Monetary policy rules with PID control features: evidence from the UK,USA and EU

ABSTRACT

This paper considers the extent to which the monetary policy operations of three major central banks can be regarded as an application of Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) control rules. The paper outlines the general PID framework and estimates a series of dynamic models to identify how interest rate policy adjustments are affected by the rate of inflation and the level of macroeconomic activity. The paper examines data for the UK, the USA and the Eurozone. The results suggest that the PID rules can provide a useful theoretical and empirical framework for estimating central bank responses to the inflation and macroeconomic activity variables by improving the explanatory power of the Taylor rule model and determining the effect of the parameters.     

Healthcare costs of stroke and major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants

Objective: To assess long-term healthcare costs related to ischemic stroke and systemic embolism (stroke/SE) and major bleeding (MB) events in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) treated with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs).

Materials and methods: Optum’s Clinformatics Data Mart database from 1/2009–12/2016 was analyzed. Adult patients with ≥1 stroke/SE hospitalization (index date) were matched 1:1 to patients without stroke/SE (random index date), based on propensity scores. Patients with an MB event were matched to patients without MB. All patients had an NOAC dispensing overlapping index date, ≥12?months of eligibility pre-index date, and ≥1 NVAF diagnosis. The observation period spanned from the index date until the earliest date of death, switch to warfarin, end of insurance coverage, or end of data availability. Mean costs were evaluated: (1) per-patient-per-year (PPPY) and (2) at 1, 2, 3, and 4?years using Lin's method.

Results: The cost differences were, respectively, $48,807 and $28,298 PPPY for NOAC users with stroke/SE (n?=?1,340) and those with MB (n?=?3,774) events compared to controls. Cost differences of patients with vs without stroke/SE were $49,876, $51,627, $57,822, and $60,691 at 1, 2, 3, and 4?years post-index, respectively (p?p?Limitations: Limitations include unobserved confounders, coding and/or billing inaccuracies, limited sample sizes over longer follow-up, and the under-reporting of mortality for deaths occurring after 2011.

Conclusions: The incremental healthcare costs incurred by patients with vs without stroke/SE was nearly twice as high as those of patients with vs without MB. Moreover, each additional year up to 4?years after the first event was associated with an incremental cost for patients with a stroke/SE or MB event compared to those without an event.     

A Stochastic Overlapping Generations Economy with Inheritance

An overlapping generations model of an exchange economy with two sources of uncertainty is considered. Individuals have a finite expected life span and uncertain annual income. Conditions concerning birth, death, inheritance and bequests are fully specified. Under such conditions, the existence of a stationary Markovian equilibrium is established in some generality, and several explicitly solvable examples are examined in detail. Received August 6, 2001; revised version received March 12, 2002 Published online: November 11, 2002     

A Comparison of Alternative Exchange Rate Forecasting Models*

This paper compares a number of structural and times-series models on the basis of their accuracy in forecasting the A ustralian-US dollar exchange rate out of sample. Purchasing power parity, forward exchange theory, static and dynamic specifications of both the flexible price and sticky price monetary models, and univariate ARIMA models are considered in the paper. Exchange rate forecasts are generated at horizons of one to four quarters. In contrast to overseas results which support the view that the exchange rate follows a random walk, several models in this study are found to generate forecasts superior to the random walk model.     

基于核心能力半径的企业规模边界

企业规模边界的扩张是企业实现增长的一种重要方式,实质是企业能力半径的构建和强化。以核心能力为视角,分析决定企业核心能力半径的因素发现,在不同核心能力半径下,企业规模边界的变动存在规律性变化,企业的能力半径决定了企业规模边界的上限,而核心能力半径决定了企业规模边界的下限。     

An approximation method to derive confidence intervals for quantiles with some applications

Standard jackknife confidence intervals for a quantile Q _y (β) are usually preferred to confidence intervals based on analytical variance estimators due to their operational simplicity. However, the standard jackknife confidence intervals can give undesirable coverage probabilities for small samples sizes and large or small values of β. In this paper confidence intervals for a population quantile based on several existing estimators of a quantile are derived. These intervals are based on an approximation for the cumulative distribution function of a studentized quantile estimator. Confidence intervals are empirically evaluated by using real data and some applications are illustrated. Results derived from simulation studies show that proposed confidence intervals are narrower than confidence intervals based on the standard jackknife technique, which assumes normal approximation. Proposed confidence intervals also achieve coverage probabilities above to their nominal level. This study indicates that the proposed method can be an alternative to the asymptotic confidence intervals, which can be unknown in practice, and the standard jackknife confidence intervals, which can have poor coverage probabilities and give wider intervals.     

Critical creativity criteria for students in higher education: taking the interrelationship effect among dimensions into account

It is known that the overall competitive advantages enjoyed by the Taiwanese higher education system have been decreasing in recent years relative to the educational systems of other countries. In light of aiming to become a kingdom of innovation, how to regain its competitive advantages over the very short term has become a critical issue requiring immediate attention. Based on previous research indicating that improving innovation is among the primary ways of enhancing an education system’s competitive advantages, that creativity is the foundation of innovation, that organizations that truly understand human creativity and are committed to nurturing it and living with the consequences of doing so are those that are most likely to succeed, and that students are a major group to be regarded as the backbone of a nation’s future development, the aim of this study is to explore critical criteria for creativity, which could significantly improve the creativity of college students. Although related studies can be found today, these studies seem to ignore the different effects of different dimensions of creativity evaluation, leading to results that are irrational and not completely suitable for real practice. In this regard, a perception of interrelationships among these dimensions is thus taken into account while calculating weights of evaluation creativity dimensions and criteria. In accordance with the result, the top six explored critical creativity criteria are shown to help enhance today’s college students’ creativity.     

Adjustment, Stabilisation and the Analysis of the Employment Structure in Turkey: An Input- Output Approach

The aim of the paper is to examine the effects on employment of the large-scale structural adjustment programme undertaken by Turkey from the early 1980s onwards. In this respect, we particularly analyse how appropriate the choices of factor intensity after structural adjustment programme have been in the domestic production in comparison with the availability of domestic factor endowment. Our findings show that foreign trade in intermediate goods creates extra use of domestic labour, which can be considered as the labour cost of importing intermediate goods. This is the case in the majority of industries in the pre- and post-liberalisation period in Turkey. However, the capacity of using extra labour as a result of importing intermediate goods appeared to have decreased in the post-liberalisation period.