Expropriation and direct investment

The paper considers a model in which private foreign investors make direct long-lived capital investments in a small developing country that is subject to stochastic shocks to production. Depending upon the preferences of the host country, we find that expropriation can occur because of either 'desperation or ‘opportunism’. We show that under reasonable assumptions increased investment makes expropriation less likely to occur, and that the level of investment chosen by atomistic foreign investors may be non-optimal.     

Output Expectations and Forecasting of UK Manufacturing

This paper analyses both quarterly data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Survey on respondents’ expectations of recent and forthcoming manufacturing output and monthly Office of National Statistics (ONS) figures on actual manufacturing output within the UK. Quarterly output expectations of the CBI manufacturers are explained from the monthly ONS observations using a bounded rationality approach. The logistic formulation models the diffusion process across respondents. There is a backward-looking CBI Survey perspective, explained by past ONS observations, and a forward-looking perspective, explained from future ONS statistics. Also, the forecasting of monthly manufacturing output from earlier values, along with the quarterly CBI Survey information, is examined and tested against the alternative Pesaran/Thomas method. The study provides econometric evidence for the validity of the logistic model and shows that bounded rationality can explain the formation of predictions among business managers in the UK manufacturing sector. The emerging consensus from the literature, supported by this paper, is that the logistic format is a superior approximation to the true data generating process compared with the earlier standard Anderson/Pesaran/Thomas approach. An adjustment to the Survey is used, which achieves perfect symmetry with up and down versions of the data. The benefits of this adjustment are tested in the forecasting section.

The evaluation of the long-term economic development of the Irkutsk region in the system of the all-Russian forecasting

The long-term forecasting of the development of the Irkutsk region by economic sectors is considered. The evaluations of the structural changes and the interregional relationships by the variants of the potential trends of development of the economy of Siberia and Russia in a whole are presented. The forecast is made by the production output data, which are the basis of the target growth of the final consumption.     

Government bond market: Potential for establishing a system of primary dealers in Russia based on relevant world experience

The paper considers a potential improvement in the stability of the Russian government bond market by establishing a system of primary dealers. The existing world models of primary dealership are identified and their relations with national market peculiarities are determined based on the analysis of statistics and regulatory documents of 22 countries. The revealed regularities allow the authors to propose a private dealership model adapted to the specifics of the domestic economy.     

U.S. Auditors' Perceptions of the PCAOB Inspection Process: A Behavioral Examination

This study examines U.S. auditors' observations of the PCAOB inspection process, and its impact on their work, in order to understand the current U.S. regulatory audit climate. Using 20 interviews with experienced auditors, we consider behavioral factors (e.g., perceived power of and trust in the PCAOB) that can impact the level and form of auditor compliance according to theory from the slippery slope framework on audit regulation (Kirchler et al. 2008; Dowling et al. 2018). Our participants described an audit climate with a powerful regulator. They reported that their desire to receive “clean” inspection reports has had a substantial impact on audit procedures and quality control. However, our participants do not appear to have high trust in the PCAOB, as they questioned aspects of the inspection process and its expectations. Accordingly, we conclude that U.S. public company auditors operate in an antagonistic environment in which auditors perceive the PCAOB has high coercive power. In other words, they comply due to fear of enforcement rather than agreement with the PCAOB's views on audit quality. Some auditors also indicated that they consider both the costs and benefits of compliance. Theoretical intuition implies that any future increases to perceived costs relative to perceived benefits of compliance could ultimately decrease the PCAOB's coercive power and reduce U.S. auditor compliance. Our findings have implications for regulators and researchers interested in understanding behavioral factors that may influence regulatory compliance.     

Are immigrants really attracted to the welfare state? Evidence from OECD countries

This paper examines the impact of fiscal policies on both the size and educational levels of immigrants in destination countries. We find that whether or not a country’s policies are attracting highly educated immigrants goes beyond the issue of the “welfare state”. Immigrants are making important distinctions between the different benefits provided by a receiving country’s government. Health and education spending are found to have a positive impact on the education levels of immigrants while the reverse is true for unemployment and retirement benefits. Welfare programs are found to be insignificant once other government programs/taxes and other factors are taken into account. These results imply that countries should be less concerned about whether they are a “big government” with regards to attracting immigrants, and more concerned with what types of benefits they offer.     

Are Art Auction Estimates Biased?

This article considers whether presale auction estimates are unbiased predictors of price when “no‐sales” are considered utilizing a newly constructed sample of over 500 works by eight early twentieth‐century American artists. Unbiased presale auction estimates in predicting price, while expected, are generally not supported in previous work, but these studies (excepting one) do not include no‐sales in the calculations. In order to study the question, we employ a standard approach that uses an inverse Mills ratio arising from a sample selection probit to correct for selection bias. We find that controlling for selection bias, presale auction estimates appear to be biased downward, and we offer possible reasons for this result.     

Strategic implications of the Soviet‐North Korean alliance

Abstract

Globalization is commonly defined as a strict economic path by most previous works, but it is really a fuzzy concept with unrestrained dimensions. While the ideological location of an incumbent political party is a powerful predictor of its policy position, the role of a political party in the globalization-growth nexus has never been fully empirically investigated. By applying Pedroni's panel cointegration technique instead of a time-series or traditional panel data approach, this paper aims to empirically re-examine the co-movement and the causal relationship among economic growth, the overall globalization index, and its three main dimensions—economic, social, as well as political integrations—by using panel data for 23 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries for 1970 to 2006. Certainly, the political party variable is taken into account as the advanced test is promoted, and we finally discover that all variables move together in the long run. Based on the results of the panel causality test, though the evidence of short-run causality is very weak, it does show long-run unidirectional causality running from the overall index of globalization, economic globalization, and social globalization to growth. Finally, the critical role of the political party is deeply discussed in relation with our results.     

Russian enterprises in mid-2011: Adaptation to the postcrisis environment

The paper analyzes and comments on the results of à regular survey of enterprises in the real sector carried out at the Laboratory of Analysis and Forecasting of Microeconomic Processes, Institute of National Economic Forecasting (INEF), Russian Academy of Sciences.