The crisis of urbanization in Asia: finding alternatives to megalopolitan growth

The rapid expansion of large Asian cities generates serious social, economic, and physical problems, and has thereby forced these areas to create alternative expansion plans, such as the idea of building up secondary cities and towns. The result of the rapid expansion of large cities, combined with poor urban management, accentuates the mass poverty in many Asian cities. This large urban population is expected to double or triple in size between 1970 and 2000. Because substantial resources are required to manage these megalopolitan areas, it is reasonable to deduce that millions of these city dwellers will be living in absolute poverty by 2000. It is the prospect of continued rapid growth over the next 2 decades that presents the most serious problem for Asian countries. Most metropolises cannot provide enough jobs for the current work force. In addition, public facilities, housing, transportation, and health services are examples of other problems threatened by a heavy concentration of people. Attempts to control this growth have been unsuccessful, mainly due to the 1950s and 1960s emphasis on productive investment, which left rural regions underdeveloped and poor. Secondary cities and regional centers in Asia perform important functions in promoting widespread economic and social development: 1) they stimulate rural economies and therefore establish a pattern of step-wise migration, and 2) they absorb population and therefore, relieve some of the pressure put on the largest metropolitan areas. Studies of secondary cities and their attempts at controlling growth of large metropolitan centers suggest broad guidelines for strategies. Some of these are: 1) the existence of large metropolises has little effect on the growth of primate cities; 2) few controls on growth of large areas are likely to be effective unless there are viable alternative locations at which high threshold economic activities can operate; 3) secondary cities must be closely related to the agricultural economies of their rural hinterlands; and 4) attention must be given to improving transportation and other communication between large metropolitan centers, secondary cities, and smaller cities and towns. The continued concentration of people and economic activities in vast megalopolitan areas will continue to generate serious economic and social problems that may help stimulate the evolution of some of these strategies.     

NOTE ON HARMONIC MOTION AND THE COBWEB THEOREM*

This note critically examines some recent studies which have rejected the cobweb theorem as an explanation of agricultural production cycles in favour of an alternative model, harmonic motion. It is argued that the only fundamental distinction between the two models lies in the behavivoural decision rule which they assume, and that some of the arguments put forward by proponents of the harmonic motion model are illusory.