Virtual Special Issue on Migration

This editorial introduces a virtual special issue of Spatial Economic Analysis compiled to mark the keynote lecture at the 46th Annual Conference of the Regional Science Association International—British and Irish Section in Cornwall by Professor Jacques Poot of the National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, University of Waikato. Professor Poot's lecture on migration, which is also the theme of this virtual special issue, could not be more topical. Migration is a central issue in public discourse in Europe and the United States, and is setting the agenda for political debate throughout the developed world. The ongoing refugee crisis in Europe, the associated rise in populist, nationalist political movements in Europe and the United States, and the recent vote by the UK to leave the European Union all have migration at their centre.     

Strategic transformations in large Irish-owned businesses

This research explores resistance to a universal business organisation by analysing large firms in Ireland. Drawing on our dataset of large Irish firms, a strategy-structure-ownership-performance (SSOP) informed study identifies strategic transformations such as increased internationalisation and changes in ownership regime across three benchmark years of 1978, 1990 and 2010. However large Irish firms are not characterised by convergence to a universal business organisation. This study contributes to the SSOP project by extending it to a new geographic context and, by including sector of activity, by providing a contextually sensitive explanation for the absence of a universally applicable business organisation.     

Peter H. Spitz, ed. The Chemical Industry at the Millennium: Maturity, Restructuring, and Globalization. Philadelphia, Pa.: Chemical Heritage Foundation, 2003. x + 387 pp. ISBN 0-941901-34-3, $45.00 (cloth).

Peter Spitz’s new book is a continuation of his earlierwork, Petrochemicals: The Rise of an Industry (1988), whichdetailed the development of the modern chemical industry beginningin the 1930s. The Chemical Industry at the Millennium picksup the story at the end of the 1970s and examines the momentouschanges that have taken place in the last twenty-five years.Subtitled Maturity, Restructuring, and Globalization, this isan excellent collection of essays by industry     

Virtual special issue on urban development

This virtual special issue of Spatial Economic Analysis marks the keynote lecture at the 47th Annual Conference of the Regional Science Association International – British and Irish Section in Harrogate by Professor Bob Stimson of the University of Queensland, Australia. With over half the world’s population now living in urban areas, which according to the United Nations is expected rise to 66% by 2050, the theme of Professor Stimson’s lecture – urban development – is of critical importance. Cities provide significant opportunities for economic growth and development as long as urban design models are not only effective but also sustainable, inclusive and equitable. This virtual special issue draws together 10 articles from earlier issues of the journal, which inform a successful urban design agenda.     

International mortality modelling—An economic perspective

A recent literature has developed on modelling mortality in multiple populations together. The purpose of this paper is to suggest a reason why mortality in different populations may be related based on an economic literature on technology and knowledge diffusion.     

DO CRISES INDUCE REFORM? A CRITICAL REVIEW OF CONCEPTION,METHODOLOGY AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE ‘CRISIS HYPOTHESIS’

The notion that economic crises induce the adoption of reform ranks among the most widely accepted concepts in the political economics literature. However, the underlying mechanism of the so‐called ‘crisis hypothesis’ has yet to be fully understood. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of the relevant empirical evidence to date, and scrutinizes the operationalization of the hypothesis’ key concepts: crisis, reform and the political mediation of reform during crises. We argue that the social perception of both crises and the subsequent cost of reform requires consideration of how these concepts are operationalized. As a product of the broader economic and institutional environment, social perceptions largely determine the manner in which the political mediation of reform during crises works. Present‐day methodological approaches fail to adequately reflect social perceptions and consequently compromise the determination of what constitutes both crisis and the cost of reform in the context of the crisis hypothesis. Most notably, the identification of crises by fixed thresholds constructed around macroeconomic variables impedes the interpretation of the hypothesis’ underlying mechanism. A fuller treatment of social perception within the operationalization of the hypothesis’ key concepts can enhance our understanding of how economic crises influence political dynamics in bringing about reform.     

British regional growth and sectoral trends: global and local spatial econometric approaches

This article looks beneath the surface of British sub-regional aggregate Gross Value Added (GVA) growth over the period 1995 to 2007, by examining how the differing growth dynamics of the secondary and services sectors have influenced the overall regional growth process. A spatial econometric analysis is undertaken which tests regional secondary and services real GVA per capita for absolute and conditional convergence at the NUTS 3 level. Both local and global spatial analysis techniques are utilized in order to gain a detailed insight into the growth process over the period 1995 to 2007.     

Semi-parametric Bayesian tail risk forecasting incorporating realized measures of volatility

Realized measures employing intra-day sources of data have proven effective for dynamic volatility and tail-risk estimation and forecasting. Expected shortfall (ES) is a tail risk measure, now recommended by the Basel Committee, involving a conditional expectation that can be semi-parametrically estimated via an asymmetric sum of squares function. The conditional autoregressive expectile class of model, used to implicitly model ES, has been extended to allow the intra-day range, not just the daily return, as an input. This model class is here further extended to incorporate information on realized measures of volatility, including realized variance and realized range (RR), as well as scaled and smoothed versions of these. An asymmetric Gaussian density error formulation allows a likelihood that leads to direct estimation and one-step-ahead forecasts of quantiles and expectiles, and subsequently of ES. A Bayesian adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method is developed and employed for estimation and forecasting. In an empirical study forecasting daily tail risk measures in six financial market return series, over a seven-year period, models employing the RR generate the most accurate tail risk forecasts, compared to models employing other realized measures as well as to a range of well-known competitors.     

Louise Hill Curth, ed. From Physick to Pharmacology: Five Hundred Years of British Drug Retailing

From Physick to Pharmacology, Five Hundred years of BritishDrug Retailing is a welcome supplement to a growing body ofwork on the origins and development of British drug manufacture.However, Louise Hill Curth's main concern is not manufacturing,or scientific development, but rather how a wide variety ofdrugs were bought, sold, concocted, advertised and otherwiseused in Britain over the last five centuries. The book is divided into seven chapters, corresponding to fivekey phases in British drug     

Ebb and flow: Structural and spatial change in Victoria's brewing industry, 1870–1900

The brewing industry has undergone profound structural and spatial change over the last 150 years. We examine how consolidation began in Victoria's brewing industry using a historical GIS approach. We argue that industry restructuring was shaped by four interlocking dynamics between 1870 and 1900: (1) structural economic change; (2) railway development; (3) technological innovation; and (4) regulatory reform. We show that the ebb and flow of these interacting dynamics generated a non-linear process of change. Similar to North America and Europe, the industry became highly concentrated. However, this process was complicated by local factors such as climate, economy, and distance.