Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited

An increasing number of longitudinal data sets collect expectations information regarding a variety of future individual level events and decisions, providing researchers with the opportunity to explore expectations over micro variables in detail. We present a theoretical framework and an econometric methodology to use that type of information to test the Rational Expectations (RE) hypothesis in models of individual behavior. This RE assumption at the micro level underlies a majority of the research in applied fields in economics, and it is the common foundation of most work in dynamic models of individual behavior. We present tests of three different types of expectations using two different panel data sets that represent two very different populations. In all three cases we cannot reject the RE hypothesis. Our results support a wide variety of models in economics, and other disciplines, that assume rational behavior. We would like to acknowledge outstanding research assistance from Huan Ni. The Michigan Retirement Research Center (MRRC) and the TIAA-CREF Institute made this research possible through their financial support of two related projects. Benítez-Silva also acknowledges the financial support from NIH grant AG1298502 on a related project, and also from the Fundación BBVA, and the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology through project number SEJ2005-08783-C04-01, and wants to thank the Department of Economics at the University of Maryland and the Department of Economics at Universitat Pompeu Fabra for their hospitality during the completion of this paper. Three anonymous referees provided excellent comments and suggestions. Any remaining errors are the authors’.     

Is HIT a hit? The impact of health information technology on inpatient hospital outcomes

In an effort to eliminate inefficiencies in the US health care sector, policymakers have made a concerted effort to encourage hospitals and physicians to adopt health information technology (HIT) systems. Using a unique data set on HIT adoption and health outcomes in New York State, we conduct a hospital-level analysis identifying the impact of adopting HIT on inpatient outcomes (rates of adverse drug events and severity-adjusted mortality). Unlike previous studies, the patient population is not restricted to Medicare patients, but covers all ages and insurance types. After controlling for unobserved hospital quality and endogenous HIT adoption, our results suggest that a hospital’s severity-adjusted mortality decreases by 0.3 percentage points. When restricted to the Medicare patients, we find HIT adoption lowers a hospital’s severity-adjusted mortality rate by 0.5 percentage points. We find HIT to have no significant effect on the rate of ADEs.     

Economics at the FTC: The Google-DoubleClick Merger,Resale Price Maintenance,Mortgage Disclosures,and Credit Scoring in Auto Insurance

Economics at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) supports both the competition and consumer protection missions of the agency. In this year’s essay we discuss competition activity with a summary of our work on the Google-DoubleClick merger and recent activity on resale price maintenance, an area in which FTC economists had done significant prior research. On the consumer policy front, we discuss our study of ways to improve mortgage disclosures to facilitate consumer shopping and competition. Finally, we discuss our study of the effects of credit scoring on prices paid for auto insurance with a focus on the effects of scores on different racial and ethnic groups.     

A Behavioral Life-Cycle Approach to Understanding the Wealth Effect

The somewhat surprising strength in consumer spending in recent years has focused renewed attention on the much-debated wealth effect, the notion that when individuals feel wealthier, they consume more. This study utilizes survey data to examine the wealth effect within the context of the behavioral life-cycle model of savings. The results indicate that the likelihood of households spending more when their assets increase in value decreases with the portion of assets held in home equity. This unexpected finding is due to homeowners responding to the perceived wealth gain from increased home values by cashing out their equity. The likelihood increases with the portion of assets held in stock outside of retirement accounts, but is not significantly related to the portion of assets held in stock overall. Moreover, households that have a full-time income earner, are homeowners, have more education, have a younger household head, or expect economic growth, are more likely to report a wealth effect. Households that utilize savings “rules of thumb” are less likely to report a wealth effect. These results can be used to improve the wealth effect specification in consumer demand models and assist firms to target consumer markets.     

Rethinking political correctness

Legal and cultural changes over the past 40 years ushered unprecedented numbers of women and people of color into companies' professional ranks. Laws now protect these traditionally underrepresented groups from blatant forms of discrimination in hiring and promotion. Meanwhile, political correctness has reset the standards for civility and respect in people's day-to-day interactions. Despite this obvious progress, the authors' research has shown that political correctness is a double-edged sword. While it has helped many employees feel unlimited by their race, gender, or religion,the PC rule book can hinder people's ability to develop effective relationships across race, gender, and religious lines. Companies need to equip workers with skills--not rules--for building these relationships. The authors offer the following five principles for healthy resolution of the tensions that commonly arise over difference: Pause to short-circuit the emotion and reflect; connect with others, affirming the importance of relationships; question yourself to identify blind spots and discover what makes you defensive; get genuine support that helps you gain a broader perspective; and shift your mind-set from one that says, "You need to change," to one that asks, "What can I change?" When people treat their cultural differences--and related conflicts and tensions--as opportunities to gain a more accurate view of themselves, one another, and the situation, trust builds and relationships become stronger. Leaders should put aside the PC rule book and instead model and encourage risk taking in the service of building the organization's relational capacity. The benefits will reverberate through every dimension of the company's work.     

Opinions about advertising in Australia: a study of complainants

Advertising expenditure has risen globally and in Australia there has been a 2.7-fold rise in the last 10 years. It is suggested that some advertisements may be ‘unacceptable’, that is unfair, misleading, deceptive, offensive, false or socially irresponsible. Industry and regulatory responses to consumer complaints about these problems must be addressed. This research is concerned with consumer behaviour and consumer complaint behaviour specifically in the area of advertising in Australia. The general findings from the reviewed literature indicated that complainants tend to be older, have attained higher levels of educational qualifications, earn a higher gross weekly income, possess greater degrees of wealth, have higher participant levels of local community involvement and, in general terms, have more resources to avail themselves of in order to allow them to take action when dissatisfied. The results from this research engender a better understanding of the complaining public. Empirical analyses were used for determining the characteristics of people who complain to the Advertising Standards Board and inferred that their opinions regarding advertising differ from members of the general population in four key areas. This research will afford regulatory bodies a better understanding of the complaining public as well as educating marketing communications strategists in effectively reaching their target markets.     

The Rise (and Decline?) of Arab Aid: Generosity and Allocation in the Oil Era

Among non-DAC donors, wealthy Arab states are some of the most prolific contributors of foreign aid. Despite this, relatively little is known about Arab foreign aid. The OECD development database offers a paucity of information, aggregating data for “Arab countries” and “Arab agencies,” without identifying the constituent units of either. A further complication is that Arab donors are not uniformly transparent about their aid efforts, publicizing some of them while keeping other donations secret. In this paper, we advance the state of knowledge of Arab foreign aid in a number of ways. We use AidData to document the trends in reported donations from specific bilateral donors (Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) and multilateral agencies (Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development, Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa, OPEC’s Fund for International Development, and the Islamic Development Bank). Notably, Arab bilateral donors have given less generously over time with aid levels remaining relatively stable despite skyrocketing national wealth. We explore reasons for this decline, including that Arab donors have: shifted their giving from bilateral to multilateral channels, given less as DAC donors have given more, and increased domestic spending at the expense of foreign aid with a view to safeguarding regime security. In addition, we look at the sectoral allocations of Arab bilateral and multilateral organizations, and compare the aid practices of Arab donors to their DAC counterparts. Finally, we suggest why an exclusive focus on aid commitments is problematic where Arab aid is concerned.     

The Restoration Methodology for Valuing Goodwill

A method is proposed by which the goodwill of a business may be valued whenever the conventional accounting method is not available. This ‘restoration’ methodology involves using a combined cost and income approach to value the benefits a hypothetical purchaser of an operating business obtains, by reference to the costs, delays and risks it avoids, by acquiring the operating business rather than the business's identifiable assets alone. Such a value approximates that of the goodwill of the business. To provide some guidance as to how the restoration methodology might be used in a real situation, the actual sale of an interest in the Gove bauxite and alumina joint venture business is considered, where the existence and value of the business's goodwill was a factor in determining whether land‐rich stamp duty was payable in respect of the transaction. When the benefits gained by the purchaser of the Gove business are identified by reference to the costs, delays and risks it avoided by purchasing the business rather than the assets, it is not difficult to understand why such a sophisticated purchaser paid (and a pre‐empted purchaser was prepared to pay) an amount equal to or greater than the value of the business's identifiable assets in order to obtain those benefits.