Differencing of random walks and near random walks

The traditional rationale for differencing time series data is to attain stationarity. For a nearly non-stationary first-order autoregressive process—AR (1) with positive slope parameter near unity—we were led to a complementary rationale. If one suspects near non-stationarity of the AR (1) process, if the sample size is ‘small’ or ‘moderate’, and if good one-step-ahead prediction performance is the goal, then it is wise to difference the data and treat the differences as observations on a stationary AR (1) process. Estimation by Ordinary Least Squares then appears to be at least as satisfactory as nonlinear least squares. Use of differencing for an already stationary process can be motivated by Bayesian concepts: differencing can be viewed as an easy way to incorporate non-diffuse prior judgement—that the process is nearly non-stationary—into one's analysis. Random walks and near random walks are often encountered in economics. Unless one's sample size is large, the same statistical analyses apply to either.     

A new century approach for alcohol screen in the insurance industry

Several recent studies point to the value of using combinations of biochemical markers for the identification of alcohol abuse. The Early Detection of Alcohol Consumption (EDAC) test uses a statistical method that combines the results of several routine laboratory tests to form a metabolic fingerprint for each subject. In this study, we evaluated the use of the EDAC test as a screening tool to assess heavy drinking in insurance applicants. The EDAC was calculated by linear discriminate function analysis using the results of 14 routine tests including liver enzymes, lipids, proteins, and blood sugars. We collected and analyzed 1680 random samples at Heritage Laboratories (Olathe, Kan). Alcohol Detection Services (Brookfield, Wis) and Millennium Strategies (Madison, Wis) collaborated in the data analysis and interpretation of laboratory tests results. Ninety-three percent of applicants showed a negative EDAC test. The 7% (n = 134) who screened positive for the EDAC test were then reflexed to carbohydrate deficient transferin (CDT) and whole blood associated acetaldehyde (WBAA). Sixteen percent (22/134) showed a positive confirmatory test. Among these 16% of subjects, 41% (9/22) showed no elevations in liver enzymes or HDL-C results. Four of these subjects were among the top one third with the highest elevations for the CDT test in the entire group and one of them was positive for both the CDT and WBAA tests. These results suggest that the EDAC screen may provide an efficient alternative screening tool for the identification of heavy alcohol consumption not HBA as it identifies applicants with both normal or abnormal liver enzymes and HDL-C.     

Corporate social performance, financial performance and institutional ownership in Canadian firms

This study examines the relationship of corporate social performance (CSP) to financial performance (FP) and institutional ownership. We perform our empirical analyses on a large-sample of publicly held Canadian firms and use a novel independent measure of CSP. Based on tests utilizing four years of panel data, we found no significant relationship between a composite measure of firms’ CSP and FP. However, we found significant relationships between individual measures of firms’ CSP regarding environmental and international activities and FP. Our findings indicate a significant relationship between firms’ composite CSP measure and the number of institutions investing in firms’ stock. In addition, we found significant relationships between firms’ CSP ratings regarding their international activities and product quality and the number of institutions investing in firms’ stock. These findings, while subject to the limitations inherent in the use of specific CSP measures, provide mixed support for the business case for CSP.     

Accounting Discretion in Goodwill Impairments: UK Evidence

This study examines managers’ use of discretion in determining goodwill impairment losses following the mandatory adoption of IFRS 3 “Business Combinations,” and whether this discretion reflects opportunistic reporting by managers or the provision of their private information. Although IFRS 3 was issued to improve the accounting treatment for goodwill and provide users with more useful and value‐relevant information regarding the underlying economic value of goodwill, it has been criticized on the grounds of the managerial discretion inherent in impairment testing. Therefore, ex‐ante, it is unclear how the impairment‐only approach has affected the reporting of goodwill impairment losses. After controlling for economic factors, empirical results reveal that managers are exercising discretion in the reporting of goodwill impairments following the adoption of IFRS 3. Specifically, goodwill impairments are more likely to be associated with recent CEO changes, income smoothing and “big bath” reporting behaviors. However, the results also indicate that goodwill impairments are strongly associated with effective governance mechanisms suggesting that managers are more likely to be exercising their accounting discretion to convey their private information about the underlying performance of the firm rather than acting opportunistically. These inferences are robust to various modeling specifications and variable definitions, suggesting that IFRS 3 has provided managers with a framework to reliably convey their private information about future cash flows consistent with the IASB's objectives in developing the impairment standard.     

Conceptualizing Professionalism

A bstract The main argument presented here is that economics provides a necessary but not sufficient analysis of professionalism. A sufficient analysis can only be generated by recognizing the sociological significance of professionals, and in particular the institutionalization of a professional ethic. In this way we suggest that economics needs sociology to provide an effective conceptualization of professionalism as a form of organization and as a mode of behavior. Equally, however, sociology needs economics, because while the sociological context provides an explanation of the way power is institutionalized, an economic focus is necessary to maintain a role for individual agency. These arguments are illustrated with a discussion of the historical and institutional complexities of professional organization; we look particularly at nursing and certain routinized areas of legal work and accountancy.     

Comparative assessment of tourist generating markets for New Zealand

Portfolio analysis has become a widely used strategic planning tool in many industries during the past decade. Strategic decisions in the tourism industry include issues such as which markets are most attractive (e.g. have greatest visitor expenditure potential); in which markets are a specific country's “products” most competitive; how promotional budgets should be allocated for greatest effectiveness; and what the promotional message should convey. Industry Attractiveness Analysis—a flexible variety of portfolio analysis—has been applied to the generating countries which supply tourists to New Zealand in an illustrative case study. Both national level and individual company applications are described and illustrated in 3 × 3 matrix form. These diagrams are, in themselves, a good communication mechanism which encourages rational, strategic thinking about managerial decisions and resources allocations. Past, present, and future situations can be portrayed in a graphically useful manner.     

Assessing Benefits from Department of Health and National Health Service Research & Development

Public services in the UK are increasingly expected to account for their outputs and performance. This article describes a retrospective evaluation of the benefits from the R&D funded by a regional office of the NHS Executive. The methods adopted enabled the various elements of the region's R&D portfolio to be examined and provided a basis for the development of a plan for regular monitoring. The proposals for implementation are now also feeding into a debate as to how health services R&D might best be monitored nationally in a way that is compatible with the norms and practices of research in other contexts.     

An Analysis of Materiality and Reasonable Assurance: Professional Mystification and Paternalism in Auditing

Critical analyses of the audit profession have become more common in recent years. Many of these analyses focus on the entire audit profession in developing their criticisms and concerns. In this paper, the scope of analysis is narrowed to examine in depth the auditing profession's use of the concepts of reasonable assurance and materiality in audit performance and audit communications. Reasonable assurance and materiality are the terms that auditors use to describe the scope of their responsibility to the public. Similarly, reasonable assurance and materiality are the key determinants of audit effort. An overview of official guidance, practitioner reports, and academic research reveals that these two key concepts are not well specified nor are they consistently applied in audit practice. These findings are evaluated from two competing perspectives on professions – the traditional, functionalist perspective and the critical theorists' perspective. Evaluation from the latter perspective leads to a conclusion that the profession's use of these key terms to guide practice and communication leaves the profession open to charges of mystification and unjustified paternalism.