A clarification of the Goodwin model of the growth cycle

We show that there is a difficulty in the original Goodwin model which is also found in some more recent applications. In it both the labour share and the proportion employed can exceed unity, properties which are untenable. However, we show that the underlying dynamic structure of the model can be reformulated to ensure that these variables cannot exceed unity. An illustrative example extends the original model, and we argue it is both plausible and satisfies the necessary unit box restrictions.     

Sharing the Spoils: Taxing International Human Capital Flows

This paper argues that cross-border human capital flows from developing countries to developed countries over the next half-century will demand a new set of policy responses from developing countries. The paper examines the forces that are making immigration policies more skill-focused, the effect of both flows (emigration) and stocks (diasporas) on the source countries, and the range of taxation instruments available to source countries to manage the consequences of those flows. This paper emphasizes the example of India, a large source country for human capital flows, and the United States, an important destination for these human capital flows and an example of how a country can tax its citizens abroad. In combination, these examples point to the significant advantage to developing countries of potential tax schemes for managing the flows and stocks of citizens who reside abroad. Finally, this paper concludes with a research agenda for the many questions raised by the prospect of large flows of skilled workers and the policy alternatives, including tax instruments, available to source countries.     

Strategic Decentralization and Channel Coordination

In this paper, we show that under certain conditions, strategic decentralization through the addition of a retailer in the distribution channel can increase a manufacturer's profits. The specific case on which we focus is the quantity coordination (double marginalization) problem for a manufacturer selling durable goods in a two-period setting. We show that the standard solution that coordinates a channel for non-durables does not coordinate the channel for durables. In particular, even though a manufacturer can achieve channel coordination by offering per-period, two-part fees, the equilibrium wholesale price in the first period is strictly above the manufacturer's marginal cost. This is in stark contrast to the two-part solution for non-durables where the equilibrium wholesale price is equal to marginal cost. We also identify a strategy that solves both the channel coordination and the Coase problem associated with durable goods. In this strategy, at the beginning of period 1, the manufacturer writes a contract with the retailer specifying a fixed fee and wholesale prices covering both periods. We show that by adding a retailer and using this contract, the manufacturer makes higher profits than it could if it were to sell directly to consumers.     

Taxes,institutions and foreign diversification opportunities

Investors can access foreign diversification opportunities through either foreign portfolio investment (FPI) or foreign direct investment (FDI). The worldwide tax regime employed by the US potentially distorts this choice by penalizing FDI, relative to FPI, in low-tax countries. On the other hand, weak investor protections in foreign countries may increase the value of control, creating an incentive to use FDI rather than FPI. By combining data on US outbound FPI and FDI, this paper analyzes whether the composition of US outbound capital flows reflects these incentives to bypass home and host country institutional regimes. The results suggest that the residual tax on US multinational firms' foreign earnings skews the composition of outbound capital flows — a 10% decrease in a foreign country's corporate tax rate increases US investors' equity FPI holdings by approximately 10%, controlling for effects on FDI. Investor protections also seem to shape portfolio choices, though these results are not robust when only within-country variation is employed.     

Caste in 21st Century India: Competing Narratives

Recent debates regarding inclusion of caste in 2011 Census have raised questions about whether caste still matters in modern India. Ethnographic studies of the mid-20th century identified a variety of dimensions along which caste differentiation occurs. At the same time, whether this differentiation translates into hierarchy remains a contentious issue as does the persistence of caste, given the economic changes of the past two decades. Using data from a nationally representative survey of 41,554 households conducted in 2005, this paper examines the relationship between social background and different dimensions of well-being. The results suggest continued persistence of caste disparities in education, income and social networks.     

BANK HOLDING COMPANY ACQUISITIONS,STOCKHOLDER RETURNS,AND REGULATORY UNCERTAINTY

This paper examines the returns accruing to the bank holding company (BHC) stockholders when an acquisition is initiated by the BHC. There is a significant, positive abnormal return to these shareholders when the acquisition is announced. The magnitude of this return does not depend on the relative size of the acquired firm. Further, the regulatory environment for these BHC acquisitions introduces uncertainty about the eventual outcome of the review process. Upon approval from the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), the BHC stockholders earn an additional, significantly positive abnormal return.     

Effects of Bankruptcy Exemptions and Foreclosure Laws on Mortgage Default and Foreclosure Rates

This study analyzes the effects of state bankruptcy asset exemptions and foreclosure laws on mortgage default and foreclosure rates across different segments of the mortgage market. We found that the effects of these legal provisions are larger for subprime than for prime mortgages and larger for adjustable rate mortgages than for fixed rate mortgages. These results demonstrate that the effect of variation in bankruptcy exemptions and foreclosure laws is most pronounced in the most risky segments of the mortgage market, which are those that have been most affected by the continuing housing slump in the United States.     

凯恩斯的回归:从世界货币到国际国币?

当前的经济危机让人们开始质疑美元作为世界货币的长久性和正当性,呼唤新的"布雷顿森林",这样就将凯恩斯重新带入人们的视野。凯恩斯最初布雷顿森林的提议在于反对"利率在正常金融力量的作用下在全球范围内处于同等水平的导致风险的制度",反对黄金或者其他任何"可自由兑换的世界标准",主张"一个多方管理的世界货币(不单是某个国家的货币)来解决贸易失衡,其认为经济活动复苏有赖于国家经济管理的自主性,而资本控制是关键。凯恩斯的提议基于政治理由(即美国的霸权)被拒绝了,但现实经济的发展和当下的经济危机证实了"国际货币不再可以是单个国家的货币。凯恩斯提议或许是寻求当前危机出路的最好的起跑点,即好国际合作而非霸权才是唯一的出路。