Infant mortality: an insured population perspective

Many insurers offer life coverage to individuals during the first year of life. The policies tend to have small face values, but frequently contain premium waiver or additional purchase options. General population mortality is significantly higher at this age relative to older children and even middle-aged adults. This article presents the mortality experience of an insured cohort in which death occurred under 1 year of age. In summary, the insured population's mortality rate was significantly lower and the leading causes of death were different than the general population.     

What makes global firms resilient?

In his book and TV series Commanding Heights, Daniel Yergin traces the arc of globalization, illuminating the vitality of market capitalism and the unpredictability and fragility of markets. In this conversation, he considers where the growth will be in the next 20 years, what oil companies know about managing through uncertain times, and the unexpected course that globalization is currently taking.     

Monte Carlo theoretical trials of methods for assessing statistical significance for differences between adjusted odds ratios

Odds are generally defined as the number of successes divided by the number of failures in a given number of trials. An odds ratio is the ratio of one odds divided by another. Odds ratios can be adjusted to reflect associations with the outcome independently of the influence of associations with other variables. These are adjusted odds ratios. There are several well known methods for comparing odds ratios and testing for statistically significant differences between them. Analogous methods for adjusted odds ratios are not well known or well documented. One method for comparing adjusted odds ratios is explained by Hosmer and Lemeshow (Applied logistic regression, 2000). This method is used for the odds ratios for two variables from the same data set. The purpose of this analysis was to apply this method to a different situation: comparing odds ratios for the same variable from two different data sets. Monte Carlo trials were used to assess the performance of the method and these indicated the method performed well.     

Asymmetric information as a barrier to knowledge spillovers in expert markets

This paper investigates barriers to effective knowledge spillovers for markets in which the product can be characterized as a credence good, i.e. its complexity impedes the evaluation of quality by customers both ex-ante and ex-post. We focus on the German market for energy efficiency consultants, as an emerging and subsidized sector in which the service offered has strong credence good properties. Based upon in-depth interviews with stakeholders, we analyze the determinants and barriers to knowledge spillovers. We find that the incentive to foster spillovers to increase suppliers’ knowledge is limited by the difficult commercialization of additional capabilities. The implementation of a public certification scheme has failed to increase the sectoral knowledge spillovers. By contrast, the participation in formal knowledge networks has been more effective in prompting companies to foster knowledge spillovers, which has also led to a higher degree of specialization. We conclude that access to certification schemes should be further restricted to increase market transparency and private networks should be supported to achieve the aim of increasing knowledge spillovers.     

Community-Based Tradable Permits for Localized Pollution

This paper considers the assignment of tradable permits—representing property rights of an environmental good—to community members who are harmed by pollution generated by firms. These community members can in turn sell permits to polluters according to their personal preferences. For a special case with a sole household, market transactions between the household and polluters achieve an efficient pollution level. However, for a group of households, the decentralized market solution fails to yield social efficiency because of competitive consumption of the environmental goods. We design a revenue-sharing mechanism akin to unitization, under which market transactions also achieve efficient resource allocation. Importantly, in some cases, efficiency can be achieved even when regulators are ignorant of the private valuation of the environmental good.     

Intolerable nuisances: some laboratory evidence on survivor curve shapes

The fraction of a user population willing to tolerate nuisances of size x is summarized in the survivor curve S(x); its shape is crucial in economic decisions such as pricing and advertising. We report a laboratory experiment that, for the first time, estimates the shape of survivor curves in several different settings. Laboratory subjects engage in a series of six desirable activities, e.g., playing a video game, viewing a chosen video clip, or earning money by answering questions. For each activity and each subject we introduce a chosen level \(x \in [x_{\min }, x_{\max }]\) of a particular nuisance, and the subject chooses whether to tolerate the nuisance or to switch to a bland activity for the remaining time. New non-parametric techniques provide bounds on the empirical survivor curves for each activity. Parametric fits of the classic Weibull distribution provide estimates of the survivor curves’ shapes. The fitted shape parameter depends on the activity and nuisance, but overall the estimated survivor curves tend to be log-convex. An implication, given the model of Aperjis and Huberman (SSRN, doi:  10.2139/ssrn.1672820, 2011), is that introducing nuisances all at once will generally be more profitable than introducing them gradually.     

Psychological contract violations during corporate restructuring

The authors examine the nature, extent, and consequences of psychological contract violations which occur in restructuring firms. Managers in restructuring firms were significantly more likely to perceive psychological contract violations in the areas of job security, input into decision making, opportunities for advancement, and amount of responsibility. Managers in restructuring firms were also significantly more likely to be looking for new jobs and were significantly less likely to be loyal to their employers. Several situational factors mitigated against managersß strong negative reactions to psychological contract violations: procedural justice in how layoffs are handled, low likelihood of future violations, and positive working relationships with colleagues. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Statistical tests for multiple forecast comparison

We consider a multivariate version of the Diebold–Mariano test for equal predictive ability of three or more forecasting models. The Wald-type test, $S$, which has a null distribution that is asymptotically chi-squared, is shown to be generally invariant with respect to the ordering of the models being compared. Finite-sample corrections for the test are also developed. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that $S$ has reasonable size properties in large samples but tends to be oversized in moderate samples. The finite-sample correction succeeds in correcting for size, but only partially. For the size-adjusted tests, power increases with sample size, as expected. It is speculated that further finite-sample improvements can be achieved using Hotelling’s $T^2$ or bootstrap critical values.     

MONETARY POLICY IN EMU WITH ASYMMETRIC TRANSMISSION AND NON-TRADABLE GOODS

Which policy objective should a central bank pursue in a monetary union with asymmetric monetary transmission and different rates of inflation? Should it base its decisions on the EU‐wide average of inflation and growth or should it instead focus on (appropriately weighted) national utility losses based on national rates of inflation and growth? We find that a policy which minimises the sum of national utility losses leads to higher average utility if the variability of common shocks is large relative to idiosyncratic demand shocks in the non‐tradables sectors. We draw conclusions for the appropriate weight of common and national objectives in the union.