The contagion externality of a superspreading event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID‐19

Large in‐person gatherings of travelers who do not socially distance are classified as the “highest risk” for COVID‐19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). From August 7–16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual rally in an environment without mask‐wearing requirements or other mitigating policies. This study is the first to explore this event's public health impacts. First, using anonymized cell phone data, we document that foot traffic at restaurants/bars, retail establishments, and entertainment venues rose substantially at event locations. Stay‐at‐home behavior among local residents fell. Second, using a synthetic control approach, we find that the COVID‐19 case rate increased substantially in Meade County and in the state of South Dakota in the month following the Rally. Finally, using a difference‐in‐differences model to assess nationwide spread, we find that following the Sturgis event, counties outside of South Dakota that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 6.4–12.5% increase in COVID‐19 cases relative to counties without inflows. Our findings highlight that local policy decisions assessing the tradeoff between local economic benefits and COVID‐19 health costs will not be socially optimal in the presence of large contagion externalities.     

Entrepreneurs' responses to semi-formal illegitimate institutional arrangements

While prior research has discussed how entrepreneurs deal with formal institutional voids and informal institutional environments, little is known about how entrepreneurs respond to institutional arrangements involving illegitimate actors. We define such arrangements as semi-formal illegitimate institutions. Using an exploratory study, we examine one such arrangement in Guatemala City, where organized crime dominates the institutional landscape in which entrepreneurs operate. We examine the strategic responses of these entrepreneurs, and find that they vary in the extent to which they resist semi-formal illegitimate institutions; some entrepreneurs engage in defiance, others avoid the illegitimate pressures, while others simply acquiesce. Upon further investigation, we find that the differences in entrepreneurs' network strength and network proximity, combined with their individual perception of threat and resource mobility, help to predict the different strategic responses.     

The conflicting impacts of export fluctuations and diversification programmes

Abstract

While analyses of export instability and diversification policies typically focus on aggregate earnings, a conflict can arise between income instability at the aggregate and household levels. Diversification can reduce a country's aggregate income instability and simultaneously increase the instability experienced by many households, and perhaps by every household in the country. We demonstrate how alternative export portfolios can produce this conflict in instability. The conflict means that the conclusions from previous empirical studies need to be qualified and policy recommendations need to be carefully formulated.     

纤维的供给与需求:涤纶和锦纶价值链的结构转变

石化产品高昂的价格推动化纤产业链结构转变 随着世界经济表现出明显的上升势头,经济学家们开始用一种悲观的态度密切关注全球原油的情况.与此同时,由于一系列情节原料标准和规定的出台,美国汽油的价格正承受着很大的压力,使得汽油和供应系统都受到了很大影响.但是,正如基础能源和汽油价格上涨一样,基本芳香族和化学原料价格也有所增长.涤纶和腈纶原料价格增长背后的玄机其实和所有市场化的商品一样--中国需求的增长和最近几年经济下滑阶段投资不足导致生产和物流对每一个细节的微小变化都十分敏感.这种状况看起来暂时不会缓解,当市场期待纤维价格出现缓和趋势的时候,生产应该遵从一定规划,否则毫无计划的储运损耗将继续造成不稳定的上升趋势,同时,纤维交易价格会继续削弱纤维和纺织领域的利润空间.     

Human resource competencies: An empirical assessment

With data from 12,689 associates of human resource (HR) professionals in 1500 businesses in 109 firms, this research represents an extensive assessment of HR competencies. It extends current HR theory and practice in two ways. First, it proposes specific competencies HR professionals may demonstrate to add value to a business. Second, it offers an empirical assessment of how these competencies affect the performance of HR professionals as perceived by their Associates. The results indicate that when HR professionals demonstrate competencies in business knowledge, delivery of HR, and management of change, then HR professionals are perceived by their associates as more effective. © 1995 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

European Agricultural Biotechnology Preferences and Policy: Growth and Trade Implications

European Union policies effectively prohibit the production and consumption of genetically modified agricultural products. This paper examines the prohibition's effects on research and development, innovation, trade flows, and economic growth using a Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson trade model with a neo‐ Schumpeterian approach. Restrictive European Union policies on biotechnology production and consumption result in: an effective export subsidy of capital to the South; changing trade flows; North America being the dominant producer of biotechnology research and development; the South being a dominant producer of biotechnology products; and the European Union being the dominant producer of traditional agricultural products.     

The German inflation and foreign business cycles, 1920–1922

The real fluctuations of the German macroeconomy in the early 1920s differed markedly from those of the other major industrial economies. As the others began a steep depression in 1920, German prices stabilized and the economy grew, led by increased investment in response to the stabilization of the political climate. German income growth increased its trade deficits for about a year and cushioned the onset of the depression abroad. In summer 1921, however, as Germany began paying reparations, inflation restarted and investor confidence ebbed. The German boom strengthened then because exports increased and filled the gap left by lagging investment. As Germany struggled to pay reparations, her export boom worsened the depression of demand in the Allied economies, struggling then to recover from the depression.