Prämienanpassungen im Risikoklassenmodell der Privaten Krankenversicherung

In Zähle (Blätter DGVFM 31:39–64, 2010), a risk class model for the portability of the reserves for increasing age in Germany’s private health insurance system was introduced. In the present article, this model is extended in such a way that also successive premium adjustments are taken into account. In our model, the current risk class of an insurant does not play any role for a premium adjustment. In fact, only the risk class, to which the insurant belonged at the beginning of the contract, matters for a premium adjustment. From a mathematical point of view, our model provides a neat solution for the problem of the portability of the reserves for increasing age. In particular, the presented model is a real extension of the conventional model of Germany’s private health insurance system insofar as the conventional model can be recovered by restricting to a single risk class. So the well-tried premium calculation principle will basically remain.     

Analyst coverage,earnings management and financial development: An international study

Using data from 21 countries, this paper analyzes the relation among analyst coverage, earnings management and financial development in an international context. We document that the effectiveness of financial analysts as monitors increases with a country’s financial development (FD). We find that in high-FD countries, increased within-firm analyst coverage results in less earnings management. Such is not the case in low-FD countries. Our results are economically significant and robust to reverse causality checks. Our findings illustrate one mechanism through which financial development mitigates the cost of monitoring firms and curbs earnings management.     

Mean and dispersion modelling for policy claims costs

A model for the statistical analysis of the total amount of insurance paid out on a policy is developed and applied. The model simultaneously deals with the number of claims (zero or more) and the amount of each claim. The number of claims is from a Poisson-based discrete distribution. Individual claim sizes are from a continuous right skewed distribution. The resulting distribution of total claim size is a mixed discrete-continuous model, with positive probability of a zero claim. The means and dispersions of the claim frequency and claim size distribution are modeled in terms of risk factors. The model is applied to a car insurance data set.     

保税监管区域外汇管理政策研究

本文从回顾保税监管区域的设置及其外汇管理政策的沿革入手,分析了现行保税监管区域外汇管理政策存在的问题,提出了拓展政策外延、重构政策顶层设计、鼓励先行先试、防控交易风险、完善外汇管理法规、健全保税监管区域货物贸易统计监测制度等政策建议.     

Supply function equilibria: Step functions and continuous representations

In most electricity markets generators must submit step-function offers to a uniform price auction. These markets are often modelled as simpler pure-strategy Supply Function Equilibria (SFE) with continuous supply functions. Critics argue that the discreteness and discontinuity of the required steps drastically change Nash equilibria, invalidating predictions of the SFE model. We prove that there are sufficient conditions, offered quantities can be continuously varied, offered prices are selected from a finite set, and the density of the additive demand shock is not too steep, where the resulting stepped SFE converges to the continuous SFE as the number of steps increases, reconciling the apparently very disparate approaches to modelling electricity markets.     

The Intergenerational Transfer of Solar Radiation Management Capabilities and Atmospheric Carbon Stocks

Solar radiation management (SRM) technologies are considered one of the likeliest forms of geoengineering. If developed, a future generation could deploy them to limit the damages caused by the atmospheric carbon stock inherited from the current generation, despite their negative side effects. Should the current generation develop these geoengineering capabilities for a future generation? And how would a decision to develop SRM impact on the current generation’s abatement efforts? Natural scientists, ethicists, and other scholars argue that future generations could be more sanguine about the side effects of SRM deployment than the current generation. In this paper, we add economic rigor to this important debate on the intergenerational transfer of technological capabilities and pollution stocks. We identify three conjectures that constitute potentially rational courses of action for current society, including a ban on the development of SRM. However, the same premises that underpin these conjectures also allow for a novel possibility: If the development of SRM capabilities is sufficiently cheap, the current generation may for reasons of intergenerational strategy decide not just to develop SRM technologies, but also to abate more than in the absence of SRM.     

Assessment of innovative software technology: developing an end-user-initiated interface design strategy

Knowledge intensive services and, in particular, R&D services contribute significantly to innovation in firms. The objective of this paper is to find out which characteristics of firms explain the acquisition of R&D services and to analyse whether there are differences depending on the typology of the supplier (universities, technology centres and consulting firms). Three main conclusions emerge from the econometric estimations carried out with information from a survey of innovative firms in the region of Valencia in Spain. First, the results show that firm size and age matter in the decision to buy R&D services. Second, our results are consistent with the relevance that the literature gives to human capital in absorbing external knowledge. Third, innovation policy has a significant influence on the decision to acquire R&D services, particularly from universities and technology centres.     

Inter-war trade cycle theories in a poem by James Meade

John Caruthers (1836–1914), the Scottish civil engineer who built canals and railways many parts of the world, was a good friend of William Morris and an active supporter of the Scoialist League and then the Hammersmith Socialist Society. He advocated a non-bureaucratic socialism, which had only a limited state machinery and made considerable use of the market system, with money, banks and flexible prices. His ideas were elaborated in a long boon Communal and Commercial Economy (1883) and in a substantial article (1884) in To-Day (a leading London socialist periodical of the time) and elsewhere. The paper sets out his economic ideas in some detail, including his (implicit) emphasis on the Golden Rule in he choice of technique. These ideas were a considerale achievement for the early 1880s and it is perhaps unfortunate that they did not have a greater influence on the socialist movement.     

Vanity and the love of system in Theory of Moral Sentiments

Abstract

Some recent writing on Adam Smith's Theory of Moral Sentiments has emphasised the importance of vanity as one of the most important human motivations. This reading leads to a new version of Das Adam Smith Problem, but this is unwarranted. Such a reading tends to conceal the significance that Smith gave to the love of system, which motivates the actions of the philosopher, the man of state, and above all the entrepreneur. This paper shows, by contrast, that by using this conception we can relate Theory of Moral Sentiments to Wealth of Nations, and reject the idea that these works are based upon contradictory assumptions.     

Tourist market segmentation with linear and non-linear techniques

The need for in-depth knowledge of tourist market segments and the need to overcome the limitations of using linear techniques to analyse non-linear relationships requires a re-assessment of generally used approaches such as cluster analysis and multiple linear regression. The objectives of the research are (1) to consider the use of self-organising (SOM) neural networks for segmenting tourist markets and (2) to analyse the predictive ability of backpropagation (BP) neural networks for classifying tourists from follow-up surveys by using the output provided by a SOM neural network. The findings of the SOM neural network modelling indicate three natural clusters. In addition, the predictive ability of the BP neural network model appears to be superior to that of MLR static filter and logistic regression models. The BP neural network model developed for this application appears suitable for deployment (i.e. classification of tourists from follow-up surveys).