Inflation and total factor productivity in Germany

Conclusions This paper has found a significant and substantial negative relationship between inflation and economic growth in Germany. Thus, inflation substantially reduced the rate of productivity growth and output growth in Germany. German policymakers, especially the Bundesbank, have emphasized the importance of low inflation rates, and inflation in Germany has been less than in most OECD countries. As a result, Germany has benefitted from relatively high rates of economic growth. But had the Bundesbank succeeded in achieving zero inflation, the underlying rate of productivity growth would have been almost a third higher and output growth about a sixth higher.     

Reforming Hungarian agricultural trade policy: A quantitative evaluation

Reforming Hungarian Agricultural Trade Policy: A Quantitative Evaluation. — In this paper, the authors quantitatively assess the consequences for Hungary of: (i) removing its quantitative import restraints in agriculture, (ii) removing the export subsidy program in agriculture, and (iii) adopting an EU-type “CAP” system in Hungary. The consequences are estimated through the use of a small open economy computable general equilibrium model for Hungary, calibrated to the year 1990. The tariff equivalent of the import licenses was estimated through a detailed price comparisons study, the first of its kind for Hungary. Import protection, export subsidies and a potential CAP system would contribute significantly to the Government's fiscal problems.     

AN ECONOMIC RESPONSE MODEL OF HERBICIDE APPLICATION FOR WEED CONTROL

A biologically realistic model of crop yield response to herbicide application is presented. It includes functions for weed mortality from herbicide application and yield loss due to surviving weeds. The optimal herbicide rate and two types of decision thresholds are derived theoretically and illustrated with empirical examples. Responses of the various decision criteria to changes in parameters are also examined theoretically and empirically. A multidimensional threshold for weeds based on weed density and weed-free yield is presented. The issue of farmers using other than officially recommended herbicide rates is discussed.     

Testing for non-linear dependence in inter-war exchange rates

Testing for Non-Linear Dependence in Inter-War Exchange Rates. — This paper tests weekly inter-war floating exchange rate data for the pound-dollar, pound-franc and pound-reichsmark for non-linearity. Initial tests reveal strong evidence of generic non-linearity in these series and indicate neglected non-linear structure in the residuals of linear representations. Attempts to model this structure using GARCH residual processes have only been partially successful. Thus, two parametric models of such non-linearity were estimated. Comparing the forecasts from these models shows the mean square forecast errors of linear-GARCH and bilinear models to be lower than those from linear forecasts for all series, and that SETAR model forecasts outperform all other models for the pound-dollar.     

Employment response to supply and demand shocks under envy in wage formation

Summary We analyse the impact of wage envy on employment and on its sectorial allocation. A multi-sector general equilibrium model in which externalities among sectors arise through wage envy and decentralized bargaining is presented. In the no externality case, sectorial employment is a function of sectorial productivity and of the disutility of work. In the externality case, sectorial employment is additionally affected by union power in all sectors (with a negative sign even though bargaining is efficient), by the productivity in the other sectors (with an undetermined sign) and by the relative average propensity to consume goods of this sector (with a positive sign).Rijksuniversiteit Limburg, FNRS and Université Catholique de Louvain. I would like to thank Franz Palm for valuable comments on an earlier draft. This paper benefitted also from discussions with Torben Andersen, Jacques Drèze and Henri Sneessens (without implying them in any mistake). The detailed comments of the anonymous referee contributed to a large extent to clarify the exposition of the model.     

Optimal Retirement with Increasing Longevity

We develop an optimizing life‐cycle model of retirement with perfect capital markets. We show that longer healthy life expectancy usually leads to later retirement, but with an elasticity less than unity. We calibrate our model using data from the US and find that, over the last century, the effect of rising incomes, which promote early retirement, has dominated the effect of rising lifespans. Our model predicts continuing declines in the optimal retirement age, despite rising life expectancy, provided the rate of real wage growth remains as high as in the last century.     

Racing in two dimensions

In this paper we study an industry in which there is an ongoing sequence of R&D races between two firms. Firms are engaged in product innovation. Products are horizontally and vertically differentiated. There are two key characteristics/dimensions to products, and the level at which these are embodied in products can be increased by R&D. At each time firms can spend R&D on improving their product in one or both dimensions. We allow the possibility of economies scope — so R&D undertaken in one dimension can spillover to the other. The question we are interested in is whether a firm that is ahead in a single dimension but behind in another will focus all its R&D effort in the area in which it is ahead (product specialisation), or whether it will try to do R&D in both dimensions in the hope that it might get ahead in both and end up with a superproduct that dominates in both characteristics. The outcome of this R&D competition determines a Markov transition probability matrix determining the evolution of the industry. We show that when the R&D technology is characterized by constant returns then the only steady-state outcome is one in which the economy stays forever in a position in which one firm produces a super-product and the other gives up doing R&D altogether. This outcome is unaffected by the degree of economies of scope. When the R&D technology is characterised by decreasing returns, then the industry will visit all states and so will exhibit both product specialisation and superproduct dominance at various times. Now the extent of economies of scope matters and we show that the greater the extent of economies of scope, the less likely is the industry to exhibit product dominance, and the more likely it is to exhibit product specialisation.     

Stock market perceptions of the motives for mergers in cases reviewed by the UK competition authorities: an empirical analysis

A number of studies have considered the motivation of managers to follow a merger strategy. However, as far as we are aware none has looked at the influence of competition regulation on merger motives using stock market data and event study techniques. Data drawn from 63 merger cases in the UK between 1989 and 2003 are examined for the stock market's perceptions of what motivated managers to pursue their initial merger bid. The findings suggest that the Synergy and Hubris dominate as motivations for mergers and that, unintentionally, competition policy may help to reduce the number of mergers motivated by Managerialism. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Policy Implications of the Effects of Concentration and Multimarket Contact in China’s Airline Market

Unlike many other mergers in developed countries, which might have been assessed and their effects estimated by antitrust authorities before being granted antitrust immunity, the airline mergers that swept China’s airline industry in 2002 occurred with no antitrust challenge. These mergers provide the opportunity to study important market power issues in China’s airline markets. Given that increased concentration and multimarket contact are the main legacies of an airline merger, the effects of mergers on these variables can raise the potential for the exercise of market power. However, an examination of the period 2002–2004 during which the Chinese airline mergers occurred shows that the resulting increased concentration and enhanced multimarket contact did not have important consequences for airfares in Chinese city-pair markets. The presence of Hainan Airlines appears to have played an important role in suppressing the airfares charged by China Eastern and China Southern.