Survey-based forecast distributions for Euro Area growth and inflation: ensembles versus histograms

Ensemble methods can be used to construct a forecast distribution from a collection of point forecasts. They are used extensively in meteorology, but have received little direct attention in economics. In a real-time analysis of the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, we compare ensemble methods to histogram-based forecast distributions of GDP growth and inflation in the Euro Area. We find that ensembles perform very similarly to histograms, while being simpler to handle in practice. Given the wide availability of surveys that collect point forecasts but not histograms, these results suggest that ensembles deserve further investigation in economics.     

Gender differences in positive perceptions,anxiety, and depression among mothers and fathers of children with intellectual disabilities: a logistic regression analysis

This study explores gender differences in positive perceptions, anxiety, and depression among mothers and fathers of children with intellectual disabilities (IDs). We examined the relationship between these variables and certain characteristics of both the child (age and severity of disability) and the parents (age, educational level, and employment status). A sample of 60 mother/father couples who had children with IDs completed the Positive Contributions Scale to measure their positive perceptions, and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale to assess their level of anxiety and depression. Bivariate analyses were used to determine differences between fathers and mothers as regards their positive perceptions and levels of anxiety and depression. A logistic regression model was then applied to identify which of the variables might be significant predictors of the gender differences observed among parents. Both mothers and fathers had positive perceptions of their children with IDs that co-existed with symptoms of anxiety and depression, with scores being higher among mothers. The predictive analysis of gender showed that individual variables (such as the employment status of both parents) may explain these differences.     

The role of direct flights in trade costs

Effects of direct flights on trade costs are investigated using micro price data at the city level. After controlling for local retail/distribution costs, traded input prices are obtained to be further used in the measurement of trade costs across cities through arbitrage conditions. The existence of a direct flight enters trade costs regressions negatively and significantly. The results are shown to be robust to the consideration of many control variables, nonlinearities in the effects of distance on trade costs, possible endogeneity of having direct flights between cities and alternative definitions of the data. The direct flights that are shown to be determined by bilateral air services agreements are further shown to reduce trade costs through an endogeneity analysis; the main policy implications are twofold: (i) international trade policies through aviation services, such as Open Skies Agreements of the US, are alternative trade policy tools to reduce international trade barriers; (ii) direct flights facilitate the integration of internal markets as in the case of European Union.     

The Audit Report under Going Concern Uncertainties: An Empirical Analysis

This study explores the value of the audit report in the context of the going concern qualification (GCQ) decision along the joint dimensions of auditor competence and independence. Likelihood of company failure, auditor switch rates, the self-fulfilling prophecy argument and audit firm size are analysed as variables potentially affecting the value of the audit report in a GCQ situation. This study focuses on the outcomes of such decisions: the presence or absence of a GCQ, for a large sample of UK quoted companies over the decade 1977–86. Our results suggest that, unless the likelihood of failure is very high, the probability of a GCQ is very low. We find some evidence in support of an association between the presence of a GCQ and auditor switching but no support for the self-fulfilling prophecy argument. In addition, smaller UK audit firms do not appear to exhibit lower GCQ rates than do large firms. There is some evidence that the issues of auditor competence and independence may be a cause for concern in this context in the UK.     

Performance measurement,modes of evaluation and the development of compromising accounts

In this paper we develop the concept of compromising accounts as a distinctive approach to the analysis of whether and how accounting can facilitate compromise amongst organizational actors. We take the existence of conflicting logics and values as the starting point for our analysis, and directly examine the ways in which the design and operation of accounts can be implicated in compromises between different modes of evaluation and when and how such compromises can be productive or unproductive. In doing so, we draw on Stark’s (2009: 27) concept of ‘organizing dissonance’, where the coming together of multiple evaluative principles has the potential to produce a ‘productive friction’ that can help the organization to recombine ideas and perspectives in creative and constructive ways. In a field study of a non-government organization, we examine how debates and struggles over the design and operation of a performance measurement system affected the potential for productive debate and compromise between different modes of evaluation. Our study shows that there is much scope for future research to examine how accounts can create sites that bring together (or indeed push apart) organizational actors with different evaluative principles, and the ways in which this ‘coming together’ can be potentially productive and/or destructive.     

Testing the impact of predefined and self-defined end anchors on the linearity of the category rating scale

In this research the impact of two types of end anchors on the linearity of the category rating scale is studied. Two functional measurement experiments were carried out, each requiring a different kind of judgement, i.e., job satisfaction ratings and attractiveness ratings. One group of participants rated the stimuli using a category rating scale with fixed anchors, while another group was presented with a self-anchoring category rating scale. The results indicate that researchers can be confident in the ability of both category rating scales to provide linear data. This implies that the different end anchors do not impact on the linearity of the category rating scale.     

Daily diaries in time use surveys. A solution to overcome measurement problems in single-activity events with long characteristic rhythms

Daily diaries are a widely used measurement tool in studies on the use of social time. However, while their high level of accuracy is supported by a lot of research, scholars often voice doubts regarding the validity of the estimates obtained if the characteristic rhythm of the events in question is not completed within a 24-h period. This study attempts to explain why, although these statistics are not wrong, they need to be understood correctly before proceeding with research based on them. To overcome the problem we will propose a solution for new surveys where use of diaries of this type is scheduled. Although this solution is not without limitations, they are much less restrictive than those imposed by traditional daily diaries.     

Wage mobility in Europe. A comparative analysis using restricted multinomial logit regression

The paper investigates cross-country differences in wage mobility in Europe using the European Community Household Panel. We examine the impact of specific wage-setting institutions, such as the collective bargaining and the trade union density, the employment protection regulation and the welfare state regime on wage mobility. We apply a log-linear approach that is very much similar to a restricted multinomial logit model and much more flexible than the standard probit approach that is typically applied in the research on wage mobility. It is shown that the macro-economic context and the aforementioned specific institutions explain a substantial part of the cross-country variation that is larger than the part that regime type explains. The findings also confirm the existence of an inverse U-shape pattern of wage mobility, showing a great deal of low-wage and high-wage persistence in all countries.