Rationality of weather predictions and insurance purchases: testing the gambler’s and hot hand fallacies

Deviations from the rational behaviour assumed in many economic models have been found in a variety of settings. Two such deviations, the gambler’s and hot hand fallacies have been found in lab settings, as well as in consequential real-world decisions. Previous economic experiments have shown that the behaviour of professionals can differ from that of the general population. In this paper, we use data from two experiments conducted with a particular group of professionals who make yearly high-stakes decisions in the face of uncertain weather and market conditions: agricultural producers. In the experiments, participants were asked to make predictions about the coming year’s weather and market conditions and make decisions in a familiar decision context. Results indicate evidence of the gambler’s fallacy, such that participants were less likely to predict a good outcome if the previous outcome(s) were good. We also observe that participants were more likely to gamble if a previous gamble was successful, but find no impact on two successful gambles. These combined results indicate that even professionals with many years of experience can exhibit behaviours that deviate from those assumed by classical models.     

Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend

We estimate the effect of fertility on female labor force participation in a panel of countries using abortion legislation as an instrument for fertility. We find that removing legal restrictions on abortion significantly reduces fertility and estimate that, on average, a birth reduces a woman’s labor supply by almost 2 years during her reproductive life. Our results imply that behavioral change, in the form of increased female labor supply, contributes significantly to economic growth during the demographic transition when fertility declines.      

The Learning Tourism Destination: The potential of a learning organisation approach for improving the sustainability of tourism destinations

Globalisation, increasing complexity, and the need to address triple-bottom line sustainability have seen the proliferation of Learning Organisations (LO) who, by definition, have the capacity to anticipate environmental changes and economic opportunities and adapt accordingly. Such organisations use system dynamics modelling (SDM) for both strategic planning and the promotion of organisational learning. Although SDM has been applied in the context of tourism destination management for predictive reasons, the current literature does not analyse or recognise how this could be used as a foundation for an LO. This study introduces the concept of the Learning Tourism Destinations (LTD) and discusses, on the basis of a review of six case studies, the potential of SDM as a tool for the implementation and enhancement of collective learning processes. The results reveal that SDM is capable of promoting communication between stakeholders and stimulating organisational learning. It is suggested that the LTD approach be further utilised and explored.     

Are Chinese nationals’ attitudes to wildlife tourist attractions different from those of other nationalities?

Many wildlife tourist attractions (WTAs) have negative impacts on animal welfare and species conservation. In the absence of regulation, raising standards requires tourists to create market pressure by choosing to attend WTAs with benefits for wildlife. We surveyed respondents from five countries – China, Australia, Canada, UK, and USA – to quantify how attitudes to captive animals, and towards WTAs’ outputs and standards, may vary with nationality. Our aim was to provide a firm basis for behaviour change interventions to alter current patterns of tourist consumption of WTAs. All respondents agreed on the importance of conservation and animal welfare, but Chinese respondents were twice as likely to believe that WTAs would not be allowed to exist if they were bad for animals, and that WTAs’ promotional materials were reliable indicators of welfare and conservation standards. These findings indicate Chinese respondents had fundamentally similar attitudes to those from the other countries, but differed in how those attitudes were likely to be applied. Chinese tourists may experience more barriers to aligning their actions with their values with respect to WTAs. Removing these barriers may require information campaigns to highlight the lack of regulation, and the unreliability of some WTAs’ promotional materials and tourists’ reviews.     

Progression,Stability, or Decline? Sociological Mechanisms Underlying Change in Specialization Among Birdwatchers

Using a panel of American birdwatchers collected in 1997 and 2002, we tested the extent to which birdwatchers progressed over a five-year period. The impact different career contingencies and life course events had on predicting change in birdwatchers' behavior, skill, and commitment was also examined. Findings indicated that although progression characterized some birdwatchers' participation, involvement by others was better characterized by stability or decline, which was true for each of the indicators used to measure specialization. Career contingencies and life course changes had only a moderate influence on predicting change in the specialization indicators over time. Support from family members and retirement were the best predictors of change in specialization.     

What Would Veblen Say?

It has been more than 100 years since Thorstein Veblen published The Theory of the Leisure Class (TLC). The book was a scathing attack on the greedy leisure class of his day and described how people used wealth to elevate their social position in society. Surprisingly, few researchers use this book to understand leisure in contemporary society. TLC remains as relevant today as it did when first published. In this essay I elucidate some of Veblen's ideas and show how they shed light on leisure spending, emulation among birdwatchers, our display of books, boundary maintenance and social distance, and environmental destruction.     

Policy Environment for the Tourism Sector's Adaptation to Climate Change in the South Pacific – The Case of Samoa

Samoa and its neighbouring Pacific Island Countries are highly vulnerable to climate change risks because their population and infrastructure are mostly located on low-lying coastal areas. Impacts of climate change are potentially disastrous to tourism, the major economic sector in the region. This research examines the conduciveness of the policy environment in Samoa for the tourism sector to adapt to climate change along three dimensions: stakeholders’ will and commitment, resources available, and policy-making mechanisms [Wong, E.P.Y., Mistilis, N., & Dwyer, L. (2011). A framework for analyzing intergovernmental collaboration – the case of ASEAN tourism. Tourism Management, 32, 367–376]. Samoa is used as an exemplar case study to understand how the Pacific island tourism sector can best adapt to climate change. It was found that the policy environment in Samoa is generally conducive. However, there is a strong need for closer public–private cooperation.