Optimum government credibility in an open-economy fiscal expansion

A real open-economy model is constructed in which the government's commitment to a future fiscal expansion is not credible. Government credibility (measured by the growth rate of the probability that the expansion will occur) becomes a parameter of the system and appears directly in the eigenvalues. Simulations are performed demonstrating the effect of credibility on GNP, the exchange rate, and other variables. Lastly, the optimum credibility is determined which minimizes a loss function associated with deviations from full employment.     

Dimensions of International Negotiation: A Test of Iklé's Typology

Results from statistical analyses of 30 cases of international negotiations supported Iklé's typology of negotiating objectives. The cases, sampled from the collection of Pew Case Studies in International Affairs, were distinguished in terms of five objectives: innovation, redistribution, extension, normalization, and side effects. In addition, a sixth objective was identified: negotiations concerning the creation of multilateral regimes. These cases focused on issues that surfaced on the international agenda during the 1980s. Each type had a relatively distinct profile based on such aspects of negotiation as the number of parties and issues, bargaining strategies, media exposure, stability of the process, and types of outcomes. The methodology contributes to the state-of-the art in comparative analysis and the results have implications for the development of middle-range theories of negotiation. They also contribute to practice, by enabling negotiators to evaluate future cases in terms of knowledge about past cases.     

Gas Utility Prices in a Restructured Industry

The natural gas industry has witnessed significant policy changes since 1978. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has undertaken a number of policy initiatives designed to promote competition in the natural gas industry. These initiatives have affected both natural gas pipeline and local gas distribution companies. This study provides an empirical examination of the impact of restructuring on local gas distribution utilities' residential, commercial, and industrial prices.     

金融市场发展与金融风险防范研究

随着防范和化解金融风险问题研究的深入,揭示和探讨金融风险的深层原因及根本性防范化解措施非常重要。本文分析了金融市场效率、信息不对称引发金融风险的两个深层原因及治理策略,并认为资产证券化是防范和化解金融风险的重要举措     

Bargaining with asymmetric information in non-stationary markets

Summary. The Rubinstein and Wolinsky bargaining-in-markets framework is modified by the introduction of asymmetric information and non-stationarity. Non-stationarity is introduced in the form of an arbitrary stochastic Markov process which captures the dynamics of market entry and pairwise matching. A new technique is used for establishing existence and characterizing the unique outcome of a non-stationary market equilibrium. The impact of market supply and demand on bilateral bargaining outcomes and matching probabilities is explored. The results are useful for examining such questions as why coordination failures and macroeconomic output fluctuations are correlated with real and monetary shocks. Received: July 22, 1994; revised version: January 21, 1998     

国内企业最易操作的激励模式:虚拟股票

虚拟股票是一种以收益分享和价值分享为指导思想的激励手段,一般由企业安排专项基金,免费为激励对象发放若干虚拟的“股票”,激励对象根据所拥有的“股权”享受相应的价值、分红权或股价升值收益.虚拟股票不会影响公司的股权结构,操作非常方便,不仅具有长期激励的效果,同时还克服了期股和期权等其他激励理论的缺点和实际运用中的不足.     

Services and functions provided by European city tourist offices: a longitudinal study

Tourism has become a major source of employment, revenue, international awareness and opportunity in European cities. As competition among European cities grows, the efficiency of management in city tourism organisations (CTOs) becomes increasingly important. This article reports on a longitudinal study of 50 European CTOs over the 4‐year period from 1995 to 1999. The aim of the study is to examine the changes in functions provided by European CTOs during the given period of time. Findings reveal that five identifiable function categories can characterise the changes that happened during the given period of time: hotel booking service, commerce, conventional information dissemination, advanced information product and relationship management. It is argued that information technology and role change are the main driving forces of these changes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

从《二马》看老舍早年的人生观

长篇小说《二马》以不同的人物形象,通过中外文化的比较,揭示了中华民族“官本位”的危害,发出了“打破官迷”的强劲呼声,展示了其独特的人生观。老舍正是以此目标走完了自己的人生路,为中国的有出息耗尽了最后的心血。这一理念不仅在当时意义重大。在今天仍有着不容忽视的价值。     

Why does sovereign risk differ for domestic and external debt? Evidence from Scandinavia, 1938–1948

This study shows empirically that the political costs of sovereign default can differ considerably for domestic and external debt. The analysis uses new evidence from Danish and Swedish bond markets around World War II, a time when markets went from being fully integrated to fully segmented overnight. By linking the exogenous wartime shocks to changes in default costs on domestic and external debt, it is found that these costs explain a significant part of the variation in the sovereign yield spread across markets. The results suggest that governments can choose strategically on which debt, the domestic or the external, to default on, and that this decision hinges on the relative size of the political default costs.