces. Examples include the unit ball, the product of the unit cube and nonnegative orthant, and the unit simplex.     

Optimal capital and risk allocations for law- and cash-invariant convex functions

In this paper we provide a complete solution to the existence and characterization problem of optimal capital and risk allocations for not necessarily monotone, law-invariant convex risk measures on the model space L ^p for any p∈[1,∞]. Our main result says that the capital and risk allocation problem always admits a solution via contracts whose payoffs are defined as increasing Lipschitz-continuous functions of the aggregate risk. Filipović is supported by WWTF (Vienna Science and Technology Fund). Svindland gratefully acknowledges financial support from Munich Re Grant for doctoral students and hospitality of the Research Unit of Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, Vienna University of Technology. We thank Beatrice Acciaio and Walter Schachermayer for fruitful discussions and an anonymous referee for helpful remarks.     

Density approximations for multivariate affine jump-diffusion processes

We introduce closed-form transition density expansions for multivariate affine jump-diffusion processes. The expansions rely on a general approximation theory which we develop in weighted Hilbert spaces for random variables which possess all polynomial moments. We establish parametric conditions which guarantee existence and differentiability of transition densities of affine models and show how they naturally fit into the approximation framework. Empirical applications in option pricing, credit risk, and likelihood inference highlight the usefulness of our expansions. The approximations are extremely fast to evaluate, and they perform very accurately and numerically stable.     

The Fed’s TRAP

The article examines if US monetary policy implicitly responds to asset price booms. Using real-time data and a GMM framework we estimate a Taylor-type rule with an asset variable that captures phases of booms and busts in the real estate market. We identify quasi real-time booms and busts using an asset cycle dating procedure. Our analysis yields two main findings. Firstly, the Fed does implicitly respond to asset price booms in the real estate market. Secondly, these responses are typically pro-cyclic and their intensity changes over time.     

Market price of risk specifications for affine models: Theory and evidence

We extend the standard specification of the market price of risk for affine yield models, and apply it to U.S. Treasury data. Our specification often provides better fit, sometimes with very high statistical significance. The improved fit comes from the time-series rather than cross-sectional features of the yield curve. We derive conditions under which our specification does not admit arbitrage opportunities. The extension has extremely strong statistical significance for affine yield models with multiple square-root type variables. Although we focus on affine yield models, our specification can be used with other asset pricing models as well.     

OPTIMAL CAPITAL AND RISK TRANSFERS FOR GROUP DIVERSIFICATION

Diversification is at the core of insurance and other financial business. It constitutes an important issue in the preparation of the new Solvency II framework for the regulation of European insurance undertakings. In this paper, we propose a conceptual framework for a legally enforceable capital and risk transfer which optimally accounts for the designated group diversification benefits. We also provide a consistent valuation principle which is compatible with any prior valuation method. This makes our framework fully flexible and universally applicable. A first simple numerical example illustrates the practicability of our proposal.     

Household survey data for research on well-being and behavior in Central Asia

This paper summarizes the micro-level survey evidence from Central Asia generated and analyzed in the period 1991–2012. We provide an exhaustive overview over all accessible individual and household-level surveys undertaken in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – and of all academic papers published using these datasets. We argue that Central Asia is a fascinating region for the study of comparative economics given its dual experience of transition and development. However, the region is also understudied, in part due to lack of data, and especially due to a lack of panel data. We identify knowledge gaps derived from this lack of longitudinal surveys and suggest worthwhile areas for future research. Finally, we also present a new and novel individual-level panel dataset called “Life in Kyrgyzstan”.